LIVE
NTRA
Natera, Inc. · Healthcare - Liquid Biopsy & Cell-Free DNA Testing
$231.41
+18.04% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
GRAL
Grail, Inc. · Healthcare - Multi-Cancer Early Detection
$63.74
+4.51% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NTRA
4
GRAL
0
Comparison scoreboard
NTRA LEADS 4/5AI Score
NTRA ✓72.3
GRAL 38.6
1Y Return
NTRA ✓+35.34%
GRAL +31.59%
Fwd P/E
NTRA ✓-1110.52
GRAL -6.56
Target Up.
NTRA ✓+12.38%
GRAL +3.55%
Op. Margin
NTRA N/A
GRAL N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
NTRA vs GRAL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NTRA (Natera) and GRAL (Grail) are both liquid biopsy companies but with different focuses — Natera's diversified portfolio spanning prenatal testing, cancer MRD monitoring, and transplant rejection, versus Grail's focused bet on multi-cancer early detection with Galleri. Natera has more established revenue and diverse applications; Grail is a single-product bet on a potentially transformative but early-stage cancer screening paradigm.
NTRA vs GRAL is diversified cell-free DNA liquid biopsy business (Natera's prenatal, oncology, transplant) versus single-product multi-cancer early detection platform (Grail's Galleri) — both early-stage liquid biopsy companies but with very different clinical and commercial positioning.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
NTRA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NTRA leads on both 1-year return (+35.34%) and forward P/E (-1110.52x vs -6.56x for GRAL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NTRA (+12.38%) than for GRAL (+3.55%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NTRA
GRAL
Recent returns
NTRA
GRAL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NTRA · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$193.00
analyst high$300.00
analyst mean$260.05
current price$231.41
+12.4% upside to analyst mean
GRAL · 8 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$56.00
analyst high$80.00
analyst mean$66.00
current price$63.74
+3.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NTRA may suit investors who:
- →Want diversified liquid biopsy exposure across prenatal cfDNA screening (Panorama), cancer MRD detection (Signatera), and transplant rejection monitoring (Prospera)
- →Value Natera's established prenatal cfDNA business as a revenue base funding growth in the higher-upside oncology Signatera market
- →See cancer MRD monitoring as a growing standard of care oncology tool that Natera's Signatera is well-positioned to benefit from as insurance coverage expands
GRAL may suit investors who:
- →Want a high-risk, high-reward bet on multi-cancer early detection as a potentially transformative cancer screening paradigm that could save millions of lives if adopted at scale
- →Value the NHS PATHFINDER trial and potential U.K. national adoption as major validation events that could accelerate global adoption of Galleri
- →Accept the significant reimbursement risk and clinical evidence uncertainty in exchange for the potentially enormous market opportunity if Galleri becomes a routine annual screening test
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 72.3 | 38.6 |
| AI rank | #33 | #1257 |
| Latest close | $231.41 | $63.74 |
| 1M return | +18.04% | +4.51% |
| 6M return | +2.63% | -25.77% |
| 1Y return | +35.34% | +31.59% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.53K (+35.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $13.16K (+31.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $22.49K (+124.9%) started 2021-06-18 | $46.66K (+366.6%) started 2024-06-12 |
| 10Y ago | $199.49K (+1894.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $46.66K (+366.6%) started 2024-06-12 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $33.14B | $2.74B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | -1110.52 | -6.56 |
| Price/Sales | 13.25 | 17.52 |
| EV/Revenue | 12.27 | 11.08 |
| Analyst target | $260.05 | $66.00 |
| Target upside | +12.38% | +3.55% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 38.80% | 28.10% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | +5.47% | -69.02% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -9.05% | -253.22% |
| ROIC proxy | -15.02% | -16.09% |
| Return on equity | -15.02% | -16.09% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.54 | 3.16 |
| Debt/equity | 13.53 | 2.04 |
| Current ratio | 2.96 | 11.74 |
| Quick ratio | 2.70 | 11.29 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NTRA max drawdown28.20%
GRAL max drawdown62.92%
NTRA max wkly drop14.86%
GRAL max wkly drop55.87%
5Y risk snapshot
NTRA max drawdown77.74%
GRAL max drawdown62.92%
NTRA max wkly drop44.62%
GRAL max wkly drop55.87%
10Y risk snapshot
NTRA max drawdown77.74%
GRAL max drawdown62.92%
NTRA max wkly drop44.62%
GRAL max wkly drop55.87%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +35.34% | +31.59% |
| CAGR | +35.37% | +31.61% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.82 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.20% | 62.92% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.64% | 50.55% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.86% | 55.87% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +124.93% | +366.62% |
| CAGR | +17.60% | +114.77% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdown | 77.74% | 62.92% | |
| Max daily drop | 32.79% | 50.55% | |
| Max wkly drop | 44.62% | 55.87% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1894.91% | +366.62% |
| CAGR | +34.92% | +114.77% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.72 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdown | 77.74% | 62.92% | |
| Max daily drop | 32.79% | 50.55% | |
| Max wkly drop | 44.62% | 55.87% |
Business comparison
| Category | NTRA | GRAL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Natera, Inc. | Grail, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare - Liquid Biopsy & Cell-Free DNA Testing | Healthcare - Multi-Cancer Early Detection |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Natera is a cell-free DNA technology company offering Signatera (MRD detection in cancer patients after treatment), Panorama (prenatal cell-free DNA screening for chromosomal abnormalities), Horizon (carrier screening), and Prospera (kidney transplant rejection detection) — serving oncology, reproductive health, and organ transplant medicine. | Grail develops the Galleri blood test for multi-cancer early detection — a liquid biopsy test that screens for the methylation signature of cancer DNA across 50+ cancer types in a single blood draw, designed for annual screening of asymptomatic individuals as a complement to existing cancer screening methods. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Natera's test volume growth (Signatera oncology MRD tests, Panorama prenatal tests), revenue per test, gross margin improvement as scale increases, and the path to profitability as the Signatera oncology business grows. | Investors track Grail's Galleri test volume growth, reimbursement coverage progress (currently mostly out-of-pocket at approximately $949), clinical evidence development, and the landmark NHS (UK National Health Service) trial results as a major validation event. |
NTRA strengths
- →Diversified liquid biopsy portfolio across multiple clinical applications — oncology MRD (Signatera), prenatal testing (Panorama), and transplant rejection (Prospera) reduces dependence on any single market
- →Signatera's tumor-informed MRD (minimal residual disease) detection is clinically validated across multiple cancer types and is increasingly covered by commercial insurance and Medicare
- →Prenatal cfDNA business provides a high-volume, established cash-generating base that funds investment in the higher-growth oncology segment
GRAL strengths
- →First commercially available multi-cancer early detection test — Galleri's ability to detect signals from 50+ cancer types in a single blood draw is unprecedented in cancer screening
- →NHS PATHFINDER trial with NHS England provides a major real-world validation dataset with credibility beyond the U.S. commercial launch
- →Large market opportunity — the majority of cancer deaths come from cancers for which no standard screening exists; Galleri addresses this unmet need for cancer types caught only at late, less treatable stages
Risks to watch — NTRA
- →Natera is not yet consistently profitable — ongoing losses as the company invests in Signatera commercial expansion and clinical utility demonstration
- →Liquid biopsy oncology MRD space has multiple competitors including Foundation Medicine (Roche), Guardant Health, and others — differentiation and reimbursement are ongoing challenges
- →Insurance coverage expansion for Signatera MRD tests is critical for volume growth — limited coverage restricts which patients can access the test without significant out-of-pocket cost
Risks to watch — GRAL
- →Grail had an extraordinary origin story — founded as an Illumina spinoff, raised billions from SoftBank and others, then was reacquired by Illumina (contested by regulators), then spun off again as GRAL — creating complex history and balance sheet
- →At ~$949 per test, Galleri is unaffordable for routine population screening without insurance coverage — reimbursement is the critical limiting factor for scaling volume
- →Clinical evidence for Galleri's impact on mortality outcomes (catching cancers early enough to meaningfully extend lives) continues to develop — the critical studies are ongoing and results are not yet definitive
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