LIVE
HII
HII Inc. · Industrials
$285.43
-11.69% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation · Industrials
$521.50
-6.26% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
HII
3
NOC
1
Comparison scoreboard
HII LEADS 3/5AI Score
HII 39.2
NOC ✓50.7
1Y Return
HII ✓+23.93%
NOC +3.48%
Fwd P/E
HII ✓14.01
NOC 18.26
Target Up.
HII ✓+35.90%
NOC +26.64%
Op. Margin
HII N/A
NOC 11.69%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
HII vs NOC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HII and Northrop Grumman are both premier US defense contractors with long-duration sole-source government programs, but in different domains. HII dominates naval shipbuilding; Northrop dominates advanced air, space, and nuclear systems. Both have multi-decade programs providing revenue visibility; both face execution challenges on large fixed-price programs.
HII vs NOC is the sole US nuclear aircraft carrier builder with naval shipbuilding dominance (HII) versus the advanced stealth bomber, space systems, and nuclear modernization leader (Northrop Grumman) — both have irreplaceable defense programs but different margin and growth profiles.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
HII holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HII leads on both 1-year return (+23.93%) and forward P/E (14.01x vs 18.26x for NOC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HII (+35.90%) than for NOC (+26.64%).
Normalized 1Y performance
HII
NOC
Recent returns
HII
NOC
Analyst price targets & sentiment
HII · 11 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$298.00
analyst high$435.00
analyst mean$387.91
current price$285.43
+35.9% upside to analyst mean
NOC · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$477.00
analyst mean$696.95
current price$521.50
+26.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
HII may suit investors who:
- →prefer the only builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers with an irreplaceable national security role in naval shipbuilding
- →value HII's Mission Technologies growth as a higher-margin IT services diversification alongside core shipbuilding revenue
- →want naval defense exposure with multi-decade Virginia-class submarine and Gerald R. Ford carrier programs
- →are comfortable with shipbuilding margin pressure from fixed-price contracts and specialized workforce constraints
NOC may suit investors who:
- →prefer advanced stealth, space, and nuclear deterrence programs with B-21 Raider and GBSD Sentinel as multi-decade anchor programs
- →value Northrop's higher-technology, higher-margin advanced systems profile versus HII's capital-intensive shipbuilding
- →want defense exposure to stealth air power, space intelligence, and nuclear modernization — all long-duration national security priorities
- →are comfortable with B-21 cost overrun near-term earnings pressure and GBSD program execution timeline risks
Performance & AI score
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.2 | 50.7 |
| AI rank | #1193 | #424 |
| Latest close | $285.43 | $521.50 |
| 1M return | -11.69% | -6.26% |
| 6M return | -10.50% | -7.57% |
| 1Y return | +23.93% | +3.48% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.61K (+26.1%) started 2025-06-18 | $10.54K (+5.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.22K (+72.2%) started 2021-06-18 | $15.79K (+57.9%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $26.52K (+165.2%) started 2016-06-20 | $32.39K (+223.9%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $11.25B | $78.17B |
| Trailing P/E | 18.53 | 17.24 |
| Forward P/E | 14.01 | 18.26 |
| Price/Sales | 0.88 | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.13 | 2.21 |
| Analyst target | $387.91 | $696.95 |
| Target upside | +35.90% | +26.64% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 13.40% | 4.40% |
| Earnings growth | 0.00% | 84.90% |
| EPS growth | 0.00% | +84.90% |
| FCF margin | +4.94% | +4.89% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 11.69% |
| Profit margin | 4.71% | 10.80% |
| ROIC proxy | 12.20% | 28.51% |
| Return on equity | 12.20% | 28.51% |
| Dividend yield | 1.84% | 1.71% |
| Beta | 0.23 | -0.12 |
| Debt/equity | 56.95 | 102.68 |
| Current ratio | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Quick ratio | 1.07 | 0.98 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
HII max drawdown36.82%
NOC max drawdown32.10%
HII max wkly drop13.66%
NOC max wkly drop13.55%
5Y risk snapshot
HII max drawdown45.21%
NOC max drawdown32.10%
HII max wkly drop27.38%
NOC max wkly drop13.85%
10Y risk snapshot
HII max drawdown49.70%
NOC max drawdown36.38%
HII max wkly drop27.38%
NOC max wkly drop16.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +23.93% | +5.43% |
| CAGR | +23.95% | +5.44% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.66 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.82% | 32.10% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.59% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.66% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +53.60% | +48.43% |
| CAGR | +8.96% | +8.23% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.29 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdown | 45.21% | 32.10% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.16% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.38% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +115.03% | +178.80% |
| CAGR | +7.96% | +10.80% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdown | 49.70% | 36.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.16% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.38% | 16.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | HII Inc. | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | HII (formerly Huntington Ingalls Industries) is the largest US military shipbuilder, constructing nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (Gerald R. Ford class), Virginia-class nuclear submarines, destroyers, and amphibious warships. Its Newport News Shipbuilding division is the sole builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers. Its Mission Technologies segment provides IT, cybersecurity, and analytics services alongside the core shipbuilding business. | Northrop Grumman is a leading advanced technology defense contractor specializing in autonomous systems, space systems, cyber, and advanced weapons. Key programs include the B-21 Raider stealth bomber (multi-decade strategic bomber), the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD/Sentinel nuclear missile modernization), the James Webb Space Telescope, and missile defense systems. Segments span air, land, space, and cyberspace. |
| Investor focus | Investors track shipbuilding revenue and program margins, nuclear carrier construction progress, Mission Technologies growth, and the order backlog driven by Navy shipbuilding programs. | Investors track B-21 Raider production and unit pricing, GBSD Sentinel ICBM program milestones, Space Systems revenue growth, and Mission Systems cybersecurity and C4ISR contract wins. |
HII strengths
- →Sole builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers — no competitor exists or can easily develop the capability, making Newport News a permanent national security asset
- →Virginia-class submarine program (shared with General Dynamics) provides multi-decade backlog from Navy submarine demand
- →Mission Technologies IT services segment diversifies HII beyond pure shipbuilding into higher-margin defense services
NOC strengths
- →B-21 Raider is the next-generation US Air Force stealth bomber — a sole-source multi-decade program generating production and sustainment revenue through 2060+
- →GBSD Sentinel ICBM modernization is the largest nuclear deterrent program — sole-source DoD contract providing exceptional revenue visibility
- →Space systems capabilities (satellite, intelligence) serve both defense and intelligence community with classified program depth
Risks to watch — HII
- →Shipbuilding margin pressure from fixed-price contracts, labor challenges, and supply chain disruption is an ongoing concern
- →Nuclear carrier construction is a multi-year program — cost overruns on long-duration contracts hurt margins significantly
- →Naval shipbuilding workforce is specialized and constrained — talent pipeline is a long-term competitive challenge
Risks to watch — NOC
- →B-21 Raider development has incurred significant cost overruns absorbed under fixed-price contract terms — a near-term earnings headwind
- →GBSD program delays and technical challenges add execution risk to the nuclear modernization timeline
- →Entirely dependent on US government and allied defense spending — no commercial aerospace diversification
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