LIVE
MRNA
Moderna, Inc. · Healthcare
$63.96
+39.90% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NVAX
Novavax, Inc. · Healthcare
$9.13
+2.58% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
MRNA
2
NVAX
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
MRNA ✓42.5
NVAX 24.2
1Y Return
MRNA ✓+150.33%
NVAX +44.92%
Fwd P/E
MRNA -11.87
NVAX ✓-16.83
Target Up.
MRNA -13.24%
NVAX ✓+54.58%
Op. Margin
MRNA -131.10%
NVAX N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
MRNA vs NVAX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Moderna and Novavax are both companies whose fortunes were transformed by COVID vaccine development, but Moderna has a broader platform and stronger pipeline than Novavax. Moderna's mRNA technology is versatile across infectious diseases, oncology, and rare disease. Novavax's protein subunit COVID vaccine has had limited commercial success and depends on Sanofi partnership for its forward strategy. Moderna is a higher-quality speculative biotech; Novavax is a smaller, more distressed COVID vaccine story.
MRNA vs NVAX is the mRNA pioneer with RSV, influenza, and personalized cancer vaccine pipeline beyond COVID (Moderna) versus the protein subunit COVID vaccine company dependent on Sanofi partnership for commercial viability (Novavax) — platform breadth and pipeline diversity versus single-product COVID dependency.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
MRNA and NVAX are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+150.33% vs +44.92%), though NVAX trades at the lower forward P/E (-16.83x vs -11.87x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVAX (+54.58%) than for MRNA (-13.24%).
Normalized 1Y performance
MRNA
NVAX
Recent returns
MRNA
NVAX
Analyst price targets & sentiment
MRNA
Price target range
analyst mean$43.30
current price$63.96
-13.2% upside to analyst mean
NVAX · 9 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$7.00
analyst high$25.00
analyst mean$14.11
current price$9.13
+54.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
MRNA may suit investors who:
- →prefer mRNA platform biotech with RSV, influenza, and personalized cancer vaccine pipeline providing multiple commercial product opportunities beyond COVID
- →value mRNA platform speed and versatility for pandemic preparedness — a strategic asset as new infectious disease threats emerge
- →want biotech speculation with meaningful pipeline optionality across infectious disease and oncology modalities on the same mRNA platform
- →are comfortable with COVID revenue decline, cash burn, and pipeline execution risk across multiple Phase 3 programs
NVAX may suit investors who:
- →prefer traditional protein subunit vaccine technology with Sanofi partnership providing manufacturing and distribution capabilities
- →value Novavax as a highly speculative turnaround story if Sanofi's COVID/influenza combination vaccine partnership produces commercial success
- →want smaller-cap biotech speculation with potential Sanofi milestone payments providing near-term cash runway
- →are comfortable with very high execution risk, limited commercial track record vs Moderna/Pfizer, and structural dependence on Sanofi partnership for survival
Performance & AI score
| Metric | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 42.5 | 24.2 |
| AI rank | #851 | #3239 |
| Latest close | $63.96 | $9.13 |
| 1M return | +39.90% | +2.58% |
| 6M return | +109.64% | +39.82% |
| 1Y return | +150.33% | +44.92% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $25.18K (+151.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $14.49K (+44.9%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $3.07K (-69.3%) started 2021-06-21 | $523.48 (-94.8%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $34.39K (+243.9%) started 2018-12-07 | $670.34 (-93.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $19.8B | $1.5B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | -11.87 | -16.83 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 2.52 |
| EV/Revenue | 7.14 | 1.71 |
| Analyst target | $43.30 | $14.11 |
| Target upside | -13.24% | +54.58% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 260.20% | -79.10% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | -0.90% | +9.82% |
| Operating margin | -131.10% | N/A |
| Profit margin | -143.55% | -14.73% |
| ROIC proxy | -36.56% | N/A |
| Return on equity | -36.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.03 | 2.41 |
| Debt/equity | 17.52 | N/A |
| Current ratio | 2.41 | 2.48 |
| Quick ratio | 2.23 | 2.38 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
MRNA max drawdown35.51%
NVAX max drawdown35.94%
MRNA max wkly drop19.17%
NVAX max wkly drop22.55%
5Y risk snapshot
MRNA max drawdown95.38%
NVAX max drawdown98.61%
MRNA max wkly drop33.81%
NVAX max wkly drop39.76%
10Y risk snapshot
MRNA max drawdown95.38%
NVAX max drawdown98.82%
MRNA max wkly drop33.81%
NVAX max wkly drop83.44%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +151.81% | +44.92% |
| CAGR | +152.14% | +44.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.66 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdown | 35.51% | 35.94% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.28% | 12.70% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.17% | 22.55% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -69.29% | -94.77% |
| CAGR | -21.06% | -44.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.09 | -0.11 | |
| Max drawdown | 95.38% | 98.61% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.01% | 34.30% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.81% | 39.76% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +243.87% | -93.30% |
| CAGR | +17.82% | -23.70% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdown | 95.38% | 98.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.01% | 84.53% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.81% | 83.44% |
Business comparison
| Category | MRNA | NVAX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Moderna, Inc. | Novavax, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Moderna is an mRNA biotechnology company best known for developing one of the first COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax). Moderna's mRNA platform is its core technology — using messenger RNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that trigger immune responses. Beyond COVID, Moderna is advancing mRNA vaccines for RSV (Mresvia approved), influenza, and personalized cancer vaccines (in partnership with Merck). Moderna's pipeline spans infectious disease and oncology, betting the mRNA platform will produce multiple commercial vaccines beyond COVID. | Novavax makes protein subunit vaccines — traditional-technology vaccines that use protein nanoparticles rather than mRNA. Novavax's COVID vaccine (Nuvaxovid) was approved as a non-mRNA COVID option for individuals concerned about mRNA vaccines. Unlike Moderna, Novavax has been struggling commercially — Nuvaxovid's late approval and smaller marketing infrastructure limited market penetration. Novavax entered a partnership with Sanofi for COVID/influenza combination vaccine development. Novavax's pipeline is narrower than Moderna's. |
| Investor focus | Investors track COVID vaccine revenue (declining), RSV vaccine (Mresvia) market penetration, influenza mRNA vaccine pipeline timelines, and the personalized cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157 with Merck) clinical progress. | Investors track COVID vaccine sales, Sanofi partnership milestones and payments, and whether the Sanofi combination vaccine collaboration can provide a sustainable commercial future. |
MRNA strengths
- →mRNA platform speed advantage — Moderna can design and manufacture new vaccines faster than traditional platforms, useful for pandemic response and annual strain updates
- →RSV vaccine (Mresvia) is approved and commercializing in adults 60+ — adding a second commercial product beyond COVID
- →Personalized cancer vaccine with Merck (mRNA-4157/V940 for melanoma) is in Phase 3 — if successful, creates an entirely new oncology modality
NVAX strengths
- →Protein subunit technology provides a traditional vaccine option for mRNA-hesitant populations — a distinct positioning vs Moderna and Pfizer mRNA vaccines
- →Sanofi partnership provides manufacturing capabilities and distribution relationships Novavax couldn't build independently
- →COVID + influenza combination vaccine in development with Sanofi could address combination vaccine market preferences
Risks to watch — MRNA
- →COVID vaccine revenue is declining rapidly — without RSV and influenza pipeline success, Moderna faces significant revenue decline as its only major commercial product shrinks
- →Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA COVID vaccines compete directly; GSK and Sanofi compete in RSV; Pfizer mRNA dominates influenza mRNA pipeline
- →Moderna has been burning significant cash — without revenue recovery from new products, the balance sheet will require raising capital
Risks to watch — NVAX
- →Novavax's COVID commercial performance has been very weak — limited market penetration and smaller scale than Pfizer/Moderna competitors
- →Cash burn is significant — Novavax has been dependent on COVID advance purchase agreements and the Sanofi partnership for revenue
- →Protein subunit vaccines' advantage (mRNA-hesitancy addressable market) is narrower than mRNA's broader pandemic preparedness application
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