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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis 2026

RestaurantsSpecialty Coffee & Beverages
$104.97as of 2026-08-04

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
42
Neutral
Price CAGR
8.6%
1Y Return
+21.2%
Analyst Upside
+5.2%
Rev Growth
-1.4%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$123.16+17.3% potential
Bear Case
$80.90
Bull Case
$150.68
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is the world's largest coffeehouse chain, operating 38,000+ stores across 80+ countries. The company sells handcrafted espresso drinks, teas, food items, and packaged goods. Unlike McDonald's, Starbucks owns and operates the majority of its stores (~52% company-operated vs ~48% licensed), giving it more control but also more operational exposure. Starbucks is undergoing a significant turnaround under a new leadership team focused on improving speed, simplifying the menu, and reconnecting with the coffeehouse experience.

How Starbucks Makes Money

Starbucks earns from company-operated stores (~82% of revenue — beverage and food sales), licensed stores (~12% — royalties and product sales to licensees), and channel development (~6% — packaged coffee, ready-to-drink products sold through grocery stores via Nestlé partnership). The company's mobile app and rewards program (34M+ active US members) drives 30%+ of US transactions.

Starbucks Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how Starbucks's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$38.34B
Cost of Revenue
-$29.77B
Gross Profit
$8.57B22.3% margin
Operating Expenses
-$3.61B
Operating Income
$4.95B12.9% margin
Tax & Other
-$2.97B
Net Income
$1.98B5.2% margin
Gross Margin
22.3%
Operating Margin
12.9%
Net Margin
5.2%
EBITDA Margin
16.7%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$119.98B
Enterprise Value
$124.89B
P/E (Trailing)
60.84
P/E (Forward)
33.93
EV / EBITDA
20.62
Price / Sales
2.80
Revenue
$38.34B
Revenue Growth
-1.4%
Earnings Growth
85.7%
EBITDA
$6.06B
Gross Margin
22.3%
Operating Margin
12.9%
Net Margin
5.2%
Return on Assets
8.0%
Free Cash Flow
$3.07B
Total Cash
$3.01B
Total Debt
$26.03B
Current Ratio
0.76
Quick Ratio
0.50
Beta
0.97
Dividend Yield
2.4%
Payout Ratio
142.8%
Book Value / Share
$-7.43

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingHold(29 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$69.00-34.3%
Mean Target$110.74+5.5% upside
High Target$125.00+19.1%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for SBUX

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$56.65
-46.0% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$56.65 – $56.65
Average Estimate
$56.65
Potential Downside
-46.0%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

SBUX Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • New leadership's 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is addressing core issues — faster service, simpler menu, and emphasis on the coffeehouse experience should drive traffic recovery.
  • 34M+ US Starbucks Rewards members spend 3x more than non-members — the loyalty program is a powerful data and retention asset.
  • International growth opportunity is massive — China alone has room for 10,000+ stores (currently ~7,000), and underpenetrated markets like India and Southeast Asia add to the runway.
  • Premium brand positioning allows consistent price increases above inflation — customers are willing to pay $6+ for a customized Starbucks drink.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • US same-store sales have been negative as consumers push back on high prices ($6-8 average ticket) and wait times.
  • China business faces intense competition from Luckin Coffee (16,000+ stores vs Starbucks' 7,000) and a weak Chinese consumer economy.
  • Company-operated store model means Starbucks bears wage inflation, benefits costs, and unionization pressure directly — unlike franchise models.
  • Menu complexity has created operational bottlenecks — customized drinks take longer to make, frustrating both customers and baristas.

What to Watch: SBUX Key Metrics

US same-store sales growth
China comparable store sales
Mobile order as % of transactions
Rewards member growth
New store openings

SBUX Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

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SBUX — Related Investment Themes

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