LIVE
SPGI
S&P Global Inc. · Financials
$410.92
+0.13% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
MCO
Moody's Corporation · Financials
$450.67
+3.72% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SPGI
2
MCO
3
Comparison scoreboard
MCO LEADS 3/5AI Score
SPGI 49.7
MCO ✓50.1
1Y Return
SPGI -17.99%
MCO ✓-4.36%
Fwd P/E
SPGI ✓18.87
MCO 24.08
Target Up.
SPGI ✓+27.42%
MCO +19.68%
Op. Margin
SPGI 44.28%
MCO ✓45.74%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
SPGI vs MCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
S&P Global and Moody's are the two companies that together control the global credit rating market — a regulatory duopoly with unparalleled pricing power and market share stability. Both have diversified into financial data and analytics (S&P Market Intelligence/Moody's Analytics) providing subscription revenue to offset credit rating cycle volatility. S&P is larger with the S&P 500 index licensing advantage; Moody's is slightly more focused on analytics software growth. Both are exceptional long-term compounders.
SPGI vs MCO is the credit rating and financial data behemoth with S&P 500 index licensing and IHS Markit data integration creating comprehensive financial information platform (S&P Global) versus the credit rating and financial risk analytics company with Moody's Analytics subscription software providing earnings stability alongside the rating duopoly (Moody's) — larger diversified financial information empire vs focused rating and risk analytics duopoly partner.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
MCO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MCO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-4.36% vs -17.99%), though SPGI trades at the lower forward P/E (18.87x vs 24.08x). On fundamentals, SPGI is growing revenue faster (10.40%), while MCO maintains the higher operating margin (45.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPGI (+27.42%) than for MCO (+19.68%).
Normalized 1Y performance
SPGI
MCO
Recent returns
SPGI
MCO
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SPGI · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst high$627.00
analyst mean$533.76
current price$410.92
+27.4% upside to analyst mean
MCO
Price target range
analyst mean$536.00
current price$450.67
+19.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPGI may suit investors who:
- →prefer the larger and more diversified financial information company with S&P 500 index licensing creating passive revenue growth from every new dollar of index investing globally
- →value S&P Global's IHS Markit integration adding commodity, automotive, and financial data businesses beyond credit ratings and indices
- →want the credit rating duopoly plus a larger financial data platform providing multiple revenue streams beyond bond issuance cycles
- →are comfortable with bond issuance cycle revenue volatility, IHS Markit integration execution complexity, and MSCI competition in international index licensing
MCO may suit investors who:
- →prefer the focused credit rating and financial risk analytics company with Moody's Analytics subscription software providing counterbalance to rating cycle volatility
- →value Moody's simpler two-segment structure (MIS rating + MA analytics) as a cleaner credit rating plus growing software business
- →want credit rating duopoly exposure with Moody's Analytics high-growth KYC, risk, and compliance software as the primary long-term growth driver
- →are comfortable with MIS credit rating cyclicality, Moody's Analytics margin development investments, and AI disruption possibility for credit risk analysis (though regulatory protection is strong)
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 49.7 | 50.1 |
| AI rank | #493 | #467 |
| Latest close | $410.92 | $450.67 |
| 1M return | +0.13% | +3.72% |
| 6M return | -19.52% | -9.69% |
| 1Y return | -17.99% | -4.36% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.18K (-18.2%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.58K (-4.2%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.96K (+9.6%) started 2021-06-21 | $13.56K (+35.6%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $45.25K (+352.5%) started 2016-06-20 | $54.53K (+445.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $124B | $78.23B |
| Trailing P/E | 26.53 | 32.15 |
| Forward P/E | 18.87 | 24.08 |
| Price/Sales | 10.99 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 8.97 | 10.70 |
| Analyst target | $533.76 | $536.00 |
| Target upside | +27.42% | +19.68% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 10.40% | 8.10% |
| Earnings growth | 32.50% | 7.80% |
| EPS growth | +32.50% | +7.80% |
| FCF margin | +33.69% | +28.78% |
| Operating margin | 44.28% | 45.74% |
| Profit margin | 30.36% | 31.69% |
| ROIC proxy | 13.94% | 71.36% |
| Return on equity | 13.94% | 71.36% |
| Dividend yield | 0.93% | 0.92% |
| Beta | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equity | 38.39 | 235.54 |
| Current ratio | 0.68 | 1.16 |
| Quick ratio | 0.57 | 0.99 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPGI max drawdown30.73%
MCO max drawdown23.61%
SPGI max wkly drop16.77%
MCO max wkly drop13.07%
5Y risk snapshot
SPGI max drawdown39.76%
MCO max drawdown41.66%
SPGI max wkly drop16.77%
MCO max wkly drop15.38%
10Y risk snapshot
SPGI max drawdown39.76%
MCO max drawdown42.02%
SPGI max wkly drop20.46%
MCO max wkly drop23.46%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -18.25% | -4.22% |
| CAGR | -18.27% | -4.22% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.74 | -0.20 | |
| Max drawdown | 30.73% | 23.61% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.27% | 8.90% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.77% | 13.07% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +6.16% | +31.08% |
| CAGR | +1.20% | +5.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.01 | 0.17 | |
| Max drawdown | 39.76% | 41.66% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.27% | 9.03% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.77% | 15.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +315.61% | +398.27% |
| CAGR | +15.32% | +17.43% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdown | 39.76% | 42.02% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.19% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.46% | 23.46% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPGI | MCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | S&P Global Inc. | Moody's Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | N/A |
| Core business | S&P Global provides credit ratings (S&P Ratings), financial market data and analytics (Market Intelligence), commodity and energy data (Commodity Insights), mobility data (Mobility), and the S&P 500/Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500 index is one of the world's most commercially valuable financial products — every index fund tracking it pays licensing fees to S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P Global acquired IHS Markit in 2022 (completed after regulatory approval), adding substantial financial data, commodity, and automotive data capabilities. S&P Global's revenue is approximately 50% recurring subscription-based and 50% transaction-based. | Moody's Corporation operates two segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS — credit ratings) and Moody's Analytics (MA — financial data, risk software, and research). MIS provides credit ratings on debt securities globally — the identical duopoly with S&P that controls approximately 80%+ of global credit ratings. Moody's Analytics provides financial research, risk management software, economic data, and regulatory compliance tools to financial institutions. MA's subscription revenue provides earnings stability between rating issuance cycles. |
| Investor focus | Investors track credit rating issuance volumes (tied to bond market activity), Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights subscription revenue growth, and Indices revenue from ETF AUM licensing. | Investors track MIS credit rating revenue vs bond issuance volumes, Moody's Analytics subscription ARR growth, and combined operating margin improvement. |
SPGI strengths
- →S&P 500 index licensing is a financial toll booth: every dollar invested in S&P 500 index funds generates licensing fees for S&P Dow Jones Indices — the world's most passive investment products grow S&P's revenue automatically
- →Credit rating regulatory moat: debt issuers must obtain ratings from NRSRO-approved agencies — S&P and Moody's duopoly controls most of the $150B+ global credit rating market
- →IHS Markit integration created complementary financial data and commodity data businesses that expand S&P beyond ratings cyclicality
MCO strengths
- →Credit rating duopoly with S&P: Moody's controls approximately 40% of the global credit rating market alongside S&P — regulatory NRSRO designation makes this duopoly virtually impenetrable by new entrants
- →Moody's Analytics subscriptions create revenue stability: MA's financial risk software and data subscriptions provide ~50% of Moody's revenue in a non-cyclical, recurring income stream
- →KYC and compliance demand for Moody's data: financial institutions' regulatory requirements for risk monitoring and reporting drive demand for Moody's risk data products
Risks to watch — SPGI
- →Credit rating revenue is cyclical with debt issuance: when bond market issuance falls (rising rate environments, deal freezes), S&P Ratings revenue falls — this occurred severely in 2022
- →IHS Markit integration synergy realization has been a multi-year process — full cost savings and revenue synergies are still being captured
- →MSCI competes with S&P Dow Jones Indices for international equity and fixed income index licensing — a competitive market for index IP
Risks to watch — MCO
- →Credit rating issuance cyclicality: Moody's Investors Service revenue is highly correlated with global bond issuance volumes — when rate hikes reduce debt issuance, MIS revenue falls sharply
- →AI disruption risk to credit analysis: AI models that analyze credit risk could theoretically displace some manually intensive credit research — though regulatory requirements for NRSRO ratings protect the core rating business
- →Moody's Analytics margin improvement is ongoing — building proprietary risk software at scale requires continued investment before achieving target margins
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