LIVE
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Staples
$971.87
-2.40% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
WMT
Walmart Inc. · Consumer Staples
$118.88
-8.61% this month
AI Score
60.1vs52.7
COST ↑1Y Return
-7.59%vs+19.66%
WMT ↑Forward P/E
42.29xvs35.19x
WMT ↑Target Upside
+13.35%vs+19.16%
WMT ↑Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
COST
1
WMT
4
Metrics last refreshed: 6/6/2026
Quick take
COST vs WMT: Costco vs Walmart — Which Retail Giant Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Costco is priced as a compounding membership machine with minimal earnings volatility, while Walmart is a diversified retail and emerging advertising platform at a more moderate valuation. COST commands a premium for its model quality; WMT offers more growth levers through advertising and e-commerce at a lower starting multiple.
Use this COST vs WMT comparison to weigh model quality against valuation. Costco's membership economics and loyalty are exceptional but come at a steep price. Walmart's diversification into advertising and digital commerce may offer more upside from current levels for valuation-sensitive investors.
Live analysis · updated 6/6/2026
WMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT leads on both 1-year return (+19.66%) and forward P/E (35.19x vs 42.29x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while WMT maintains the higher operating margin (4.22%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WMT (+19.16%) than for COST (+13.35%).
Comparison scoreboard
WMT LEADS 4/5AI Score
COST ✓60.1
WMT 52.7
1Y Return
COST -7.59%
WMT ✓+19.66%
Fwd P/E
COST 42.29
WMT ✓35.19
Target Up.
COST +13.35%
WMT ✓+19.16%
Op. Margin
COST 3.67%
WMT ✓4.22%
Normalized 1Y performance
COST
WMT
Recent returns
COST
WMT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
COST · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$620.00
analyst high$1,225.00
analyst mean$1,083.97
current price$971.87
+13.3% upside to analyst mean
WMT · 40 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$64.00
analyst mean$137.93
current price$118.88
+19.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
COST may suit investors who:
- →Want a high-quality compounder with predictable membership-driven earnings
- →Value near-100% gross margin on membership fees as a durable profit floor
- →Are comfortable paying a premium multiple for a best-in-class retail model
- →Prefer a retailer with minimal business model disruption risk
WMT may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to the world's largest retailer with a growing advertising business
- →Prefer a more moderate valuation with multiple long-term growth levers
- →Believe Walmart+ and Walmart Connect can meaningfully close the gap with Amazon
- →Value grocery and essential goods resilience across economic cycles
Performance & AI score
| Metric | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 60.1 | 52.7 |
| AI rank | #165 | #319 |
| Latest close | $971.87 | $118.88 |
| 1M return | -2.40% | -8.61% |
| 6M return | +8.48% | +3.52% |
| 1Y return | -7.59% | +19.66% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.61K (-3.9%) started 2025-06-05 | $12.14K (+21.4%) started 2025-06-05 |
| 5Y ago | $28.16K (+181.6%) started 2021-06-07 | $28.32K (+183.2%) started 2021-06-07 |
| 10Y ago | $89.69K (+796.9%) started 2016-06-06 | $70.49K (+604.9%) started 2016-06-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $424.14B | $922.64B |
| Trailing P/E | 49.76 | 40.76 |
| Forward P/E | 42.29 | 35.19 |
| Price/Sales | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.44 | 1.37 |
| Analyst target | $1,083.97 | $137.93 |
| Target upside | +13.35% | +19.16% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 21.50% | 7.30% |
| Earnings growth | 45.50% | 19.40% |
| EPS growth | +45.50% | +19.40% |
| FCF margin | +2.65% | +0.95% |
| Operating margin | 3.67% | 4.22% |
| Profit margin | 3.01% | 3.14% |
| ROIC proxy | 29.15% | 24.13% |
| Return on equity | 29.15% | 24.13% |
| Dividend yield | 0.61% | 0.86% |
| Beta | 0.91 | 0.65 |
| Debt/equity | 60.26 | 74.82 |
| Current ratio | 1.07 | 0.77 |
| Quick ratio | 0.56 | 0.19 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown16.25%
WMT max drawdown15.75%
COST max wkly drop8.96%
WMT max wkly drop11.67%
5Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
WMT max drawdown25.74%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
10Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
WMT max drawdown25.74%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -3.85% | +21.36% |
| CAGR | -3.86% | +21.39% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.36 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdown | 16.25% | 15.75% | |
| Max daily drop | 3.91% | 7.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.96% | 11.67% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +168.16% | +167.56% |
| CAGR | +21.83% | +21.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 25.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 19.49% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +652.28% | +490.89% |
| CAGR | +22.37% | +19.45% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.83 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 25.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 19.49% |
Business comparison
| Category | COST | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation | Walmart Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Membership-based warehouse retailer selling bulk merchandise at low markup. Revenue durability comes from membership fees, which carry near-100% gross margins and extremely high renewal rates. | World's largest retailer by revenue with stores, Sam's Club membership warehouses, Walmart+, and a fast-growing advertising and marketplace business (Walmart Connect). |
| Investor focus | Membership fee growth and renewal rates, same-store sales momentum, international expansion, and whether the premium valuation is justified by the compounding membership model. | U.S. comp store sales, Walmart+ subscriber growth, advertising revenue scaling, grocery share gains vs Amazon, and international unit performance (especially Flipkart). |
COST strengths
- →Membership fee stream acts as a nearly pure-profit recurring revenue layer
- →Extremely high membership renewal rates (~93%) indicate deep customer loyalty
- →Limited SKU model keeps costs low and inventory turns high
WMT strengths
- →Grocery dominance provides traffic and resilience in any economic environment
- →Walmart Connect advertising business growing rapidly from a high-margin base
- →Walmart+ and fulfillment services increasingly position WMT as an ecosystem play
Risks to watch — COST
- →Premium valuation — COST consistently trades at a significant P/E premium to peers
- →Execution risk in international expansion and new warehouse ramp
- →Consumer spending sensitivity in a discretionary slowdown
Risks to watch — WMT
- →Margin pressure from supply chain costs, shrink, and mix shift to lower-margin grocery
- →Walmart+ subscriber growth vs Amazon Prime scale advantages
- →International complexity (Flipkart valuation, China JV) adds earnings uncertainty
Frequently asked questions
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