LIVE
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · Materials - Copper Mining
$68.68
+17.00% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
VALE
Vale S.A. · Materials - Iron Ore & Diversified Mining
$15.42
-3.69% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
FCX
1
VALE
3
Comparison scoreboard
VALE LEADS 3/5AI Score
FCX ✓57.9
VALE 53.7
1Y Return
FCX +66.01%
VALE ✓+80.61%
Fwd P/E
FCX 17.70
VALE ✓7.63
Target Up.
FCX +0.66%
VALE ✓+12.48%
Op. Margin
FCX 31.07%
VALE N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
FCX vs VALE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
FCX offers copper-pure exposure tied to electrification and U.S./Indonesian assets, while VALE is a higher-yielding iron-ore giant with Chinese demand sensitivity and legacy legal overhangs. Both are cyclical commodity plays but track different metals and different macro drivers.
FCX vs VALE is a comparison of two different commodity bets: copper-driven electrification exposure versus iron-ore-driven Chinese steel demand exposure, each carrying distinct geopolitical and legal risks.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
VALE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VALE leads on both 1-year return (+80.61%) and forward P/E (7.63x vs 17.70x for FCX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VALE (+12.48%) than for FCX (+0.66%).
Normalized 1Y performance
FCX
VALE
Recent returns
FCX
VALE
Analyst price targets & sentiment
FCX
Price target range
analyst mean$68.86
current price$68.68
+0.7% upside to analyst mean
VALE · 25 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$14.60
analyst high$21.00
analyst mean$17.34
current price$15.42
+12.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
FCX may suit investors who:
- →Want direct exposure to copper as an electrification and EV-supply-chain metal
- →Are comfortable with Indonesian regulatory and permitting risk
- →Believe global decarbonization will structurally increase copper demand
VALE may suit investors who:
- →Want high dividend yield from a low-cost iron ore producer
- →Are willing to underwrite Brazilian political risk and legacy litigation
- →Have a view that Chinese steel demand will stabilize or recover
Performance & AI score
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 57.9 | 53.7 |
| AI rank | #208 | #294 |
| Latest close | $68.68 | $15.42 |
| 1M return | +17.00% | -3.69% |
| 6M return | +43.62% | +20.56% |
| 1Y return | +66.01% | +80.61% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.68K (+66.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $19.7K (+97.0%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $21.55K (+115.5%) started 2021-06-21 | $22.55K (+125.5%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $71.55K (+615.5%) started 2016-06-20 | $183.23K (+1732.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $98.34B | $65.65B |
| Trailing P/E | 36.20 | 23.36 |
| Forward P/E | 17.70 | 7.63 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 0.31 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.43 | 0.73 |
| Analyst target | $68.86 | $17.34 |
| Target upside | +0.66% | +12.48% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.80% | 2.70% |
| Earnings growth | 153.10% | 22.00% |
| EPS growth | +153.10% | +22.00% |
| FCF margin | +6.47% | +4.93% |
| Operating margin | 31.07% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 10.34% | 7.26% |
| ROIC proxy | 15.63% | 6.84% |
| Return on equity | 15.63% | 6.84% |
| Dividend yield | 0.88% | 7.88% |
| Beta | 1.36 | 0.72 |
| Debt/equity | 33.01 | 57.15 |
| Current ratio | 2.39 | 1.24 |
| Quick ratio | 0.86 | 0.67 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
FCX max drawdown25.14%
VALE max drawdown19.85%
FCX max wkly drop21.34%
VALE max wkly drop12.86%
5Y risk snapshot
FCX max drawdown51.26%
VALE max drawdown49.81%
FCX max wkly drop24.13%
VALE max wkly drop18.22%
10Y risk snapshot
FCX max drawdown72.59%
VALE max drawdown57.60%
FCX max wkly drop34.61%
VALE max wkly drop29.25%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +66.78% | +80.61% |
| CAGR | +66.90% | +80.68% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.21 | 1.90 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.14% | 19.85% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.95% | 6.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.34% | 12.86% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +103.24% | +18.94% |
| CAGR | +15.26% | +3.53% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.26% | 49.81% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.95% | 8.09% | |
| Max wkly drop | 24.13% | 18.22% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +551.07% | +577.95% |
| CAGR | +20.62% | +21.11% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.54 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdown | 72.59% | 57.60% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.06% | 18.01% | |
| Max wkly drop | 34.61% | 29.25% |
Business comparison
| Category | FCX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | Vale S.A. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Materials - Iron Ore & Diversified Mining |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, with major mines in Arizona, Indonesia (Grasberg), and South America. It also produces gold and molybdenum as byproducts. | Vale is a Brazilian multinational and the world's largest iron ore producer, also mining nickel, copper, and other base metals. Its iron ore feeds global steelmaking, with China as the dominant customer. |
| Investor focus | Investors track copper prices, Grasberg production volumes, Indonesian regulatory relations, and the company's leverage to electrification and grid-buildout demand. | Investors track iron ore prices, Chinese steel demand, Brazilian regulatory and tax policy, and the lingering legal liabilities from past tailings dam disasters. |
FCX strengths
- →Premier copper asset base including the world-class Grasberg mine
- →Direct leverage to electrification, EV, and grid-infrastructure copper demand
- →U.S.-based operations provide some geopolitical diversification
VALE strengths
- →Massive low-cost iron ore reserves with scale advantages
- →Growing nickel and copper business tied to EV battery supply chains
- →High dividend yield supported by strong free cash flow generation
Risks to watch — FCX
- →Indonesian government relations and export permit renewals
- →Copper price volatility tied to Chinese demand and global growth
- →High capital intensity of underground Grasberg expansion
Risks to watch — VALE
- →Chinese property and steel demand remains the dominant swing factor
- →Ongoing litigation and remediation costs from the Brumadinho and Mariana dam failures
- →Brazilian political and currency risk
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