LIVE
ESTC
Elastic N.V. · Search / Observability / Security
$58.97
+9.77% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc. · Networking / Cybersecurity
$119.54
+3.61% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ESTC
2
CSCO
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
ESTC 24.6
CSCO ✓51.4
1Y Return
ESTC -29.32%
CSCO ✓+82.98%
Fwd P/E
ESTC ✓15.32
CSCO 25.03
Target Up.
ESTC ✓+26.37%
CSCO +6.28%
Op. Margin
ESTC N/A
CSCO 24.99%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/22/2026
Quick take
ESTC vs CSCO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ESTC (Elastic) and Splunk (now part of CSCO) both provide enterprise log management, observability, and security analytics — but via different architectures. Elastic's search-engine-native approach and open-source base give it an AI/vector search advantage and price competitiveness vs Splunk's proprietary platform now integrated into Cisco. Cisco's acquisition of Splunk created a potential displacement opportunity for Elastic as enterprise customers reassess Splunk pricing under new Cisco ownership.
ESTC vs CSCO — Elastic (the search-native observability and SIEM platform with Elasticsearch vector search for AI/RAG, benefiting from Splunk-Cisco acquisition pricing pressure) versus Cisco (the networking infrastructure giant that acquired Splunk in 2024 for $28B to combine network telemetry with SIEM security analytics at enterprise scale).
Live analysis · updated 6/22/2026
ESTC and CSCO are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. CSCO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+82.98% vs -29.32%), though ESTC trades at the lower forward P/E (15.32x vs 25.03x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ESTC (+26.37%) than for CSCO (+6.28%).
Normalized 1Y performance
ESTC
CSCO
Recent returns
ESTC
CSCO
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ESTC · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.9/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$53.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$74.52
current price$58.97
+26.4% upside to analyst mean
CSCO · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$56.00
analyst mean$127.05
current price$119.54
+6.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ESTC may suit investors who:
- →believe Elasticsearch's vector search is an AI infrastructure moat — enterprises building LLM-powered search applications need vector databases, and Elasticsearch is the dominant choice
- →see the Splunk-Cisco acquisition as a displacement opportunity — Elastic can offer lower-cost observability and SIEM to Splunk customers reconsidering contracts under Cisco pricing
- →value Elastic's open-source distribution advantage — 800M+ Elasticsearch downloads create organic enterprise pipeline that paid search products cannot replicate
- →are comfortable with hyperscaler OpenSearch competition, SSPL licensing controversies, and GAAP profitability timeline
CSCO may suit investors who:
- →want the Splunk enterprise SIEM and observability opportunity with the financial safety net of Cisco's $15B+ annual FCF and 3%+ dividend yield
- →believe Cisco's networking installed base creates unmatched cross-sell opportunity for Splunk security products to existing enterprise networking customers
- →prefer a diversified networking+security+observability portfolio at lower premium valuation vs pure-play observability stocks like Elastic or Datadog
- →are comfortable with Splunk integration execution risk, networking hardware maturation, and Elastic/Datadog displacing Splunk customers reconsidering under Cisco ownership
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 24.6 | 51.4 |
| AI rank | #3050 | #373 |
| Latest close | $58.97 | $119.54 |
| 1M return | +9.77% | +3.61% |
| 6M return | -20.87% | +57.29% |
| 1Y return | -29.32% | +82.98% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.07K (-29.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $18.16K (+81.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $4.1K (-59.0%) started 2021-06-18 | $28.81K (+188.1%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $8.42K (-15.8%) started 2018-10-05 | $75.67K (+656.7%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $6.13B | $471.16B |
| Trailing P/E | 17.19 | 39.85 |
| Forward P/E | 15.32 | 25.03 |
| Price/Sales | 3.52 | 4.70 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.08 | 8.03 |
| Analyst target | $74.52 | $127.05 |
| Target upside | +26.37% | +6.28% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 16.00% | 12.00% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | 37.10% |
| EPS growth | N/A | +37.10% |
| FCF margin | +26.55% | +15.29% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 24.99% |
| Profit margin | 21.14% | 19.68% |
| ROIC proxy | 33.38% | 25.23% |
| Return on equity | 33.38% | 25.23% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.41% |
| Beta | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equity | 46.34 | 67.54 |
| Current ratio | 1.68 | 0.93 |
| Quick ratio | 1.52 | 0.70 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ESTC max drawdown54.17%
CSCO max drawdown13.57%
ESTC max wkly drop22.89%
CSCO max wkly drop11.44%
5Y risk snapshot
ESTC max drawdown76.82%
CSCO max drawdown36.68%
ESTC max wkly drop32.32%
CSCO max wkly drop13.61%
10Y risk snapshot
ESTC max drawdown76.82%
CSCO max drawdown41.95%
ESTC max wkly drop32.32%
CSCO max wkly drop16.10%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -29.32% | +81.56% |
| CAGR | -29.33% | +81.72% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.52 | 1.95 | |
| Max drawdown | 54.17% | 13.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.44% | 12.32% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.89% | 11.44% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -59.04% | +153.51% |
| CAGR | -16.35% | +20.48% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.09 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdown | 76.82% | 36.68% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.49% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 32.32% | 13.61% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -15.76% | +448.91% |
| CAGR | -2.20% | +18.57% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.17 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdown | 76.82% | 41.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.49% | 13.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 32.32% | 16.10% |
Business comparison
| Category | ESTC | CSCO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Elastic N.V. | Cisco Systems, Inc. |
| Sector | Search / Observability / Security | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | Elastic is the company behind the Elasticsearch open-source search engine — the world's most popular enterprise search technology. Elastic's commercial platform (Elastic Stack: Elasticsearch, Kibana, Logstash, Beats) provides search, observability (logging and APM), and security analytics (SIEM) for enterprise customers. Elasticsearch's vector search capabilities position it in the AI/RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) market — enterprises use Elasticsearch to enable LLMs to search private knowledge bases. Elastic Cloud is the managed SaaS deployment running on AWS, Azure, and GCP. | Cisco is the world's largest networking equipment company (routers, switches, wireless infrastructure) expanding into cybersecurity through acquisitions including Splunk (acquired March 2024 for $28B). Splunk's SIEM and observability platform adds security analytics and log management capabilities to Cisco's security portfolio (including Cisco SecureX, Umbrella, and Duo Security). Cisco's networking revenue provides a massive installed base for cross-selling security and observability to enterprise IT departments already using Cisco switches and routers. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Elastic's ARR growth, cloud revenue mix expansion, vector search AI adoption (Elasticsearch as AI infrastructure), and security analytics growth as Splunk (now Cisco) raises prices post-acquisition. | Investors focus on Cisco's software/subscription revenue growth, Splunk integration synergies, networking hardware cycle recovery, and gross margin trajectory as Cisco evolves from hardware to software-recurring model. |
ESTC strengths
- →Elasticsearch open-source moat: Elasticsearch has 800M+ downloads — the open-source adoption creates an organic pipeline of enterprises that evaluate Elastic commercial products
- →Vector search for AI/RAG applications: Elasticsearch is a leading vector database for enterprise AI — enabling LLMs to search private enterprise knowledge bases in RAG architectures is a major new use case driving adoption
- →Splunk pricing displacement opportunity: Cisco's acquisition of Splunk has raised enterprise security analytics pricing — Elastic's open-source-rooted pricing is attractive to Splunk customers facing contract renewals at higher rates
CSCO strengths
- →Splunk integration creates security analytics giant: Splunk's SIEM combined with Cisco's networking infrastructure gives Cisco unmatched enterprise threat visibility from network telemetry to security events
- →Installed base for cross-sell: Cisco's networking equipment is in virtually every enterprise data center and campus — Splunk security products can be sold directly to existing Cisco networking customers
- →Dividend and buyback with strong FCF: Cisco generates $15B+ FCF annually from its networking franchise — providing dividend yield (3%+) and consistent buybacks that Elastic doesn't offer
Risks to watch — ESTC
- →Competing with hyperscaler search products: AWS OpenSearch, Azure AI Search, and Google Cloud Search compete with Elasticsearch in cloud deployments at lower prices
- →Open-source licensing controversy: Elastic changed its licensing from Apache 2.0 to SSPL in 2021, prompting AWS to fork Elasticsearch as OpenSearch — a competitive threat from a well-resourced alternative
- →Profitability timeline: Elastic has been investing aggressively in growth with GAAP losses — path to sustained profitability depends on cloud revenue mix reaching sufficient scale
Risks to watch — CSCO
- →Splunk integration execution risk: large acquisitions have integration challenges — combining Cisco networking culture with Splunk's analytics-first startup culture creates organizational risk
- →Networking hardware market maturation: enterprise networking hardware refresh cycles have been lengthening — Cisco's core hardware revenue faces secular slowdown as cloud migration reduces on-premise switching investment
- →Elastic and Datadog competing for Splunk's observability customers: Splunk customers considering alternatives during Cisco integration evaluate Elastic and Datadog as lower-cost independent alternatives
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