LIVE
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$137.81
-15.22% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
SHEL
Shell plc · Energy
$78.81
-10.10% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
XOM
2
SHEL
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
XOM ✓42.2
SHEL 41.3
1Y Return
XOM ✓+20.89%
SHEL +13.66%
Fwd P/E
XOM 13.82
SHEL ✓8.38
Target Up.
XOM +15.58%
SHEL ✓+25.66%
Op. Margin
XOM 6.35%
SHEL N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
XOM vs SHEL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ExxonMobil and Shell are both international oil majors but with different strategic emphases. ExxonMobil is explicitly hydrocarbon-focused — investing in Permian Basin and Guyana for long-term upstream production. Shell is more transition-oriented with major LNG and partial renewables strategies. ExxonMobil's Permian scale and integrated capital discipline appeal to energy income investors; Shell's LNG and transition balance appeal to investors seeking energy with lower carbon exposure.
XOM vs SHEL is the US oil major doubling down on Permian Basin and Guyana upstream production with explicit hydrocarbon capital discipline and Pioneer integration creating the largest Permian producer (ExxonMobil) versus the European oil major with LNG market leadership and partial energy transition strategy balancing hydrocarbon production with gas infrastructure and renewables exposure (Shell) — pure hydrocarbon capital discipline vs LNG-heavy transition-oriented integrated energy.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
XOM and SHEL are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. XOM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+20.89% vs +13.66%), though SHEL trades at the lower forward P/E (8.38x vs 13.82x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHEL (+25.66%) than for XOM (+15.58%).
Normalized 1Y performance
XOM
SHEL
Recent returns
XOM
SHEL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
XOM · 26 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$95.00
analyst mean$169.91
current price$137.81
+15.6% upside to analyst mean
SHEL · 14 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$59.00
analyst high$122.40
analyst mean$99.04
current price$78.81
+25.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
XOM may suit investors who:
- →prefer the largest US oil major with explicit hydrocarbon-first strategy, Permian Basin production scale from Pioneer acquisition, and proven capital discipline above $35/bbl breakeven
- →value ExxonMobil's integrated model providing refining margin hedge vs pure upstream producers during low oil price environments
- →want US energy sector exposure with the most aggressive capital return commitments and dividend growth from an energy major with structural cost advantages
- →are comfortable with crude oil price sensitivity, Guyana offshore development execution risk, and long-dated energy transition disruption risk
SHEL may suit investors who:
- →prefer the LNG market leader with structural advantages in global gas trading, liquefaction, and Asian import markets — the largest private-sector LNG company
- →value Shell's partial energy transition positioning with lower carbon intensity relative to pure upstream oil majors — more acceptable to European ESG-oriented institutional investors
- →want international energy exposure with European regulatory political license to operate and LNG as a cleaner-than-coal bridge fuel beneficiary
- →are comfortable with European political energy transition strategy volatility, LNG oversupply risk from Qatar/US/Australia expansion, and renewables investments delivering subpar returns
Performance & AI score
| Metric | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 42.2 | 41.3 |
| AI rank | #870 | #960 |
| Latest close | $137.81 | $78.81 |
| 1M return | -15.22% | -10.10% |
| 6M return | +17.38% | +12.18% |
| 1Y return | +20.89% | +13.66% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.18K (+21.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.81K (+18.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $30.22K (+202.2%) started 2021-06-21 | $29.9K (+199.0%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $37.03K (+270.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $44.22K (+342.2%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $609.35B | $218.46B |
| Trailing P/E | 24.75 | 12.28 |
| Forward P/E | 13.82 | 8.38 |
| Price/Sales | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.01 | 1.07 |
| Analyst target | $169.91 | $99.04 |
| Target upside | +15.58% | +25.66% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.60% | 0.70% |
| Earnings growth | -43.40% | 26.60% |
| EPS growth | -43.40% | +26.60% |
| FCF margin | +3.57% | +5.85% |
| Operating margin | 6.35% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 7.76% | 7.01% |
| ROIC proxy | 9.87% | 10.70% |
| Return on equity | 9.87% | 10.70% |
| Dividend yield | 2.80% | 3.80% |
| Beta | 0.15 | -0.25 |
| Debt/equity | 18.26 | 43.32 |
| Current ratio | 1.04 | 1.27 |
| Quick ratio | 0.74 | 0.82 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
XOM max drawdown19.63%
SHEL max drawdown15.53%
XOM max wkly drop9.01%
SHEL max wkly drop8.20%
5Y risk snapshot
XOM max drawdown20.51%
SHEL max drawdown25.04%
XOM max wkly drop15.35%
SHEL max wkly drop18.21%
10Y risk snapshot
XOM max drawdown61.34%
SHEL max drawdown67.24%
XOM max wkly drop25.80%
SHEL max wkly drop37.32%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +21.75% | +13.66% |
| CAGR | +21.79% | +13.67% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdown | 19.63% | 15.53% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.23% | 5.28% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.01% | 8.20% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +156.44% | +143.34% |
| CAGR | +20.76% | +19.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.67 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdown | 20.51% | 25.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.89% | 8.08% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.35% | 18.21% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +126.22% | +141.14% |
| CAGR | +8.51% | +9.21% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdown | 61.34% | 67.24% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.22% | 17.17% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.80% | 37.32% |
Business comparison
| Category | XOM | SHEL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Shell plc |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | N/A |
| Core business | ExxonMobil is the largest US integrated oil and gas company with upstream E&P (Permian Basin, Guyana), downstream refining and chemicals, and a growing low-carbon energy solutions segment. ExxonMobil's Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition in 2024 dramatically expanded its Permian Basin position — making XOM the largest Permian producer. ExxonMobil's integrated model means it produces oil and gas, refines it into fuels and petrochemicals, and sells products globally. XOM is explicit about remaining a hydrocarbon-focused company rather than pivoting aggressively to renewables. | Shell is one of the largest European integrated energy companies with operations across upstream oil and gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), downstream refining and marketing, and an integrated gas/renewables transition strategy. Shell has been divesting higher-carbon assets and investing in LNG, biofuels, EV charging infrastructure, and hydrogen as part of its energy transition strategy. Shell's LNG business is among the world's largest — Shell's global LNG trading and liquefaction gives it structural advantages in gas markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Permian Basin oil production, project returns vs capital budget, Pioneer acquisition integration, and free cash flow generation across the commodity cycle. | Investors track LNG volume and margins, oil and gas production, renewables investment returns, and dividend/buyback returns to shareholders. |
XOM strengths
- →Largest Permian Basin producer after Pioneer acquisition: XOM's Permian production scale creates cost advantages and long-term resource life in the most productive US oil basin
- →Capital discipline: ExxonMobil's 2020 restructuring dramatically improved project economics — only investing in the highest-return projects above $35/bbl breakeven
- →Integrated model: when crude oil is cheap, refining margins expand — integration provides natural earnings hedge across commodity cycles
SHEL strengths
- →LNG market leadership: Shell's global LNG portfolio — from Australian LNG to US liquefaction to Asian importers — creates unique gas market trading and physical supply advantages
- →European energy transition strategy provides political license to operate in Europe — Shell's transition narrative is more acceptable to European regulators and institutional investors than ExxonMobil's explicit hydrocarbon focus
- →Chemical and downstream integration provides refining margin contributions independent of upstream oil price
Risks to watch — XOM
- →Oil price dependency: XOM's earnings are highly sensitive to crude oil price — every $10/bbl change impacts ExxonMobil's earnings by $2–3B annually
- →Guyana offshore development remains critical for long-term growth — executing multiple FPSOs on schedule and budget is a multi-year capital project risk
- →Energy transition risk is long-dated but real: XOM's capital allocation assumes hydrocarbons remain primary energy for decades — wrong bet timing would be severe
Risks to watch — SHEL
- →Shell's energy transition investments have delivered poor returns — wind, solar, and power businesses acquired during the transition push have been partially divested as returns underperformed
- →European political pressure on oil companies creates strategic volatility — Shell's strategic direction has shifted multiple times between hydrocarbon focus and renewable pivot
- →LNG market competition is intensifying as Qatar, US LNG, and Australian projects all expand supply toward a potential LNG oversupply environment
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