LIVE
AA
Alcoa Corporation · Materials - Aluminum
$59.37
-7.13% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
CENX
Century Aluminum Company · Materials - Aluminum
$51.71
-11.52% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
AA
0
CENX
4
Comparison scoreboard
CENX LEADS 4/5AI Score
AA 50.8
CENX ✓62.0
1Y Return
AA +111.38%
CENX ✓+199.59%
Fwd P/E
AA 8.14
CENX ✓3.78
Target Up.
AA +38.54%
CENX ✓+57.29%
Op. Margin
AA N/A
CENX N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
AA vs CENX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AA (Alcoa) is the largest integrated global aluminum producer with bauxite-to-aluminum vertical integration and international asset diversification, while CENX (Century Aluminum) is a smaller U.S.-focused primary smelter with domestic policy tailwind potential. Both face the challenge of competing with lower-cost global aluminum production, primarily from China.
AA vs CENX contrasts the global integrated aluminum major against a smaller U.S. domestic smelter, both navigating structural competition from Chinese overcapacity while serving different market positions in the aluminum value chain.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
CENX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CENX leads on both 1-year return (+199.59%) and forward P/E (3.78x vs 8.14x for AA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CENX (+57.29%) than for AA (+38.54%).
Normalized 1Y performance
AA
CENX
Recent returns
AA
CENX
Analyst price targets & sentiment
AA · 13 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$52.00
analyst high$152.00
analyst mean$82.25
current price$59.37
+38.5% upside to analyst mean
CENX · 3 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$75.00
analyst high$86.00
analyst mean$81.33
current price$51.71
+57.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
AA may suit investors who:
- →Want the largest, most diversified publicly traded global aluminum producer with integrated bauxite-to-metal operations
- →Value Alcoa's lower-carbon aluminum technology positioning for premium market access as sustainability pricing develops
- →Prefer geographic and value-chain diversification within aluminum sector exposure
CENX may suit investors who:
- →See U.S. domestic aluminum smelting benefiting from trade protection policies and national security considerations
- →Want a pure-play U.S. aluminum smelter with higher beta to aluminum price movements than larger integrated producers
- →Believe domestic manufacturing policy support will provide structural advantages for U.S.-based aluminum production
Performance & AI score
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.8 | 62.0 |
| AI rank | #413 | #128 |
| Latest close | $59.37 | $51.71 |
| 1M return | -7.13% | -11.52% |
| 6M return | +27.16% | +60.99% |
| 1Y return | +111.38% | +199.59% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $21.33K (+113.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $29.96K (+199.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $20.43K (+104.3%) started 2021-06-18 | $45.2K (+352.0%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $28.34K (+183.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $78.71K (+687.1%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $15.67B | $5.12B |
| Trailing P/E | 15.22 | 15.39 |
| Forward P/E | 8.14 | 3.78 |
| Price/Sales | 1.24 | 2.01 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.41 | 2.25 |
| Analyst target | $82.25 | $81.33 |
| Target upside | +38.54% | +57.29% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -5.20% | 2.40% |
| Earnings growth | -22.70% | 1009.80% |
| EPS growth | -22.70% | +1009.80% |
| FCF margin | +8.59% | -3.37% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 8.17% | 13.68% |
| ROIC proxy | 15.43% | 32.26% |
| Return on equity | 15.43% | 32.26% |
| Dividend yield | 0.64% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.57 | 1.92 |
| Debt/equity | 37.02 | 42.50 |
| Current ratio | 1.48 | 2.30 |
| Quick ratio | 0.72 | 1.14 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
AA max drawdown29.14%
CENX max drawdown24.81%
AA max wkly drop18.93%
CENX max wkly drop16.48%
5Y risk snapshot
AA max drawdown75.46%
CENX max drawdown82.10%
AA max wkly drop25.32%
CENX max wkly drop32.86%
10Y risk snapshot
AA max drawdown90.90%
CENX max drawdown87.51%
AA max wkly drop37.50%
CENX max wkly drop35.19%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +111.38% | +199.59% |
| CAGR | +111.49% | +199.82% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.56 | 1.98 | |
| Max drawdown | 29.14% | 24.81% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.47% | 13.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.93% | 16.48% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +94.38% | +352.01% |
| CAGR | +14.22% | +35.22% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdown | 75.46% | 82.10% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.94% | 19.11% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.32% | 32.86% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +167.70% | +687.06% |
| CAGR | +10.36% | +22.93% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdown | 90.90% | 87.51% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.07% | 20.37% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.50% | 35.19% |
Business comparison
| Category | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Alcoa Corporation | Century Aluminum Company |
| Sector | Materials - Aluminum | Materials - Aluminum |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Alcoa is one of the world's largest integrated aluminum producers, operating across the full value chain from bauxite mining and alumina refining to primary aluminum smelting, with operations in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. | Century Aluminum is a U.S.-focused primary aluminum smelter operating facilities in Kentucky, West Virginia, and South Carolina (plus international operations), producing primary aluminum for domestic industrial customers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Alcoa's aluminum production volumes, realized aluminum prices including regional premiums, EBITDA per ton, and the company's progress on operational efficiency and cost position in a competitive global market. | Investors track Century Aluminum's U.S. production volumes, cost position versus LME aluminum prices and energy costs, and the potential for domestic policy tailwinds including Section 232 tariffs and government support for domestic aluminum capacity. |
AA strengths
- →Integrated bauxite-to-aluminum value chain reduces exposure to raw material cost volatility compared to pure smelters
- →Global asset base with operations in stable and resource-rich jurisdictions reduces single-country risk
- →Lower-carbon aluminum technology positions Alcoa for premium pricing as sustainability-linked aluminum demand grows
CENX strengths
- →U.S. domestic aluminum smelting has strategic value as critical infrastructure for defense and industrial supply chains
- →U.S. domestic production benefits from aluminum import tariffs that protect domestic smelters from low-cost foreign competition
- →Potential beneficiary of government support for domestic critical materials production
Risks to watch — AA
- →Aluminum prices are highly cyclical and sensitive to Chinese capacity decisions and global industrial demand
- →Energy costs are the dominant variable cost for smelting, making Alcoa sensitive to electricity prices in its operating regions
- →ESG-linked premium aluminum market is still developing, limiting near-term premium pricing upside
Risks to watch — CENX
- →Electricity costs are the primary cost driver for smelting, and U.S. electricity prices are elevated relative to global competitors
- →Century is a smaller, less diversified producer than Alcoa, making it more exposed to aluminum price swings
- →Global aluminum overcapacity primarily from Chinese producers keeps LME prices structurally challenged, pressuring margins for high-cost Western smelters
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