HPE vs CSCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HPE and Cisco are both major enterprise IT infrastructure companies with some competitive overlap (networking, enterprise IT infrastructure) but different core businesses — HPE is centered on servers, storage, and GreenLake cloud-as-a-service (with Aruba networking and HPC), while Cisco is the world's dominant enterprise networking company increasingly pivoting to software, security, and observability through the Splunk acquisition. Both face the challenge of hardware-to-software business model transitions in an enterprise IT landscape shifting to public cloud.
HPE vs CSCO is server, storage, and cloud infrastructure with AI server growth catalyst (HPE's GreenLake cloud services, Aruba networking, and Cray/Apollo AI server business benefiting from AI infrastructure demand — with Juniper acquisition pending to strengthen networking) versus dominant enterprise networking with software transition and security expansion (Cisco's entrenched networking market leadership pivoting to software subscriptions, unified with Splunk's SIEM and observability platform) — infrastructure cloud services versus networking-anchored security software consolidation.
HPE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HPE leads on both 1-year return (+164.86%) and forward P/E (11.86x vs 25.03x for CSCO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, HPE is growing revenue faster (40.00%), while CSCO maintains the higher operating margin (24.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HPE (+35.27%) than for CSCO (+6.28%).
- →See HPE's AI server business (Cray supercomputers, Apollo GPU servers) as a meaningful beneficiary of AI training infrastructure spending by national labs and large enterprises building private AI clusters
- →Value HPE GreenLake's as-a-service model as providing cloud economics for on-premises workloads that regulated industries cannot migrate to public cloud
- →Find HPE's lower valuation relative to Cisco appealing given the Juniper acquisition's potential to make HPE a stronger networking competitor, at the cost of short-term balance sheet pressure
- →Value Cisco's entrenched networking market leadership as a genuinely durable competitive moat — global networks built on Cisco hardware create switching costs that protect revenue for decades
- →See the Splunk acquisition as creating a powerful security and observability platform that cross-sells into Cisco's massive installed base of enterprise networking customers
- →Prefer Cisco's improving software revenue mix (approaching 55-60% software/services) as evidence of successful business model transition that should improve earnings quality and revenue visibility over time
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 62.4 | 51.4 |
| AI rank | #126 | #373 |
| Latest close | $47.41 | $119.54 |
| 1M return | +45.34% | +3.61% |
| 6M return | +97.38% | +57.29% |
| 1Y return | +164.86% | +82.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $26.66K (+166.6%) started 2025-06-18 | $18.16K (+81.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $40.61K (+306.1%) started 2021-06-21 | $28.81K (+188.1%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $71.79K (+617.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $75.67K (+656.7%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $62.78B | $471.16B |
| Trailing P/E | 44.31 | 39.85 |
| Forward P/E | 11.86 | 25.03 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 4.70 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.03 | 8.03 |
| Analyst target | $64.13 | $127.05 |
| Target upside | +35.27% | +6.28% |
| Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 40.00% | 12.00% |
| Earnings growth | -30.30% | 37.10% |
| EPS growth | -30.30% | +37.10% |
| FCF margin | +9.89% | +15.29% |
| Operating margin | 8.70% | 24.99% |
| Profit margin | 4.01% | 19.68% |
| ROIC proxy | 6.31% | 25.23% |
| Return on equity | 6.31% | 25.23% |
| Dividend yield | 1.20% | 1.41% |
| Beta | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equity | 84.03 | 67.54 |
| Current ratio | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Quick ratio | 0.57 | 0.70 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +166.65% | +81.56% |
| CAGR | +167.02% | +81.72% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.16 | 1.95 | |
| Max drawdown | 23.81% | 13.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.14% | 12.32% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.52% | 11.44% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +260.51% | +153.51% |
| CAGR | +29.29% | +20.48% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdown | 48.36% | 36.68% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.14% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.76% | 13.61% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +440.92% | +448.91% |
| CAGR | +18.40% | +18.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdown | 56.87% | 41.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.31% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.21% | 16.10% |
| Category | HPE | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | Cisco Systems, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | Hewlett Packard Enterprise provides enterprise IT infrastructure including servers (ProLiant and Apollo/Cray high-performance computing servers), storage (Alletra — all-flash and hybrid storage), networking (Aruba campus and data center networking), and GreenLake (HPE's cloud-as-a-service platform providing on-premises infrastructure with cloud consumption pricing). HPE also provides high-performance computing (HPC) and AI systems through its Cray supercomputer division (acquired 2019), serving national laboratories, research universities, and defense agencies. HPE's GreenLake platform is central to HPE's strategy of providing cloud economics for on-premises workloads. | Cisco Systems is the world's largest enterprise networking company providing routers, switches, wireless networking (Catalyst), data center networking (Nexus), network security (Firepower), collaboration (Webex), and observability (AppDynamics, ThousandEyes). Cisco acquired Splunk in 2024 for $28B, adding security information and event management (SIEM) and observability to its portfolio. Cisco is transitioning from hardware-dominant revenue to more software and subscription-based revenue (Cisco's software and services revenue is now approximately 55-60% of total revenue). Cisco's networking equipment is installed in most of the world's enterprises, government agencies, and service providers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track HPE's GreenLake ARR growth (the cloud-as-a-service business), AI systems orders (Cray and Apollo AI servers for LLM training and inference), Aruba networking revenue and profitability, overall revenue growth and gross margin, and the strategic merits of HPE's planned acquisition of Juniper Networks. | Investors track Cisco's software and subscription revenue growth (the transition from hardware to recurring revenue), Splunk integration and cross-sell synergies (security and observability), overall revenue growth and operating margin, and Webex (enterprise video conferencing competing with Zoom and Microsoft Teams). |
- →AI server demand is a near-term growth tailwind for HPE's high-performance computing business — HPE's Cray EX supercomputer and Apollo GPU server lines are used for AI model training; major national labs (Argonne, Oak Ridge, Lawrence Livermore) use HPE Cray systems; commercial AI companies ordering GPU clusters are also an HPE customer base
- →GreenLake provides cloud economics for enterprises that must keep workloads on-premises — regulated industries (healthcare, banking, government) cannot always migrate workloads to public cloud; GreenLake offers cloud-like consumption pricing with HPE managing the hardware lifecycle; ARR from GreenLake provides more predictable revenue than hardware sales
- →Juniper Networks acquisition (pending) would make HPE the #2 enterprise networking company — the planned acquisition of Juniper Networks (JNI) for $14B would give HPE AI-native networking capabilities (Juniper's Mist AI network management) and campus/branch networking scale to complement Aruba's WiFi strengths
- →Cisco's market leadership in enterprise networking is entrenched — Cisco has approximately 50%+ market share in enterprise routing and switching; the Cisco Certified Network Associate (CCNA) and CCNP professional certifications create a global workforce standardized on Cisco equipment; switching costs are extremely high (replacing installed networking is expensive, disruptive, and risky)
- →Splunk acquisition adds leading SIEM/observability to Cisco's security portfolio — Splunk is the market-leading security information and event management (SIEM) platform and IT observability platform; combining Splunk's security data platform with Cisco's network visibility provides comprehensive enterprise security analytics
- →Software and subscription transition improves revenue quality — Cisco's shift from hardware to software subscriptions and services creates more predictable annual recurring revenue; gross margins on software are 80-85% versus 60-65% on networking hardware
- →HPE's revenue growth has been modest relative to software and cloud peers — hardware-centric businesses grow more slowly; HPE's revenue growth is typically low single digits to mid single digits, far below software competitors
- →Juniper acquisition debt load will constrain HPE's financial flexibility — $14B acquisition at an already-leveraged company creates near-term balance sheet pressure; integration execution risk is significant
- →Aruba networking competes with Cisco's dominant enterprise networking franchise — Cisco maintains approximately 50%+ market share in enterprise routing, switching, and wireless; Aruba has gained share but competing against Cisco in enterprise networking is a persistent challenge
- →Revenue growth has been disappointing — Cisco's revenue declined in FY2024 due to networking equipment inventory normalization after supply chain-driven overbooking in 2021-2022; revenue growth recovery has been gradual
- →Splunk integration is complex — $28B is Cisco's largest acquisition; integrating Splunk's sales force, products, and go-to-market with Cisco's existing security and networking business is a multi-year execution challenge
- →Competition from cloud networking (AWS Transit Gateway, Azure Virtual WAN) and software-defined networking (SD-WAN vendors like VMware VeloCloud, now Broadcom) challenges traditional Cisco hardware revenue — enterprises moving workloads to cloud reduce the need for on-premises Cisco routers and switches
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