USB vs WFC: US Bancorp vs Wells Fargo Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
US Bancorp is a disciplined super-regional bank with strong payment services and fee income diversification, while Wells Fargo is a large-cap bank recovering from a decade of regulatory issues with the Federal Reserve asset cap as the key unresolved overhang. USB is the higher-quality bank today; WFC has the larger potential upside if the asset cap is removed.
USB vs WFC is quality super-regional banking versus a large-bank recovery trade — US Bancorp offers consistent returns and fee income quality; Wells Fargo offers a potential step-change in earnings power if the asset cap is lifted.
USB holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. USB leads on both 1-year return (+32.24%) and forward P/E quality (10.99x vs 11.02x for WFC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, WFC is growing revenue faster (5.70%), while USB maintains the higher operating margin (37.84%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WFC (+12.83%) than for USB (+8.04%).
- →want a consistently high-quality super-regional bank with payment services differentiation
- →prefer Elavon merchant processing and corporate trust as durable fee income sources
- →value US Bancorp's disciplined capital allocation and return-on-assets track record
- →are less interested in speculative regulatory catalyst investing and prefer steady compounding
- →want exposure to a large-bank recovery trade with the asset cap removal as a potential re-rating catalyst
- →believe CEO Scharf's expense and revenue restructuring is creating significant earnings upside
- →prefer a massive consumer deposit franchise at a discount to JPMorgan and Bank of America
- →are comfortable with regulatory uncertainty in exchange for asymmetric upside if the cap is lifted
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 42.2 | 41.6 |
| AI rank | #946 | #1008 |
| Latest close | $62.34 | $87.67 |
| 1M return | +5.77% | +4.71% |
| 6M return | +12.91% | -8.63% |
| 1Y return | +32.24% | +6.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.25K (+32.5%) started 2025-07-14 | $10.51K (+5.1%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $15.5K (+55.0%) started 2021-07-14 | $23.88K (+138.8%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $30.07K (+200.7%) started 2016-07-14 | $30.92K (+209.2%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $97.22B | $266.73B |
| Trailing P/E | 13.08 | 13.47 |
| Forward P/E | 10.99 | 11.02 |
| Price/Sales | 2.75 | 3.22 |
| EV/Revenue | 5.02 | 3.60 |
| Analyst target | $67.43 | $98.34 |
| Target upside | +8.04% | +12.83% |
| Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 4.60% | 5.70% |
| Earnings growth | 14.80% | 15.10% |
| EPS growth | +14.80% | +15.10% |
| FCF margin | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margin | 37.84% | 29.45% |
| Profit margin | 29.29% | 26.74% |
| ROIC proxy | 12.35% | 12.03% |
| Return on equity | 12.35% | 12.03% |
| Dividend yield | 3.36% | 2.07% |
| Beta | 0.98 | 0.92 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratio | N/A | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +32.47% | +5.08% |
| CAGR | +32.63% | +5.10% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.17 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.21% | 23.83% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.86% | 5.70% | |
| Max wkly drop | 6.82% | 8.74% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +29.41% | +115.27% |
| CAGR | +5.29% | +16.58% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.17 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdown | 52.13% | 37.10% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.04% | 9.12% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.45% | 17.68% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +107.67% | +131.37% |
| CAGR | +7.58% | +8.75% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdown | 52.13% | 64.46% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.44% | 15.87% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.80% | 30.08% |
| Category | USB | WFC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | U.S. Bancorp | Wells Fargo & Company |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Diversified |
| Core business | Diversified super-regional bank serving consumers, businesses, and institutions across 26 states with consumer banking, commercial banking, wealth management, payment services (U.S. Bank Visa, Elavon merchant processing), and corporate trust. | One of the four largest US banks, providing consumer, commercial, and investment banking alongside wealth management. Wells Fargo has been operating under a Federal Reserve asset cap imposed in 2018 following its fake-accounts scandal, limiting balance sheet growth. |
| Investor focus | Payment services revenue as a fee-income diversifier, Union Bank integration benefits, NIM trajectory, credit quality, and CET1 capital ratio normalization. | Fed asset cap removal timeline (each quarter without it is a potential catalyst), NIM improvement, fee revenue growth from investment banking, and expense reduction targets. |
- →Best-in-class return on assets historically among large US banks — known for disciplined capital allocation
- →Payments and fee services provide high-quality non-interest income that reduces NIM sensitivity
- →Strong consumer franchise with deep payments and merchant processing expertise through Elavon
- →Asset cap removal would be a major catalyst — unlocking Wells Fargo's ability to grow loans and deposits significantly
- →Massive consumer deposit franchise and branch network provides a low-cost funding base
- →CEO Charlie Scharf's multi-year expense and revenue improvement plan is generating measurable results
- →Union Bank acquisition integration costs and credit mark drag on near-term earnings
- →USB operates under the large bank regulatory category following Union Bank, which adds compliance costs
- →Mortgage banking and commercial real estate exposure in a high-rate environment
- →Asset cap remains in place and removal timing is uncertain — this is the single largest swing factor for WFC's earnings potential
- →Regulatory scrutiny and consent orders require significant compliance infrastructure spending
- →Investment banking build-out faces stiff competition from JPMorgan, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.