LIVE
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation · Consumer Discretionary
$173.94
-6.22% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
HMC
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. · Consumer Discretionary
$26.26
+3.71% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TM
3
HMC
0
Comparison scoreboard
TM LEADS 3/5AI Score
TM ✓41.2
HMC 40.0
1Y Return
TM ✓-0.94%
HMC -11.43%
Fwd P/E
TM N/A
HMC N/A
Target Up.
TM ✓+47.48%
HMC +7.68%
Op. Margin
TM N/A
HMC N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
TM vs HMC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Toyota and Honda are both world-class Japanese automakers with strong North American brands, but with different electrification strategies. Toyota is doubling down on hybrid and fuel cell while accelerating BEV development. Honda is partnering with GM for Ultium platform EVs and Sony for premium EV development. Both face Chinese EV competition. Toyota's scale is significantly larger; Honda's North American brand trust and motorcycle business add diversification.
TM vs HMC is the world's largest automaker with hybrid leadership, multi-pathway electrification strategy, and Toyota Production System manufacturing efficiency scale (Toyota) versus the reliable-brand-focused smaller Japanese automaker with motorcycle global dominance, Honda-Sony premium EV JV, and North American brand loyalty (Honda) — global scale hybrid leader vs reliable brand motorcycle plus auto diversification.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-0.94% vs -11.43% for HMC). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TM (+47.48%) than for HMC (+7.68%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TM
HMC
Recent returns
TM
HMC
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TM · 4 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$230.00
analyst high$290.00
analyst mean$256.52
current price$173.94
+47.5% upside to analyst mean
HMC · 3 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$23.00
analyst high$32.00
analyst mean$28.28
current price$26.26
+7.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TM may suit investors who:
- →prefer the world's largest automaker with hybrid vehicle dominance — the most commercially successful alternative to pure BEVs in transitioning markets
- →value Toyota's multi-pathway electrification strategy as a hedge against uncertainty in EV adoption speed vs full BEV commitment
- →want global auto exposure with manufacturing excellence from Toyota Production System creating structural cost advantages over competitors
- →are comfortable with BEV transition pace risk if pure EVs accelerate faster than Toyota's roadmap, China market share loss to domestic brands, and yen/USD exchange rate sensitivity
HMC may suit investors who:
- →prefer the reliable-brand Japanese automaker with North American market trust, motorcycle business diversification, and Honda-Sony premium EV JV as next-generation differentiation
- →value Honda's motorcycle market dominance across Southeast Asia and India providing earnings stability and growth from non-auto business segments
- →want Japanese auto exposure to the Honda-Sony partnership for potential next-generation premium connected EV vehicles
- →are comfortable with Honda's smaller EV lineup relative to Toyota and Chinese competitors, China market share erosion, and yen exchange rate sensitivity to Japanese manufacturing costs
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.2 | 40.0 |
| AI rank | #973 | #1095 |
| Latest close | $173.94 | $26.26 |
| 1M return | -6.22% | +3.71% |
| 6M return | -18.81% | -13.48% |
| 1Y return | -0.94% | -11.43% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.91K (-0.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $8.86K (-11.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $12.32K (+23.2%) started 2021-06-18 | $11.26K (+12.6%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $28.03K (+180.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $17.75K (+77.5%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $205.96B | $34.07B |
| Trailing P/E | 9.42 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Price/Sales | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.69 | 0.40 |
| Analyst target | $256.52 | $28.28 |
| Target upside | +47.48% | +7.68% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 1.90% | 8.60% |
| Earnings growth | 23.20% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +23.20% | N/A |
| FCF margin | -2.38% | -5.81% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 7.59% | -1.95% |
| ROIC proxy | 10.23% | -2.85% |
| Return on equity | 10.23% | -2.85% |
| Dividend yield | 54.99% | 4.96% |
| Beta | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Debt/equity | 107.06 | 113.57 |
| Current ratio | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Quick ratio | 1.02 | 0.95 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TM max drawdown30.71%
HMC max drawdown32.60%
TM max wkly drop11.45%
HMC max wkly drop9.91%
5Y risk snapshot
TM max drawdown36.80%
HMC max drawdown35.20%
TM max wkly drop13.96%
HMC max wkly drop12.70%
10Y risk snapshot
TM max drawdown36.80%
HMC max drawdown43.12%
TM max wkly drop13.96%
HMC max wkly drop16.80%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -0.94% | -11.43% |
| CAGR | -0.94% | -11.44% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.04 | -0.39 | |
| Max drawdown | 30.71% | 32.60% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.24% | 5.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.45% | 9.91% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +9.75% | -3.87% |
| CAGR | +1.88% | -0.79% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.04 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.80% | 35.20% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.48% | 8.02% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.96% | 12.70% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +111.41% | +30.84% |
| CAGR | +7.78% | +2.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.80% | 43.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.62% | 8.96% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.96% | 16.80% |
Business comparison
| Category | TM | HMC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Toyota Motor Corporation | Honda Motor Co., Ltd. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Toyota is the world's largest automaker by vehicle sales, known for the Toyota Production System (lean manufacturing) and hybrid vehicle leadership through the Prius and a growing hybrid lineup. Toyota's 'multi-pathway' electrification strategy supports hybrids, PHEVs, hydrogen fuel cells, and battery EVs — rather than committing exclusively to battery EVs. Toyota's BEV sales have lagged competitors, but Toyota's hybrid dominance and HV-adjacent PHEV lineup have proven commercially successful as consumers show preference for hybrids over pure EVs. Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (Mirai) represents an alternative decarbonization bet. | Honda is Japan's second-largest automaker and the world's largest motorcycle manufacturer. Honda's auto lineup focuses on reliability and value — Civic, CR-V, Accord, and Pilot are among the most trusted models in North America. Honda's EV transition includes the Prologue (built with GM's Ultium platform) and Honda's own e:N series for China. Honda's motorcycle business is globally dominant — contributing significant profit and revenue independent of auto cycles. Honda and Sony formed a joint venture (Sony Honda Mobility) to develop premium EVs combining Honda manufacturing with Sony's entertainment and sensor technology. |
| Investor focus | Investors track global vehicle sales and production, hybrid vs BEV mix, Japan yen exchange rate (Toyota exports create yen sensitivity), and Toyota's BEV product roadmap acceleration. | Investors track North America auto sales and margins, motorcycle business performance, EV transition execution, and Honda-Sony JV development. |
TM strengths
- →Hybrid vehicle dominance: Toyota's decades of hybrid development create unmatched hybrid powertrain efficiency and production cost — hybrid vehicles now outsell pure EVs in many markets
- →Toyota Production System (TPS) manufacturing efficiency: Toyota's lean manufacturing is the global standard, creating structural cost advantages vs Western and Chinese automakers
- →Geographic diversification: Toyota sells in every major auto market — USA, China, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Japan — reducing dependence on any single market
HMC strengths
- →North America brand trust: Honda consistently ranks among the most reliable and customer-trusted brands in US and Canadian consumer surveys — a loyalty moat that sustains residual values and repeat purchases
- →Motorcycle global dominance: Honda's motorcycle business provides profitable, diversified revenue — particularly in Southeast Asia and India where motorcycle transportation dominates
- →Honda-Sony Mobility JV creates potential premium EV platform differentiator — combining Honda's manufacturing with Sony's technology creates an unusual partnership for next-generation vehicles
Risks to watch — TM
- →BEV transition pace uncertainty: if battery EV adoption accelerates faster than Toyota's conservative roadmap, Toyota could fall behind in pure EVs while BYD and Tesla capture EV market share
- →China market share loss: Chinese consumers increasingly prefer domestic brands (BYD, Nio) over Toyota — China used to be Toyota's largest market
- →Yen currency fluctuations significantly affect Toyota's dollar-reported earnings — yen strength compresses profits on Japan-manufactured exports
Risks to watch — HMC
- →EV transition pace risk: Honda's EV product lineup is smaller and behind Toyota and certainly behind Chinese EV makers — risk of falling behind in the transition to pure EVs
- →China market headwinds: Honda's China sales have declined as local brands take market share, especially in affordable EVs where Chinese manufacturers have cost advantages
- →Yen exposure similar to Toyota — Honda's Japan-based manufacturing creates FX sensitivity to yen exchange rates vs USD and other major currencies
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