What is a chargeback and why does e-commerce fraud prevention matter?

Chargeback mechanism: when a consumer disputes a credit card transaction (claiming they didn't make the purchase, the item wasn't delivered, or the product was not as described), their bank (the issuing bank) initiates a chargeback — reversing the transaction and returning funds to the cardholder; the merchant who made the original sale loses the revenue; the merchant also pays a chargeback fee (typically $15-50 per chargeback from their payment processor); for fraudulent transactions (where a fraudster used stolen card data to make a purchase), the cardholder's dispute results in a chargeback against the legitimate merchant. E-commerce fraud scale: online 'card not present' (CNP) fraud is significantly higher than in-person (card present) transactions because fraudsters can use stolen card data online without needing the physical card; U.S. e-commerce fraud losses exceed $40-50 billion annually; the losses include direct fraud losses, chargeback fees, and the cost of fraud prevention systems. False positives cost: aggressively blocking all suspicious transactions reduces fraud but also incorrectly blocks legitimate customer purchases; studies estimate merchants decline 3-5% of legitimate transactions out of fraud caution; for a $1 billion e-commerce merchant, false declines could cost $30-50M in lost legitimate sales — often more than the fraud losses they're trying to prevent; sophisticated fraud prevention must minimize both fraud losses AND false declines. Riskified's chargeback guarantee: by guaranteeing that its approvals are not fraudulent (and absorbing chargeback costs when wrong), Riskified directly addresses the merchant's concerns on both sides — reduce fraud losses and maximize legitimate transaction approvals; this unique economic alignment is the core of Riskified's business model.

How does AI/ML improve over time in fraud detection?

Supervised learning in fraud: Riskified's AI model is trained on labeled examples — transactions that were confirmed fraudulent (chargebacks) and transactions that were confirmed legitimate; the model learns patterns that distinguish fraud from legitimate purchases; these patterns are extremely complex (including device fingerprinting, browsing behavior, shipping address relationships to prior orders, purchase timing, product combination patterns, and hundreds of other signals) and impossible for human rules to capture. Network effects: Riskified sees transactions from thousands of merchants across many e-commerce verticals; this means that when a new fraud pattern emerges (e.g., a specific bot network starting to use stolen card data in a new way), Riskified sees it across multiple merchants simultaneously; a single merchant would see a smaller signal and take longer to identify the pattern; Riskified's network allows faster fraud pattern identification and model adaptation. Feedback loop: every approved transaction eventually resolves as either legitimate (no chargeback) or fraudulent (chargeback); this feedback flows back to model training; the more transactions Riskified reviews, the more training labels it generates; the more labels, the better the model; the better the model, the more transactions merchants process through Riskified. Velocity and recency: recent transaction data is more relevant than old data because fraud patterns evolve; Riskified continuously retrains models with recent transaction outcomes; this means both new entrants with recent data and incumbent models both must continuously learn; the advantage of incumbents like Riskified is breadth of fraud pattern exposure across many merchant types and geographies rather than just recency.

How is the restaurant POS market evolving with delivery app integration?

Third-party delivery platforms: DoorDash, Uber Eats, Grubhub, and similar platforms now represent 10-30% of many restaurants' total orders; historically, these platforms (and restaurants' own online ordering) were disconnected from the POS system — a kitchen would receive a paper ticket or separate tablet from each platform, creating operational chaos with multiple screens, separate billing, and manual error risk. Integration importance: modern restaurant POS systems (Toast included) integrate directly with third-party delivery platforms via API connections; when a DoorDash order arrives, it appears automatically in the restaurant's Kitchen Display System alongside in-person orders; there's one ticket flow for the kitchen; the order is automatically recorded in the restaurant's inventory and sales reporting; this integration was technically difficult for legacy POS systems (which weren't designed with APIs) but natural for cloud-native systems like Toast. Toast's approach: Toast's online ordering system allows restaurants to take direct online orders through the restaurant's own website without paying a commission to DoorDash or Uber Eats (typically 15-30% commission); direct online ordering at zero commission vs. delivery platform at 30% commission is significant; for a $25 average order, direct online ordering saves the restaurant $7.50 vs. DoorDash; Toast earns a small payment processing fee on direct orders, making the economics clearly favorable for both Toast and the restaurant; this drives adoption of Toast's full ecosystem beyond just the in-restaurant POS.

Last updated: August 4, 2026

brimindinvest.com / compare / tost-vs-rskdLIVE

TOST

Toast, Inc. · Technology - Restaurant Software & Fintech

$32.27

+12.40% this month

VERSUS

⟷

COMPARE

RSKD

Riskified Ltd. · Technology - E-Commerce Fraud Prevention

$5.19

+3.39% this month

Scoreboard verdict

Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin

TOST

1

RSKD

3

RSKD LEADS 3/5

Comparison scoreboard

RSKD LEADS 3/5

AI Score

TOST ✓23.4

RSKD 23.1

1Y Return

TOST -33.93%

RSKD ✓+1.76%

Fwd P/E

TOST 19.43

RSKD ✓14.26

Target Up.

TOST +5.92%

RSKD ✓+8.24%

Op. Margin

TOST N/A

RSKD N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026

Quick take

TOST vs RSKD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

TOST (Toast) and RSKD (Riskified) are both fintech/software companies serving the digital commerce ecosystem in different niches — Toast is the dominant restaurant POS and payment platform serving 120,000+ restaurant locations with GPV-linked revenue, while Riskified is an AI fraud prevention company with a unique chargeback guarantee model serving premium e-commerce merchants in luxury, travel, and ticketing.

TOST vs RSKD is dominant restaurant vertical software platform with payment processing flywheel (Toast's comprehensive restaurant management, 120,000+ locations, GPV-linked fintech revenue, and high switching costs — navigating restaurant operator profitability pressures and path to company-level profitability) versus AI-powered e-commerce fraud guarantee specialist with network effect model improvement (Riskified's chargeback guarantee model, luxury/travel/ticketing focus, and transaction data network effects — managing chargeback loss exposure during novel fraud pattern shifts and competing for premium merchant relationships).

Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026

RSKD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RSKD leads on both 1-year return (+1.76%) and forward P/E quality (14.26x vs 19.43x for TOST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +5.92% for TOST and +8.24% for RSKD.

Normalized 1Y performance

TOST

RSKD

Recent returns

TOST

RSKD

Analyst price targets & sentiment

TOST · 26 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Buy (1.8/5.0)

Price target range

analyst low$24.00
analyst high$45.00
analyst mean$34.73
current price$32.27

+5.9% upside to analyst mean

RSKD · 5 analysts

Price target range

analyst low$4.75
analyst high$7.00
analyst mean$5.65
current price$5.19

+8.2% upside to analyst mean

Who should consider this stock?

TOST may suit investors who:

→Want exposure to the restaurant software digitization trend through the dominant U.S. restaurant POS and payment platform with significant switching costs and growing GPV-linked fintech revenue
→Believe Toast's restaurant management platform (scheduling, inventory, payroll, capital) will continue to expand ARPU as restaurants adopt additional Toast products beyond POS
→See Toast's large installed base of 120,000+ locations and the substantial population of restaurants still on legacy POS systems as providing a long growth runway for continued location expansion

RSKD may suit investors who:

→Want exposure to the e-commerce fraud prevention market through a differentiated chargeback guarantee model that aligns vendor incentives with merchant outcomes
→Believe Riskified's focus on premium luxury, travel, and ticketing merchants provides above-average GMV per merchant and protection from commoditization
→See the AI/ML transaction data network effect as creating an improving competitive moat as Riskified's approval accuracy improves with more data from its global merchant network

Performance & AI score

Performance & AI score
Metric	TOST	RSKD
AI score	23.4	23.1
AI rank	#3522	#3683
Latest close	$32.27	$5.19
1M return	+12.40%	+3.39%
6M return	+3.80%	+19.59%
1Y return	-33.93%	+1.76%

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
Period	TOST	RSKD
1Y ago	$6.61K (-33.9%) started 2025-07-31	$10.18K (+1.8%) started 2025-07-31
5Y ago	$5.16K (-48.4%) started 2021-09-22	$1.83K (-81.7%) started 2021-08-02
10Y ago	$5.16K (-48.4%) started 2021-09-22	$2K (-80.0%) started 2021-07-29

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Valuation & upside potential
Metric	TOST	RSKD
Market cap	$19.02B	$698.46M
Trailing P/E	48.94	N/A
Forward P/E	19.43	14.26
Price/Sales	2.95	1.99
EV/Revenue	2.68	1.43
Analyst target	$34.73	$5.65
Target upside	+5.92%	+8.24%

Growth, profitability & risk

Growth, profitability & risk
Metric	TOST	RSKD
Revenue growth	21.90%	7.10%
Earnings growth	123.00%	N/A
EPS growth	+123.00%	N/A
FCF margin	+9.12%	+12.35%
Operating margin	N/A	N/A
Profit margin	6.39%	-5.17%
ROIC proxy	22.50%	-5.73%
Return on equity	22.50%	-5.73%
Dividend yield	0.00%	0.00%
Beta	1.73	1.35
Debt/equity	0.85	8.77
Current ratio	2.44	5.55
Quick ratio	1.79	5.34

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

TOST max drawdown54.71%

RSKD max drawdown27.95%

TOST max wkly drop21.48%

RSKD max wkly drop19.85%

5Y risk snapshot

TOST max drawdown80.56%

RSKD max drawdown90.17%

TOST max wkly drop36.74%

RSKD max wkly drop41.46%

10Y risk snapshot

TOST max drawdown80.56%

RSKD max drawdown90.17%

TOST max wkly drop36.74%

RSKD max wkly drop41.46%

Performance metrics by period

Performance metrics by period
Period	Metric	TOST	RSKD
1Y	Growth	-33.93%	+1.76%
	CAGR	-33.95%	+1.77%
	Sharpe ratio	-0.75	0.12
	Max drawdown	54.71%	27.95%
	Max daily drop	14.74%	15.78%
	Max wkly drop	21.48%	19.85%
5Y	Growth	-48.38%	-81.67%
	CAGR	-12.73%	-28.81%
	Sharpe ratio	0.01	-0.43
	Max drawdown	80.56%	90.17%
	Max daily drop	22.84%	27.04%
	Max wkly drop	36.74%	41.46%
10Y	Growth	-48.38%	-80.04%
	CAGR	-12.73%	-27.53%
	Sharpe ratio	0.01	-0.40
	Max drawdown	80.56%	90.17%
	Max daily drop	22.84%	27.04%
	Max wkly drop	36.74%	41.46%

Business comparison

Business comparison
Category	TOST	RSKD
Company	Toast, Inc.	Riskified Ltd.
Sector	Technology - Restaurant Software & Fintech	Technology - E-Commerce Fraud Prevention
Industry	N/A	N/A
Core business	Toast Inc. develops and sells a comprehensive cloud-based restaurant management platform including point-of-sale (POS) hardware and software, kitchen display systems, online ordering, digital menus, loyalty programs, employee scheduling, inventory management, and restaurant payment processing. Toast serves approximately 120,000+ restaurant locations in the U.S. and Canada across all restaurant segments: quick-service (fast food), fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and bars/nightclubs. Toast's fintech element is significant — Toast charges payment processing fees on every transaction processed through its platform; as restaurants grow their sales volumes, Toast earns more payment processing revenue; Toast also offers Toast Payroll (restaurant payroll management), Toast Capital (business loans to restaurant operators), and xtraCHEF (restaurant invoice and cost management).	Riskified is an Israeli-American e-commerce fraud prevention company that uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate whether online purchase transactions are fraudulent or legitimate, in real time. Riskified's unique business model is chargeback guarantee — when Riskified approves a transaction as legitimate, Riskified guarantees to the merchant that the transaction is not fraudulent; if the transaction turns out to be fraudulent (resulting in a chargeback from the customer's bank), Riskified absorbs the financial loss (pays the chargeback amount to the merchant); the merchant pays Riskified a fee (percentage of approved transaction value) in exchange for this guarantee. Riskified's customers include major e-commerce brands in luxury goods, travel, ticketing, consumer electronics, and apparel.
Investor focus	Investors track Toast's Gross Payment Volume (GPV, total dollars processed through Toast), location count growth (restaurants using Toast), Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU, revenue per restaurant), and non-GAAP gross margin trajectory toward profitability.	Investors track Riskified's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV, the value of transactions reviewed), revenue growth (percentage fee on approved GMV), chargeback loss ratio (Riskified's primary cost), and gross margin (difference between revenue earned and chargebacks paid).

TOST strengths

→Dominant restaurant vertical software platform with high switching costs — once a restaurant installs Toast hardware and onboards staff to Toast software, switching to a different POS system is extremely disruptive (hardware replacement, data migration, staff retraining); this creates very high switching costs and churn rates consistently below 10%
→GPV-tied revenue benefits from restaurant sales growth — Toast earns payment processing fees on every dollar restaurants collect; as restaurants grow their sales volumes (through higher check averages, more covers, or higher delivery volumes), Toast's payment revenue grows proportionally without requiring new restaurant locations
→Restaurant software market is large and underpenetrated — a large majority of U.S. restaurants still use outdated legacy POS systems (NCR Aloha, Oracle Micros) that were not designed for cloud, mobile ordering, or delivery integration; Toast's modern platform offers demonstrably better functionality, creating significant greenfield conversion opportunity

RSKD strengths

→Chargeback guarantee model aligns Riskified's incentives with merchant interests — by absorbing chargeback losses when Riskified approves fraud, Riskified has every incentive to accurately identify real fraud; merchants pay for approved transaction value, giving Riskified incentive to approve as many legitimate transactions as possible while accurately blocking fraud
→AI/ML model improves continuously with more transaction data — Riskified's network of transactions across all its merchant customers provides training data that continuously improves fraud detection accuracy; more transaction data = better model = better performance = more merchant customers = more transaction data; this network effect becomes a competitive moat over time
→Premium segment focus (luxury, travel, ticketing) protects against commodity fraud prevention competition — Riskified targets merchants selling high-value goods (luxury fashion, airline tickets, concert tickets) where fraud attempts are sophisticated and where declining legitimate transactions is costly; these premium merchants are willing to pay more for high-accuracy fraud prevention

Risks to watch — TOST

→Restaurant industry is facing cost pressures from labor inflation and food costs — many restaurant operators are struggling with margin compression; labor cost increases reduce restaurants' cash flow, potentially leading to closures that are customer churn for Toast
→Competition from Square (Block's restaurant software), Lightspeed Restaurant, and Olo for delivery integration — while Toast has significant market share, several well-funded competitors are expanding restaurant software capabilities; Google's Toast investment also signals the competitive interest in the segment
→Hardware dependency creates margin limitations — Toast's POS terminals, kitchen display systems, and card readers are manufactured and sold at low margins (or subsidized); hardware gross margins drag on overall company gross margin; the financial model requires growing high-margin software and fintech revenue faster than hardware to improve overall gross margins

Risks to watch — RSKD

→Riskified bears the financial loss when its AI misidentifies legitimate transactions as fraudulent — when Riskified wrongly approves a fraudulent transaction, it must pay the chargeback; if fraud patterns shift rapidly (new fraud techniques emerge), Riskified's model accuracy may temporarily fall before adapting, creating chargeback loss spikes
→E-commerce growth rate normalization post-COVID reduces GMV growth tailwind — Riskified's revenue grows with e-commerce GMV; the COVID e-commerce surge was exceptional; as e-commerce growth normalizes, Riskified's GMV growth rate moderates
→Competition from Forter (direct competitor, private), Signifyd, Kount (Equifax), and card network fraud tools — Riskified competes with other chargeback guarantee fraud prevention companies; well-funded competitors like Forter target the same premium merchant segments; differentiation requires continuously maintaining superior model accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Traditional POS: a point-of-sale system records transactions and controls the flow of information in a restaurant; traditional POS systems (NCR Aloha, Oracle Micros SIMPHONY) were client-server systems installed on-premises (local servers, locally installed software); data is stored locally; system updates require on-site IT visits; cloud connectivity was an afterthought; these systems were expensive to install (tens of thousands of dollars), complex to maintain, and not designed for mobile ordering or third-party delivery platform integration. Toast's approach: Toast is a fully cloud-native POS system built on Android-based hardware; all data is stored in the cloud; software updates happen automatically overnight; restaurants can access their analytics from any device, anywhere; Toast hardware runs on commodity Android hardware rather than proprietary servers; Toast's cloud architecture enables real-time integration with third-party delivery apps (DoorDash, Uber Eats, Grubhub), direct online ordering, QR code menu and ordering, and loyalty programs — all centrally managed. The restaurant ecosystem: Toast's full platform goes well beyond POS — it includes kitchen display systems (replacing paper tickets with digital screens showing orders to kitchen staff), handheld ordering devices (servers take orders tableside, transmitted directly to the kitchen), Toast kiosks (self-ordering kiosks for fast casual), Toast Go (mobile payment terminals), Toast Mobile Order and Pay (dine-in QR code ordering), online ordering powered by Toast (no commission delivery direct ordering through restaurant's own website), and Toast Loyalty (customer loyalty and gift card programs); the comprehensive platform means restaurants can replace multiple legacy systems with one Toast subscription.

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+1.1%HOLD

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