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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · Technology
$210.69
-4.50% this month
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TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · Technology
$462.12
+17.98% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NVDA
3
TSM
1
Comparison scoreboard
NVDA LEADS 3/5AI Score
NVDA ✓86.0
TSM 78.3
1Y Return
NVDA +46.19%
TSM ✓+118.84%
Fwd P/E
NVDA ✓16.12
TSM 23.51
Target Up.
NVDA ✓+45.69%
TSM +2.44%
Op. Margin
NVDA 65.60%
TSM N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
NVDA vs TSM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nvidia and TSMC are both critical to the AI chip supply chain but in complementary roles. Nvidia designs the AI GPUs; TSMC manufactures them. Both have extraordinary moats — Nvidia through CUDA software lock-in and GPU dominance, TSMC through manufacturing process technology leadership. Nvidia carries higher valuation multiples as a design company with software moat; TSMC is more capital-intensive but extremely valuable as the indispensable manufacturer of the AI era's most critical chips.
NVDA vs TSM is the AI chip designer with CUDA software moat and 80%+ market share in training AI (Nvidia) versus the world's only manufacturer of leading-edge semiconductor processes including those same Nvidia chips (TSMC) — complementary positions in the AI supply chain with very different risk profiles.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
NVDA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TSM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+118.84% vs +46.19%), though NVDA trades at the lower forward P/E (16.12x vs 23.51x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+45.69%) than for TSM (+2.44%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NVDA
TSM
Recent returns
NVDA
TSM
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NVDA · 58 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$180.00
analyst high$500.00
analyst mean$298.93
current price$210.69
+45.7% upside to analyst mean
TSM · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$354.00
analyst high$700.00
analyst mean$473.40
current price$462.12
+2.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NVDA may suit investors who:
- →prefer the dominant AI chip designer with CUDA software ecosystem lock-in making Nvidia hardware irreplaceable even if competitors match silicon performance
- →value Nvidia's full-stack AI infrastructure position from GPU chips through networking (InfiniBand) and software (CUDA)
- →want maximum leverage to AI infrastructure investment growth — Nvidia captures the most profit per AI training run of any company in the supply chain
- →are comfortable with extreme valuation multiples, hyperscaler concentration risk, and AMD/Google/Amazon chip competition
TSM may suit investors who:
- →prefer the indispensable chip manufacturer enabling Apple, Nvidia, and AMD products — no alternative semiconductor company can match TSMC's leading-edge process
- →value TSMC's pricing power from irreplaceability — leading-edge process customers have no credible foundry alternative
- →want semiconductor infrastructure exposure with somewhat lower valuation multiples than fabless designers like Nvidia or AMD
- →are comfortable with Taiwan geopolitical risk, US fab expansion cost pressures, and customer concentration in Apple and Nvidia
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 86.0 | 78.3 |
| AI rank | #2 | #12 |
| Latest close | $210.69 | $462.12 |
| 1M return | -4.50% | +17.98% |
| 6M return | +23.25% | +67.72% |
| 1Y return | +46.19% | +118.84% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.48K (+44.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $22.13K (+121.3%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $114.8K (+1048.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $47.13K (+371.3%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $1.84M (+18277.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $308.79K (+2987.9%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.97T | $2.4T |
| Trailing P/E | 31.42 | 39.74 |
| Forward P/E | 16.12 | 23.51 |
| Price/Sales | 23.66 | 0.58 |
| EV/Revenue | 19.43 | 3.76 |
| Analyst target | $298.93 | $473.40 |
| Target upside | +45.69% | +2.44% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 85.20% | 35.10% |
| Earnings growth | 214.50% | 58.40% |
| EPS growth | +214.50% | +58.40% |
| FCF margin | +18.28% | +17.52% |
| Operating margin | 65.60% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 62.97% | 46.51% |
| ROIC proxy | 114.29% | 36.21% |
| Return on equity | 114.29% | 36.21% |
| Dividend yield | 0.49% | 5.55% |
| Beta | 2.20 | 1.25 |
| Debt/equity | 6.55 | 18.45 |
| Current ratio | 3.44 | 2.49 |
| Quick ratio | 2.14 | 2.19 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NVDA max drawdown20.22%
TSM max drawdown18.14%
NVDA max wkly drop10.72%
TSM max wkly drop10.46%
5Y risk snapshot
NVDA max drawdown66.34%
TSM max drawdown56.47%
NVDA max wkly drop22.20%
TSM max wkly drop16.17%
10Y risk snapshot
NVDA max drawdown66.34%
TSM max drawdown56.47%
NVDA max wkly drop28.36%
TSM max wkly drop16.17%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +44.82% | +118.84% |
| CAGR | +44.90% | +118.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.10 | 2.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 20.22% | 18.14% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.20% | 6.69% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.72% | 10.46% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +1045.71% | +332.96% |
| CAGR | +62.98% | +34.06% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.12 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.34% | 56.47% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.97% | 13.33% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.20% | 16.17% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +17945.12% | +2187.01% |
| CAGR | +68.18% | +36.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.20 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.34% | 56.47% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.76% | 14.03% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.36% | 16.17% |
Business comparison
| Category | NVDA | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVIDIA Corporation | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | N/A |
| Core business | Nvidia designs graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI accelerator chips used in data centers, gaming, automotive, and professional visualization. Its H100/H200/B100 Blackwell data center GPUs have become the critical infrastructure for training and running AI models. Nvidia's CUDA software platform creates software lock-in — AI developers build on CUDA, making Nvidia GPUs difficult to replace even if competing hardware reaches parity. Software, services, and networking (Mellanox InfiniBand) round out Nvidia's AI infrastructure stack. | TSMC is the world's largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, producing chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and virtually all fabless semiconductor companies. TSMC's leading-edge processes (3nm, 2nm) are used by Apple's M-series chips and Nvidia's AI GPUs. TSMC doesn't design chips — it manufactures them to customers' specifications. Its competitive moat is its manufacturing process technology lead, which has been impossible for Intel or Samsung to close despite multi-decade investment. |
| Investor focus | Investors track data center revenue growth, H100/B200 GPU demand and lead times, CUDA developer ecosystem expansion, and automotive AI design wins from NVIDIA DRIVE platform. | Investors track capacity utilization at leading-edge nodes, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity (critical for AI GPU chip-on-wafer stacking), and the pace at which HPC (high-performance computing) revenue grows as AI chip demand accelerates. |
NVDA strengths
- →CUDA software ecosystem lock-in: 4M+ developers build AI applications on CUDA, creating switching costs that transcend hardware performance comparisons
- →Data center GPU market domination with 80%+ market share — Nvidia's H100 is the de facto standard for AI training and inference
- →Full-stack AI infrastructure from chips (GPU) to networking (InfiniBand) to software (CUDA/TensorRT) creates a moat deeper than silicon alone
TSM strengths
- →World's only manufacturer at 3nm and 2nm with the best manufacturing yield, making TSMC indispensable to Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm
- →CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate) advanced packaging is critical to AI GPU performance — Nvidia's H100 and Blackwell chips depend on TSMC's CoWoS capacity
- →Pricing power from irreplaceability — TSMC is raising prices for leading-edge processes as customers have no alternative foundry at equivalent technology
Risks to watch — NVDA
- →AMD MI300X, Intel Gaudi, and custom AI chips from Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium), and Microsoft (Maia) all challenge Nvidia's GPU dominance
- →Concentration risk: 40%+ of Nvidia data center revenue comes from a handful of hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta)
- →US export controls on advanced AI chips to China removed a significant revenue stream and may tighten further
Risks to watch — TSM
- →Taiwan political risk — China's stated ambition to reunify Taiwan represents existential operational risk for TSMC's manufacturing concentration on the island
- →US, Japan, and Germany fab expansions (Arizona TSMC fab, Kumamoto, Dresden) may dilute TSMC's Taiwan margin advantage with higher-cost off-island capacity
- →Customer concentration: Apple, Nvidia, and AMD represent the majority of TSMC's leading-edge revenue — customer slowdowns directly impact TSMC
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