GILD vs MRK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MRK is currently the stronger revenue growth story powered by the world's best-selling cancer drug (Keytruda), while GILD offers a more stable, dividend-paying profile anchored by its HIV cash cow with a growing oncology portfolio. Both face significant revenue transitions — MRK's Keytruda patent cliff and GILD's long-term HIV franchise management.
GILD vs MRK compares two large-cap pharmaceutical income and growth investments: Gilead's stable HIV cash flow and dividend versus Merck's Keytruda oncology juggernaut approaching a major patent cliff.
MRK holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK leads on both 1-year return (+61.14%) and forward P/E quality (13.45x vs 13.54x for GILD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, MRK is growing revenue faster (4.90%), while GILD maintains the higher operating margin (39.28%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GILD (+20.69%) than for MRK (+3.83%).
- →Want large-cap biotech exposure with a meaningful dividend yield
- →Value the stability of Gilead's HIV franchise as a cash generation engine
- →See upside in Trodelvy and Yescarta expanding the oncology portfolio
- →Want exposure to the world's best-selling cancer drug and its continued indication expansion
- →Are comfortable with Keytruda concentration risk in exchange for near-term revenue growth
- →Believe Merck's pipeline and business development will successfully bridge the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.7 | 49.9 |
| AI rank | #910 | #483 |
| Latest close | $131.15 | $127.77 |
| 1M return | -0.09% | -1.38% |
| 6M return | -8.22% | +12.70% |
| 1Y return | +15.88% | +61.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.45K (+14.5%) started 2025-08-04 | $16K (+60.0%) started 2025-08-04 |
| 5Y ago | $25.79K (+157.9%) started 2021-08-05 | $21.31K (+113.1%) started 2021-08-05 |
| 10Y ago | $32.8K (+228.0%) started 2016-08-05 | $36.87K (+268.7%) started 2016-08-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $161.66B | $314.9B |
| Trailing P/E | 17.74 | 36.68 |
| Forward P/E | 13.54 | 13.45 |
| Price/Sales | 4.87 | 3.10 |
| EV/Revenue | 5.85 | 5.55 |
| Analyst target | $157.15 | $135.19 |
| Target upside | +20.69% | +3.83% |
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 4.40% | 4.90% |
| Earnings growth | 54.80% | -19.30% |
| EPS growth | +54.80% | -19.30% |
| FCF margin | +26.68% | +21.36% |
| Operating margin | 39.28% | 38.60% |
| Profit margin | 30.99% | 13.59% |
| ROIC proxy | 43.36% | 18.94% |
| Return on equity | 43.36% | 18.94% |
| Dividend yield | 2.52% | 2.61% |
| Beta | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| Debt/equity | 94.64 | 106.94 |
| Current ratio | 1.97 | 1.30 |
| Quick ratio | 1.54 | 0.70 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +14.53% | +59.99% |
| CAGR | +14.56% | +60.12% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.47 | 1.68 | |
| Max drawdown | 22.03% | 11.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 3.72% | 4.06% | |
| Max wkly drop | 5.98% | 6.49% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +119.81% | +89.28% |
| CAGR | +17.07% | +13.62% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.58 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdown | 26.59% | 43.44% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.15% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.78% | 13.42% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +124.91% | +173.01% |
| CAGR | +8.45% | +10.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 30.47% | 43.44% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.15% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.29% | 13.71% |
| Category | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Merck & Co., Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biotechnology company with a dominant HIV antiretroviral franchise (Biktarvy), oncology portfolio (Trodelvy, Yescarta CAR-T), and significant antiviral history including hepatitis C treatments, paying a meaningful dividend. | Merck is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, with Keytruda (pembrolizumab) — the world's best-selling cancer immunotherapy — as its dominant franchise, alongside vaccines (Gardasil), HIV antiretrovirals (Islatravir), and other therapeutic areas. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Biktarvy's HIV revenue durability, Trodelvy's expansion in breast cancer, Yescarta's CAR-T performance, and Gilead's business development pipeline to supplement internal R&D. | Investors track Keytruda's sustained revenue growth across its expanding cancer indications, pipeline diversification to reduce Keytruda concentration risk, and the Keytruda patent cliff beginning in 2028. |
- →Biktarvy is the leading HIV treatment with a large, stable recurring patient base providing durable cash generation
- →Meaningful dividend yield provides income alongside growth from the oncology portfolio
- →Oncology diversification through Trodelvy and Yescarta reduces single-franchise dependency
- →Keytruda is the best-selling cancer drug globally, with approvals across dozens of cancer types and ongoing label expansion trials
- →Diverse pipeline including vaccines, cardiometabolic, and infectious disease complements the core Keytruda franchise
- →Strong manufacturing and global commercial infrastructure
- →HIV franchise faces eventual competition from long-acting injectables and generics over a longer horizon
- →Trodelvy and Yescarta are still building their commercial scale versus Gilead's HIV franchise size
- →Acquisition track record has been mixed, with some deals (Immunomedics) under ongoing scrutiny
- →Keytruda's U.S. composition-of-matter patents begin expiring in 2028, creating a significant revenue cliff from biosimilar competition
- →Heavy revenue concentration in Keytruda makes patent cliff risk particularly acute
- →Merck is under significant pipeline and BD pressure to fill the expected Keytruda revenue gap post-2028
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