LIVE
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. · Financials
$42.51
-3.01% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
MA
Mastercard Incorporated · Financials
$489.79
-1.98% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
PYPL
1
MA
4
Comparison scoreboard
MA LEADS 4/5AI Score
PYPL 39.2
MA ✓50.4
1Y Return
PYPL -39.85%
MA ✓-13.99%
Fwd P/E
PYPL ✓7.38
MA 21.50
Target Up.
PYPL +21.25%
MA ✓+31.67%
Op. Margin
PYPL 17.97%
MA ✓60.84%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/22/2026
Quick take
PYPL vs MA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PayPal and Mastercard sit at different layers of the payment stack. Mastercard is the network infrastructure that PayPal's transactions travel through. PayPal is a consumer and merchant application built on top of Mastercard (and Visa) rails. Mastercard's network effect moat is structurally superior to PayPal's application moat — Mastercard benefits from PayPal's volumes while PayPal depends on Mastercard's infrastructure.
PYPL vs MA is the digital wallet application with 430M accounts facing checkout competition from Apple Pay (PayPal) versus the payment network infrastructure that PayPal's own transactions run through — the network infrastructure position is structurally superior to the application layer position in payment ecosystem competition.
Live analysis · updated 6/22/2026
MA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-13.99% vs -39.85%), though PYPL trades at the lower forward P/E (7.38x vs 21.50x). MA leads on both revenue growth (15.80%) and operating margin (60.84%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MA (+31.67%) than for PYPL (+21.25%).
Normalized 1Y performance
PYPL
MA
Recent returns
PYPL
MA
Analyst price targets & sentiment
PYPL · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$49.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$51.54
current price$42.51
+21.2% upside to analyst mean
MA · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$500.00
analyst high$690.00
analyst mean$644.89
current price$489.79
+31.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
PYPL may suit investors who:
- →prefer digital wallet and payments platform with Venmo P2P engagement and PayPal's 430M account base as a monetization opportunity
- →value potential upside if PayPal successfully expands ARPU through Venmo financial services and PayPal credit products
- →want a potentially undervalued fintech with declining investor sentiment creating possible value if competitive headwinds stabilize
- →are comfortable with Apple Pay displacement at mobile checkout, stagnant account growth, and structurally lower margins than Mastercard
MA may suit investors who:
- →prefer payment network infrastructure with two-sided moat benefiting from all digital payment growth regardless of which application or wallet users prefer
- →value Mastercard's value-added services growing faster than core network with higher margins in cybersecurity and data analytics
- →want reliable payment volume growth compounding with cash-to-digital conversion globally as a multi-decade secular trend
- →are comfortable with interchange regulation risk and real-time payment alternatives in some markets
Performance & AI score
| Metric | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.2 | 50.4 |
| AI rank | #1180 | #447 |
| Latest close | $42.51 | $489.79 |
| 1M return | -3.01% | -1.98% |
| 6M return | -29.36% | -13.38% |
| 1Y return | -39.85% | -13.99% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.2K (-38.0%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.09K (-9.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $1.5K (-85.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $13.75K (+37.5%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $11.53K (+15.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $57.83K (+478.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $37.5B | $432.77B |
| Trailing P/E | 7.98 | 28.33 |
| Forward P/E | 7.38 | 21.50 |
| Price/Sales | 2.24 | 18.43 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.18 | 13.07 |
| Analyst target | $51.54 | $644.89 |
| Target upside | +21.25% | +31.67% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.20% | 15.80% |
| Earnings growth | -6.20% | 21.20% |
| EPS growth | -6.20% | +21.20% |
| FCF margin | +12.10% | +47.58% |
| Operating margin | 17.97% | 60.84% |
| Profit margin | 15.00% | 45.88% |
| ROIC proxy | 25.12% | 232.08% |
| Return on equity | 25.12% | 232.08% |
| Dividend yield | 1.32% | 0.71% |
| Beta | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| Debt/equity | 58.28 | 282.06 |
| Current ratio | 1.26 | 0.98 |
| Quick ratio | 0.22 | 0.56 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
PYPL max drawdown50.04%
MA max drawdown21.27%
PYPL max wkly drop24.88%
MA max wkly drop6.45%
5Y risk snapshot
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
MA max drawdown28.25%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
MA max wkly drop13.28%
10Y risk snapshot
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
MA max drawdown41.00%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
MA max wkly drop21.70%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -38.00% | -9.08% |
| CAGR | -38.05% | -9.10% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.14 | -0.55 | |
| Max drawdown | 50.04% | 21.27% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.31% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 24.88% | 6.45% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -84.98% | +34.36% |
| CAGR | -31.60% | +6.09% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.80 | 0.18 | |
| Max drawdown | 87.33% | 28.25% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.59% | 7.69% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.59% | 13.28% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +15.33% | +447.61% |
| CAGR | +1.44% | +18.55% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.12 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdown | 87.33% | 41.00% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.59% | 12.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.59% | 21.70% |
Business comparison
| Category | PYPL | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | PayPal Holdings, Inc. | Mastercard Incorporated |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | PayPal is the world's largest digital payments company with 430M+ active accounts, operating PayPal wallet, Venmo (US P2P payments), Braintree (enterprise processing), and Pay Later (BNPL). PayPal operates as an application layer on top of card networks like Mastercard — most PayPal transactions ultimately flow through Mastercard or Visa rails. PayPal's checkout button is widely adopted across e-commerce, and Venmo's peer-to-peer network reaches 90M+ users in the US. | Mastercard is the world's second-largest payment network, processing transactions between banks and merchants in 210+ countries. Mastercard earns fees from the payment network it operates — and PayPal's transactions often travel through Mastercard rails, making Mastercard a beneficiary of PayPal's payment volume. Mastercard's value-added services (cybersecurity, data analytics, B2B payment infrastructure) add growing higher-margin revenue beyond the core network. |
| Investor focus | Investors track total payment volume, active accounts, revenue per active account, and PayPal's checkout button market share vs Apple Pay and Shop Pay. | Investors track payment volume, cross-border volume (highest margin), and value-added services revenue as the higher-margin growth segment alongside the core network. |
PYPL strengths
- →430M+ active accounts with brand recognition as a trusted checkout option — PayPal's checkout conversion rates are often higher than alternatives for returning customers
- →Venmo's high daily engagement P2P payments create a captive user base for monetization through Venmo debit card, credit, and business profiles
- →Braintree enterprise processing serves large merchants, providing volume scale through companies like Airbnb, Uber, and eBay
MA strengths
- →Two-sided payment network with 3B+ cardholders — Mastercard earns fees on transactions regardless of whether they originate from PayPal, Apple Pay, or a physical card
- →Value-added services growing faster than network fees — cybersecurity, fraud analytics, and B2B payment infrastructure have higher margins
- →Cross-border payment recovery drives premium fee revenue as international commerce and travel normalize
Risks to watch — PYPL
- →Apple Pay and Google Pay are displacing PayPal at mobile checkout — biometric payment UX is simpler than opening PayPal
- →Active account growth stagnated post-pandemic — monetization per account is now the primary focus
- →PayPal pays interchange fees to Mastercard and Visa — it earns a spread on top of network fees, limiting margins vs the networks themselves
Risks to watch — MA
- →Real-time payment alternatives (FedNow, PIX, UPI) create alternatives to card network fees in domestic payments
- →Interchange fee regulation in EU and Australia continues to pressure per-transaction economics
- →Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could eventually bypass card network infrastructure
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