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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis

DefenseAerospace & Defense
$493.60as of 2026-06-22

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
50
Neutral
Price CAGR
10.4%
1Y Return
+8.6%
Analyst Upside
+22.4%
Rev Growth
0.3%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$588.59+19.2% potential
Bear Case
$367.65
Bull Case
$783.97
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

About Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor by revenue, producing fighter jets (F-35, F-22), missile defense systems (THAAD, Patriot PAC-3), helicopters (Black Hawk, CH-53K), space systems (Orion spacecraft, GPS satellites), and hypersonic weapons. The company is the prime contractor for the F-35 Lightning II, the largest defense acquisition program in history ($1.7 trillion lifetime value). Lockheed benefits from a rising global defense spending cycle driven by geopolitical tensions.

How Lockheed Makes Money

Lockheed earns from four segments: Aeronautics (~40% — F-35, F-16, C-130), Missiles & Fire Control (~17% — HIMARS, Javelin, PAC-3, hypersonics), Rotary & Mission Systems (~24% — Black Hawk, Aegis combat systems, radar), and Space (~19% — Orion, GPS III, missile defense satellites). Revenue comes from US government contracts (~74%), international military sales (~25%), and commercial (~1%). Contracts are typically cost-plus or fixed-price with multi-year duration.

Lockheed Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how Lockheed's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$75.11B
Cost of Revenue
-$67.67B
Gross Profit
$7.44B9.9% margin
Operating Expenses
-$0
Operating Income
$8.26B11.0% margin
Tax & Other
-$3.47B
Net Income
$4.79B6.4% margin
Gross Margin
9.9%
Operating Margin
11.0%
Net Margin
6.4%
EBITDA Margin
12.1%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$117.81B
Enterprise Value
$131.36B
P/E (Trailing)
24.76
P/E (Forward)
15.92
EV / EBITDA
15.12
Price / Sales
1.57
Price / Book
16.79
Revenue
$75.11B
Revenue Growth
0.3%
Earnings Growth
-11.5%
EBITDA
$8.69B
Gross Margin
9.9%
Operating Margin
11.0%
Net Margin
6.4%
Return on Equity
67.6%
Return on Assets
7.2%
Free Cash Flow
$3.99B
Total Cash
$1.80B
Total Debt
$20.30B
Debt / Equity
276.37
Current Ratio
1.14
Quick Ratio
0.91
Beta
0.11
Dividend Yield
2.7%
Payout Ratio
65.4%
Book Value / Share
$32.56

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingHold(22 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$408.00-17.3%
Mean Target$625.16+26.7% upside
High Target$670.00+35.7%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for LMT

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$357.37
-27.6% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$357.37 – $357.37
Average Estimate
$357.37
Potential Downside
-27.6%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

LMT Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Global defense spending is accelerating — NATO allies are increasing budgets to 2%+ of GDP, and Indo-Pacific tensions are driving orders for missile defense and F-35s.
  • F-35 backlog provides decades of revenue visibility — 3,000+ aircraft still to deliver with sustainment and upgrade revenue extending to 2070+.
  • Missile defense and munitions demand surging — HIMARS, Javelin, and PAC-3 production is ramping to replenish inventories depleted by Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
  • Reliable dividend growth (20+ consecutive years of increases) with 2.5%+ yield makes Lockheed attractive for income investors seeking defense exposure.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Defense budget is subject to political cycles — a deficit-focused administration could cut or delay programs, impacting Lockheed's contract pipeline.
  • Fixed-price development contracts (like classified hypersonic programs) create cost overrun risk that can't be passed to the customer.
  • F-35 sustainment costs have been criticized by the Pentagon — pressure to reduce operating costs could compress margins on the company's largest program.
  • Talent competition with tech companies makes it difficult to recruit top engineers, particularly for software-intensive next-generation programs.

What to Watch: LMT Key Metrics

F-35 delivery rate
Backlog growth
International sales mix
Operating margin by segment
Free cash flow and dividend coverage

LMT Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

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