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ARM
Arm Holdings plc · Technology
$439.46
+96.93% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
$210.69
-4.50% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ARM
1
NVDA
3
Comparison scoreboard
NVDA LEADS 3/5AI Score
ARM 41.9
NVDA ✓86.0
1Y Return
ARM ✓+200.90%
NVDA +46.19%
Fwd P/E
ARM 142.50
NVDA ✓16.12
Target Up.
ARM -37.42%
NVDA ✓+45.69%
Op. Margin
ARM N/A
NVDA 65.60%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ARM vs NVDA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Arm Holdings and Nvidia are both critical semiconductor companies but with very different business models. Arm is an IP licensing company — it designs CPU architecture and earns royalties from every chip using its technology. Nvidia is a product company — it designs and sells complete GPU and AI accelerator chips. Both are central to AI infrastructure: Arm through mobile and expanding server chips; Nvidia through dominant AI training GPU market share.
ARM vs NVDA is CPU architecture IP licensing with royalties from every smartphone, PC, and increasingly AI server (Arm) versus the dominant AI GPU hardware and CUDA software stack with 80%+ data center share (Nvidia) — Arm's royalty model is durable and growing; Nvidia's AI market dominance is extraordinary but more cyclically concentrated.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
NVDA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ARM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+200.90% vs +46.19%), though NVDA trades at the lower forward P/E (16.12x vs 142.50x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+45.69%) than for ARM (-37.42%).
Normalized 1Y performance
ARM
NVDA
Recent returns
ARM
NVDA
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ARM · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.9/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$125.00
analyst high$500.00
analyst mean$275.00
current price$439.46
-37.4% upside to analyst mean
NVDA · 58 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$180.00
analyst high$500.00
analyst mean$298.93
current price$210.69
+45.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ARM may suit investors who:
- →prefer CPU architecture IP licensing with royalties from every Arm-based device — a more diversified semiconductor revenue model than Nvidia's AI GPU concentration
- →value Arm's server market expansion as AWS Graviton, Microsoft Cobalt, and Ampere Cloud Arm-based servers grow royalty volumes beyond mobile
- →want semiconductor sector exposure with a royalty business model that generates income from chip volumes across all customers regardless of which company's chip wins
- →are comfortable with 50–100x earnings premium valuation and RISC-V open-source architecture as a long-term alternative that could reduce Arm's royalty capture
NVDA may suit investors who:
- →prefer the dominant AI GPU designer with CUDA software ecosystem lock-in delivering 80%+ data center market share in AI training
- →value Nvidia's extraordinary margin profile — data center GPU gross margins approaching 80% reflect the scarcity of leading-edge AI compute
- →want maximum leverage to the AI buildout cycle — Nvidia captures more profit from each AI training run than any other company in the supply chain
- →are comfortable with AI GPU concentration risk, hyperscaler customer concentration, and very high valuation requiring continued exceptional growth
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.9 | 86.0 |
| AI rank | #907 | #2 |
| Latest close | $439.46 | $210.69 |
| 1M return | +96.93% | -4.50% |
| 6M return | +283.54% | +23.25% |
| 1Y return | +200.90% | +46.19% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $30.09K (+200.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $14.48K (+44.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $69.11K (+591.1%) started 2023-09-14 | $114.8K (+1048.0%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $69.11K (+591.1%) started 2023-09-14 | $1.84M (+18277.9%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $469.38B | $4.97T |
| Trailing P/E | 529.47 | 31.42 |
| Forward P/E | 142.50 | 16.12 |
| Price/Sales | 95.40 | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenue | 85.41 | 19.43 |
| Analyst target | $275.00 | $298.93 |
| Target upside | -37.42% | +45.69% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.10% | 85.20% |
| Earnings growth | 47.90% | 214.50% |
| EPS growth | +47.90% | +214.50% |
| FCF margin | +15.25% | +18.28% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 65.60% |
| Profit margin | 18.37% | 62.97% |
| ROIC proxy | 11.95% | 114.29% |
| Return on equity | 11.95% | 114.29% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.49% |
| Beta | 3.79 | 2.20 |
| Debt/equity | 5.93 | 6.55 |
| Current ratio | 6.00 | 3.44 |
| Quick ratio | 5.83 | 2.14 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ARM max drawdown41.47%
NVDA max drawdown20.22%
ARM max wkly drop25.35%
NVDA max wkly drop10.72%
5Y risk snapshot
ARM max drawdown53.97%
NVDA max drawdown66.34%
ARM max wkly drop30.98%
NVDA max wkly drop22.20%
10Y risk snapshot
ARM max drawdown53.97%
NVDA max drawdown66.34%
ARM max wkly drop30.98%
NVDA max wkly drop28.36%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +200.90% | +44.82% |
| CAGR | +201.12% | +44.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.87 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.47% | 20.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.44% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.35% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +591.08% | +1045.71% |
| CAGR | +101.47% | +62.98% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.23 | 1.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.97% | 66.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 19.46% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.98% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +591.08% | +17945.12% |
| CAGR | +101.47% | +68.18% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.23 | 1.20 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.97% | 66.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 19.46% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.98% | 28.36% |
Business comparison
| Category | ARM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Arm Holdings plc | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Arm Holdings licenses CPU (central processing unit) architecture to semiconductor companies — Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, MediaTek, and Nvidia all pay Arm royalties to use Arm's instruction set architecture (ISA) in their chips. Every smartphone, tablet, and increasingly server/cloud chip uses Arm architecture. Arm doesn't manufacture chips and doesn't design complete chips — it provides the architectural blueprint that chip designers build upon. Revenue comes from license fees and per-chip royalties. | Nvidia designs GPUs for AI training and inference, gaming, automotive, and professional visualization. Nvidia's data center GPUs (H100, B200, B300) are the critical infrastructure for training large language models. CUDA software ecosystem creates deep developer lock-in. Nvidia has recently developed its own CPU architecture (Grace CPU) that competes with Arm-based server chips for the AI accelerator server market. |
| Investor focus | Investors track royalty per chip improvement (Arm's most important growth metric), total addressable royalty unit growth (expanding from mobile into cloud servers, automotive, and IoT), and the pace at which Arm architecture gains cloud server market share from x86. | Investors track data center GPU revenue, next-generation AI chip demand (Blackwell generation), CUDA developer ecosystem expansion, and automotive design wins. |
ARM strengths
- →99%+ of smartphones worldwide use Arm architecture — royalty income from every Arm-based device ever shipped creates a recurring revenue model
- →Expanding from mobile into cloud servers: AWS Graviton, Ampere Computing, Microsoft Cobalt, and other Arm-based server chips grow Arm's royalty base beyond mobile
- →Arm v9 architecture commands higher royalty rates — as AI and advanced capability chips upgrade to v9, Arm's royalty per chip increases structurally
NVDA strengths
- →80%+ data center GPU market share with CUDA software lock-in that makes Nvidia chips functionally irreplaceable regardless of competing silicon
- →Blackwell GPU generation delivers 4–5x performance improvement enabling continued AI training capability expansion
- →Expanding from data center into edge AI, automotive (DRIVE platform), and robotics (Isaac) broadens Nvidia's AI revenue base beyond hyperscaler training
Risks to watch — ARM
- →Extremely high valuation (50–100x earnings) reflects growth expectations that require Arm's royalty rate and chip unit volumes to exceed current trends
- →RISC-V open-source architecture is a potential long-term threat — companies can build RISC-V chips without Arm royalties
- →Nvidia ownership interest (Nvidia previously attempted to acquire Arm) creates competitive conflict perception for some Arm licensees
Risks to watch — NVDA
- →Valuation of 30–50x forward earnings is among the highest of any large-cap — requires continued above-market revenue growth at unprecedented scale
- →Export controls limit sales to China, reducing TAM
- →Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium), and Microsoft (Maia) custom chips reduce hyperscaler dependence on Nvidia's GPUs over time
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