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PGR
The Progressive Corporation · Financials - Auto Insurance
$204.87
+0.99% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
CB
Chubb Limited · Financials - Global P&C Insurance
$323.40
-2.04% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
PGR
2
CB
3
Comparison scoreboard
CB LEADS 3/5AI Score
PGR ✓58.3
CB 51.1
1Y Return
PGR -22.91%
CB ✓+13.95%
Fwd P/E
PGR 12.54
CB ✓11.22
Target Up.
PGR ✓+13.66%
CB +5.15%
Op. Margin
PGR 16.39%
CB ✓20.64%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
PGR vs CB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PGR (Progressive) and CB (Chubb) are both leading P&C insurers but serve different markets with different competitive models — Progressive is the auto insurance innovator with telematics-driven pricing and direct-to-consumer distribution, while Chubb is the global commercial and specialty insurer with high-net-worth personal lines and multinational corporate risk capabilities. Progressive is concentrated in personal auto; Chubb is diversified globally.
PGR vs CB is auto insurance technology disruption (Progressive's data science and telematics enabling more accurate risk pricing for personal auto growth) versus global commercial and specialty P&C excellence (Chubb's underwriting discipline and global commercial insurance scope serving corporations and high-net-worth individuals) — focused auto market innovation versus global insurance breadth.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
CB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CB leads on both 1-year return (+13.95%) and forward P/E (11.22x vs 12.54x for PGR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CB leads on both revenue growth (10.20%) and operating margin (20.64%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PGR (+13.66%) than for CB (+5.15%).
Normalized 1Y performance
PGR
CB
Recent returns
PGR
CB
Analyst price targets & sentiment
PGR
Price target range
analyst mean$230.86
current price$204.87
+13.7% upside to analyst mean
CB
Price target range
analyst mean$345.04
current price$323.40
+5.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
PGR may suit investors who:
- →Want the fastest-growing major U.S. auto insurer with a long track record of superior underwriting through data science, telematics, and actuarial innovation
- →Value Progressive's Snapshot telematics program as a competitive data advantage that improves risk selection — allowing Progressive to attract lower-risk drivers while avoiding higher-risk ones
- →Believe Progressive's technology investment in pricing and distribution provides a durable competitive moat in the large, commoditized personal auto insurance market
CB may suit investors who:
- →Want the world's largest publicly traded P&C insurer with global commercial insurance capabilities, specialty lines expertise, and high-net-worth personal insurance for wealthy individuals
- →Value Chubb's consistently superior underwriting discipline and combined ratios as reflecting a conservative corporate culture that prioritizes long-term profitability over growth at any cost
- →Seek global insurance market diversification — Chubb's 54-country presence provides exposure to insurance market growth in Asia, Latin America, and other developing regions alongside its established U.S. and European businesses
Performance & AI score
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 58.3 | 51.1 |
| AI rank | #195 | #397 |
| Latest close | $204.87 | $323.40 |
| 1M return | +0.99% | -2.04% |
| 6M return | -9.86% | +3.34% |
| 1Y return | -22.91% | +13.95% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.87K (-21.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.46K (+14.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $23.91K (+139.1%) started 2021-06-21 | $22.87K (+128.7%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $100.74K (+907.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $37.04K (+270.4%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $118.51B | $127.27B |
| Trailing P/E | 10.33 | 11.60 |
| Forward P/E | 12.54 | 11.22 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 1.40 | 2.48 |
| Analyst target | $230.86 | $345.04 |
| Target upside | +13.66% | +5.15% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.70% | 10.20% |
| Earnings growth | 9.80% | 78.70% |
| EPS growth | +9.80% | +78.70% |
| FCF margin | +17.34% | +20.70% |
| Operating margin | 16.39% | 20.64% |
| Profit margin | 12.93% | 18.53% |
| ROIC proxy | 37.90% | 15.43% |
| Return on equity | 37.90% | 15.43% |
| Dividend yield | 6.84% | 1.24% |
| Beta | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equity | 26.17 | 31.46 |
| Current ratio | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Quick ratio | 0.24 | 0.19 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
PGR max drawdown28.65%
CB max drawdown9.62%
PGR max wkly drop9.08%
CB max wkly drop5.66%
5Y risk snapshot
PGR max drawdown34.60%
CB max drawdown19.26%
PGR max wkly drop12.83%
CB max wkly drop9.23%
10Y risk snapshot
PGR max drawdown34.60%
CB max drawdown42.59%
PGR max wkly drop13.56%
CB max wkly drop24.86%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -21.30% | +14.62% |
| CAGR | -21.33% | +14.64% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.10 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.65% | 9.62% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.85% | 3.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.08% | 5.66% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +127.44% | +115.49% |
| CAGR | +17.89% | +16.62% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.61 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.60% | 19.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.12% | 7.20% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.83% | 9.23% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +696.92% | +207.63% |
| CAGR | +23.08% | +11.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.60% | 42.59% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.12% | 16.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.56% | 24.86% |
Business comparison
| Category | PGR | CB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Progressive Corporation | Chubb Limited |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Progressive is the third-largest U.S. auto insurer by premium volume and one of the fastest-growing — known for insurance comparison technology (Snapshot telematics, rate comparison tools), direct-to-consumer distribution (online and phone), independent agent channel, and data-driven underwriting that uses driving behavior data to price risk more accurately than traditional actuarial methods. | Chubb is the world's largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer — providing commercial insurance (property, casualty, marine, workers' compensation), personal insurance for high-net-worth individuals (private client group), specialty insurance (professional liability, cyber), and accident and health insurance globally across 54 countries. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Progressive's combined ratio (claims and expenses as a percentage of premiums — below 100% is profitable underwriting), premium growth rate, policies in force, and Snapshot telematics adoption as a competitive advantage in risk selection. | Investors track Chubb's combined ratio (typically one of the best in the industry), premium growth across commercial and personal lines, catastrophe loss experience, reserve development, capital management, and the diversification of its global commercial portfolio. |
PGR strengths
- →Actuarial and data science leadership — Progressive has a long history of underwriting innovation, building the industry's most sophisticated pricing models that accurately identify and price risk, enabling profitable growth in markets where competitors lose money
- →Telematics technology advantage — Progressive's Snapshot program (usage-based insurance tracking driving behavior) gives Progressive data that traditional risk factors (age, gender, location) cannot capture, improving risk selection for lower-cost drivers and avoiding high-risk ones
- →Multi-channel distribution combining direct (online, phone) and independent agent distribution gives Progressive the broadest market coverage of any auto insurer
CB strengths
- →Underwriting discipline and conservative culture — Chubb consistently achieves combined ratios below industry averages, reflecting decades of underwriting discipline and refusal to write business below adequate pricing
- →High-net-worth personal lines differentiation — Chubb's private client division serves wealthy individuals with specialized coverage (fine art, jewelry, luxury homes, automobiles) at premium pricing unavailable in standard personal lines markets
- →Global commercial insurance scale — Chubb's multinational corporate insurance capabilities (writing complex risks across dozens of countries) serve large corporations that need global insurance programs from a single carrier
Risks to watch — PGR
- →Auto insurance profitability is cyclical — when claims inflation (medical costs, repair costs, litigation) rises faster than premiums, the industry becomes unprofitable; Progressive's strong actuarial capability helps but doesn't eliminate cyclicality
- →Auto repair cost and medical cost inflation — Progressive's combined ratio is sensitive to severity (cost per claim) trends in auto repair, rental, and medical treatment
- →Competition from State Farm, Geico (Berkshire), and Allstate requires Progressive to maintain pricing discipline while growing policies — balancing growth with profitability is an ongoing tension
Risks to watch — CB
- →Catastrophe exposure risk — Chubb has significant property insurance exposure to natural catastrophe events (hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires) that can produce large losses in severe weather years
- →Commercial insurance market cycle — Chubb's commercial premiums are tied to the P&C market cycle; soft market conditions create underwriting pressure across the industry
- →Cyber insurance volatility — Chubb's growing cyber insurance book is subject to rapidly evolving threat environments; ransomware and data breach frequency can cause unexpected loss emergence in cyber underwriting
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