LIVE
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · Financials
$133.88
-13.13% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
CME
CME Group Inc. · Financials
$246.38
-18.52% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ICE
3
CME
2
Comparison scoreboard
ICE LEADS 3/5AI Score
ICE ✓49.9
CME 49.5
1Y Return
ICE -26.03%
CME ✓-8.65%
Fwd P/E
ICE ✓15.95
CME 20.88
Target Up.
ICE ✓+40.66%
CME +13.51%
Op. Margin
ICE 57.31%
CME ✓69.81%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ICE vs CME Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ICE and CME Group are the two dominant US financial exchange companies with complementary but overlapping businesses. CME dominates interest rate and equity index derivatives. ICE owns NYSE equities, energy commodity exchanges, fixed income data, and mortgage technology. CME's revenue is more transaction-driven and volatility-correlated; ICE has more subscription-based data and mortgage technology revenue providing stability. Together they represent the financial market infrastructure duopoly.
ICE vs CME is the NYSE-owning exchange conglomerate with fixed income data subscriptions and mortgage technology diversifying beyond transaction-based exchange revenue (ICE) versus the world's largest financial derivatives exchange dominating interest rate futures in a revenue model that spikes with market volatility and Fed activity (CME Group) — diversified exchange and data platform vs pure-play derivatives exchange volatility leverage.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
ICE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CME has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-8.65% vs -26.03%), though ICE trades at the lower forward P/E (15.95x vs 20.88x). On fundamentals, ICE is growing revenue faster (20.40%), while CME maintains the higher operating margin (69.81%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ICE (+40.66%) than for CME (+13.51%).
Normalized 1Y performance
ICE
CME
Recent returns
ICE
CME
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ICE
Price target range
analyst mean$197.67
current price$133.88
+40.7% upside to analyst mean
CME · 17 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$211.00
analyst mean$305.93
current price$246.38
+13.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ICE may suit investors who:
- →prefer the more diversified exchange company with NYSE prestige, fixed income data subscriptions, and mortgage technology providing revenue stability beyond transaction volumes
- →value ICE Data Services subscription ARR as a non-cyclical financial infrastructure revenue stream growing independently of exchange trading activity
- →want exchange sector exposure with mortgage technology platform (Encompass) positioning ICE to benefit from eventual mortgage market recovery
- →are comfortable with mortgage technology revenue cyclicality from origination volumes, NYSE equities market share competition, and energy exchange competition with CME
CME may suit investors who:
- →prefer the pure-play derivatives exchange dominated by interest rate futures — creating maximum exposure to Fed volatility-driven trading volume spikes
- →value CME's S&P 500 E-mini and Treasury futures dominance as the most liquid derivatives markets globally — switching costs for institutional hedgers are extremely high
- →want financial exchange exposure with maximum leverage to interest rate volatility cycles — CME's revenue spikes when Fed policy uncertainty drives hedging demand
- →are comfortable with transaction volume cyclicality during low-volatility environments, ICE energy futures competition, and derivatives clearing systemic risk management requirements
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 49.9 | 49.5 |
| AI rank | #482 | #499 |
| Latest close | $133.88 | $246.38 |
| 1M return | -13.13% | -18.52% |
| 6M return | -16.77% | -9.99% |
| 1Y return | -26.03% | -8.65% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.45K (-25.5%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.05K (-9.5%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $13.02K (+30.2%) started 2021-06-21 | $16.15K (+61.5%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $33.42K (+234.2%) started 2016-06-20 | $55.38K (+453.8%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $79.47B | $97.39B |
| Trailing P/E | 20.46 | 23.00 |
| Forward P/E | 15.95 | 20.88 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 15.75 |
| EV/Revenue | 9.55 | 14.66 |
| Analyst target | $197.67 | $305.93 |
| Target upside | +40.66% | +13.51% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.40% | 14.40% |
| Earnings growth | 79.70% | 21.30% |
| EPS growth | +79.70% | +21.30% |
| FCF margin | +35.87% | +44.94% |
| Operating margin | 57.31% | 69.81% |
| Profit margin | 37.67% | 63.32% |
| ROIC proxy | 13.85% | 15.92% |
| Return on equity | 13.85% | 15.92% |
| Dividend yield | 1.48% | 1.93% |
| Beta | 0.92 | 0.24 |
| Debt/equity | 70.99 | 14.06 |
| Current ratio | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratio | 0.03 | 0.02 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ICE max drawdown28.96%
CME max drawdown24.53%
ICE max wkly drop10.97%
CME max wkly drop11.49%
5Y risk snapshot
ICE max drawdown34.32%
CME max drawdown31.74%
ICE max wkly drop15.73%
CME max wkly drop11.49%
10Y risk snapshot
ICE max drawdown34.32%
CME max drawdown37.36%
ICE max wkly drop22.78%
CME max wkly drop27.51%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -25.52% | -9.45% |
| CAGR | -25.55% | -9.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.41 | -0.57 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.96% | 24.53% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.78% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.97% | 11.49% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +23.77% | +34.83% |
| CAGR | +4.36% | +6.17% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.10 | 0.18 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.32% | 31.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.78% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.73% | 11.49% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +196.88% | +269.22% |
| CAGR | +11.50% | +13.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.32% | 37.36% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.29% | 18.39% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.78% | 27.51% |
Business comparison
| Category | ICE | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | CME Group Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | N/A | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Intercontinental Exchange is a global operator of financial exchanges, clearinghouses, and mortgage technology. ICE owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), energy commodity exchanges (ICE Futures), credit default swap clearing (ICE Clear Credit), fixed income and data services (ICE Data Services), and the mortgage technology platform (ICE Mortgage Technology/Encompass). ICE's revenue mix: exchanges and clearing (~50%), fixed income and data services (~30%), and mortgage technology (~20%). | CME Group is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, operating CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX exchanges that together dominate futures trading in interest rates (Treasury futures), equity index futures (S&P 500 E-mini), commodities (crude oil, corn, gold), and foreign exchange. CME's interest rate futures are the world's most traded derivatives — essential tools for banks, hedge funds, and corporations hedging interest rate exposure. CME also operates a real-time market data licensing business. |
| Investor focus | Investors track derivatives trading volumes and open interest, NYSE equities trading market share, ICE Data Services subscription ARR, and mortgage technology origination volumes. | Investors track average daily volume (ADV) by asset class, revenue per contract (RPC), and data and information services subscription revenue. |
ICE strengths
- →NYSE brand: the world's most prestigious stock exchange creates institutional credibility and international capital markets leadership
- →ICE Data Services fixed income data: ICE provides reference data for hundreds of trillions in fixed income securities — an indispensable service for financial institutions pricing bonds and derivatives
- →Mortgage technology platform (Encompass): ICE Mortgage Technology processes a large share of US mortgage applications through Encompass software — a market-critical workflow platform
CME strengths
- →Interest rate derivatives dominance: CME's Treasury futures are the world's benchmark interest rate hedging tools — no competitor comes close to CME's depth and liquidity in rate futures
- →Volatility-driven volume: when interest rates move significantly (as in 2022-2023 Fed hiking cycle), CME's interest rate futures volume explodes — high volatility = high CME revenue
- →S&P 500 E-mini futures exclusivity: CME licenses the S&P 500 index from S&P Dow Jones for futures trading — the S&P 500 E-mini is the most actively traded equity index futures contract globally
Risks to watch — ICE
- →Mortgage origination volumes are cyclically sensitive: as mortgage originations fall during high interest rate environments, ICE Mortgage Technology revenue declines proportionally
- →NYSE equities market share is competed aggressively by electronic exchanges (CBOE, NASDAQ, IEX) on market structure grounds
- →ICE's energy commodity exchanges compete with CME Group for crude oil, natural gas, and energy futures market share
Risks to watch — CME
- →Volume depends on market volatility: when interest rates stabilize and equities have low volatility, CME's derivatives volume falls — a period of low volatility reduces transaction revenue
- →ICE and other exchanges compete in energy futures and some fixed income derivatives — CME must defend market share in commodity and energy segments
- →Clearing risk: as the world's largest derivatives clearing house, CME's Clearing House manages systemic risk — a clearing default event would be catastrophic (though historically CME Clearing has been impeccably managed)
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