LIVE
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. · Technology
$3.92
+2.08% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc. · Technology
$128.47
-5.02% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
BBAI
1
PLTR
2
Comparison scoreboard
PLTR LEADS 2/5AI Score
BBAI 23.1
PLTR ✓58.9
1Y Return
BBAI ✓-1.01%
PLTR -7.04%
Fwd P/E
BBAI N/A
PLTR 61.52
Target Up.
BBAI +36.05%
PLTR ✓+43.55%
Op. Margin
BBAI N/A
PLTR 46.18%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
BBAI vs PLTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BigBear.ai and Palantir both serve defense and government AI analytics markets, but at vastly different scales and maturity levels. Palantir is a proven, GAAP-profitable AI platform company with $2B+ in revenue and growing US commercial AIP business. BigBear.ai is a smaller, pre-profitability defense AI specialist with sub-$200M revenue competing for a subset of the same contracts. This is an asymmetric comparison.
BBAI vs PLTR is a small defense AI specialist (BigBear.ai) versus the dominant defense and commercial AI platform company (Palantir) — Palantir's GAAP profitability, AIP commercial momentum, and platform depth create an overwhelming scale advantage over BigBear.ai in the defense AI analytics market.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
PLTR holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BBAI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-1.01% vs -7.04% for PLTR). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PLTR (+43.55%) than for BBAI (+36.05%).
Normalized 1Y performance
BBAI
PLTR
Recent returns
BBAI
PLTR
Analyst price targets & sentiment
BBAI · 3 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$5.00
analyst high$6.00
analyst mean$5.33
current price$3.92
+36.1% upside to analyst mean
PLTR · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (3.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$40.00
analyst mean$183.73
current price$128.47
+43.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
BBAI may suit investors who:
- →prefer a small-cap speculative defense AI analytics company with potential acquisition target value
- →value BigBear.ai's specific expertise in supply chain analytics and identity verification for defense use cases
- →want high-risk, high-upside exposure to defense AI adoption at a fraction of Palantir's scale and valuation
- →are comfortable with significant operating losses, intense competition from Palantir, and limited platform development investment capacity
PLTR may suit investors who:
- →prefer the dominant defense and commercial AI platform with GAAP profitability and US commercial AIP growth acceleration
- →value Palantir's unassailable government customer relationships from decades of classified defense and intelligence deployments
- →want enterprise AI platform exposure with S&P 500 index inclusion supporting institutional buying from GAAP profitability
- →are comfortable with 100x+ earnings premium valuation requiring sustained US commercial AIP growth to justify
Performance & AI score
| Metric | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 23.1 | 58.9 |
| AI rank | #3747 | #183 |
| Latest close | $3.92 | $128.47 |
| 1M return | +2.08% | -5.02% |
| 6M return | -27.94% | -27.54% |
| 1Y return | -1.01% | -7.04% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.9K (-1.0%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.18K (-8.2%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $3.98K (-60.2%) started 2021-06-18 | $50.54K (+405.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $3.99K (-60.1%) started 2021-04-05 | $135.23K (+1252.3%) started 2020-09-30 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.88B | $306.83B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 142.21 |
| Forward P/E | N/A | 61.52 |
| Price/Sales | 14.74 | 96.76 |
| EV/Revenue | 12.34 | 57.26 |
| Analyst target | $5.33 | $183.73 |
| Target upside | +36.05% | +43.55% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -0.90% | 84.70% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | 325.00% |
| EPS growth | N/A | +325.00% |
| FCF margin | -46.71% | +33.56% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 46.18% |
| Profit margin | -226.69% | 43.67% |
| ROIC proxy | -58.43% | 32.59% |
| Return on equity | -58.43% | 32.59% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | N/A |
| Beta | 3.08 | 1.51 |
| Debt/equity | 3.05 | 2.48 |
| Current ratio | 6.08 | 6.91 |
| Quick ratio | 5.80 | 6.82 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
BBAI max drawdown65.88%
PLTR max drawdown38.22%
BBAI max wkly drop26.09%
PLTR max wkly drop15.63%
5Y risk snapshot
BBAI max drawdown95.01%
PLTR max drawdown79.14%
BBAI max wkly drop47.33%
PLTR max wkly drop38.89%
10Y risk snapshot
BBAI max drawdown95.01%
PLTR max drawdown84.62%
BBAI max wkly drop47.33%
PLTR max wkly drop38.89%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -1.01% | -8.21% |
| CAGR | -1.01% | -8.22% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.41 | 0.00 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.88% | 38.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.80% | 11.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.09% | 15.63% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -60.16% | +405.39% |
| CAGR | -16.81% | +38.34% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.42 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdown | 95.01% | 79.14% | |
| Max daily drop | 39.62% | 21.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 47.33% | 38.89% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -60.12% | +1252.32% |
| CAGR | -16.20% | +57.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.41 | 0.93 | |
| Max drawdown | 95.01% | 84.62% | |
| Max daily drop | 39.62% | 21.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 47.33% | 38.89% |
Business comparison
| Category | BBAI | PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. | Palantir Technologies Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | BigBear.ai provides AI-powered analytics and decision intelligence for US government and defense customers — particularly intelligence analysis, supply chain optimization, and identity verification. Its platforms process large volumes of data to deliver actionable insights for military logistics, border security, and intelligence operations. BigBear.ai competes in the defense AI application market alongside Palantir, but at a much smaller scale (sub-$200M revenue). | Palantir is a leading AI and data analytics platform company with US government (Gotham for defense/intelligence), commercial (Foundry/AIP for enterprises), and international operations. Its AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) integrating LLMs into Palantir's data infrastructure is a major commercial growth driver. Palantir has proven profitable on a GAAP basis — a significant milestone distinguishing it from most AI software peers. US commercial revenue is its fastest-growing segment. |
| Investor focus | Investors track contract wins with DoD and intelligence agencies, revenue growth rate, gross margin, and the path to profitability as BigBear.ai scales its government AI analytics platform. | Investors track US commercial AIP revenue growth, US government contract value and new awards, international government expansion, and GAAP profitability improvement as the foundation for being included in major indices. |
BBAI strengths
- →Specific domain expertise in defense supply chain optimization and intelligence analytics — use cases where general-purpose AI tools require significant customization
- →Long-standing government relationships with DoD and intelligence community customers who value continuity and security clearances
- →Smaller scale allows BigBear.ai to compete for mid-tier contract opportunities that larger contractors view as sub-threshold
PLTR strengths
- →GAAP profitability differentiates Palantir from virtually all peer AI software companies, enabling index inclusion and institutional ownership
- →AIP platform integrating LLMs into enterprise data workflows is one of the most commercially deployed enterprise AI tools
- →Government installed base from decades of classified defense and intelligence work provides an unassailable customer relationship moat
Risks to watch — BBAI
- →Revenue scale ($150–200M) is a fraction of Palantir's — limited ability to invest in platform development at comparable rates
- →Palantir competes directly for the same defense AI contracts with much greater financial resources and platform maturity
- →Not profitable — operating losses require successful contract expansion to achieve breakeven
Risks to watch — PLTR
- →Premium valuation (100x+ earnings) requires sustained above-market growth in US commercial to maintain
- →Dependence on large government contracts means any shift in DoD AI procurement strategy significantly impacts revenue
- →AIP faces competition from Microsoft Copilot, Salesforce Agentforce, and AWS SageMaker in the enterprise AI workflow market
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