Last updated:
LIVE
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$37.46
+5.85% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
MCD
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Discretionary
$265.23
-5.49% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CMG
2
MCD
3
Comparison scoreboard
MCD LEADS 3/5AI Score
CMG ✓50.9
MCD 49.3
1Y Return
CMG ✓-11.90%
MCD -12.43%
Fwd P/E
CMG 27.23
MCD ✓19.17
Target Up.
CMG +18.35%
MCD ✓+19.56%
Op. Margin
CMG 16.11%
MCD ✓44.25%
Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026
Quick take
CMG vs MCD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and McDonald's represent two very different fast food investment models — Chipotle is a fast-growing company-owned chain capturing full restaurant economics, while McDonald's is a mature, near-asset-light franchise royalty business generating exceptional free cash flow. CMG grows faster and reinvests aggressively; MCD returns capital to shareholders consistently and compounding on a massive installed base.
Chipotle suits growth investors who believe its throughput, digital, and international expansion can sustain above-market same-store sales for years; McDonald's suits investors who prefer the exceptional capital efficiency and global scale of the world's most recognized restaurant franchise.
Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026
MCD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-11.90% vs -12.43%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (19.17x vs 27.23x for CMG). MCD leads on both revenue growth (9.40%) and operating margin (44.25%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +18.35% for CMG and +19.56% for MCD.
Normalized 1Y performance
CMG
MCD
Recent returns
CMG
MCD
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CMG
Price target range
analyst mean$44.05
current price$37.46
+18.3% upside to analyst mean
MCD · 28 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$300.00
analyst high$364.00
analyst mean$323.58
current price$265.23
+19.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CMG may suit investors who:
- →want a high-growth fast-casual brand compounding through unit expansion and same-store sales
- →value the company-owned model giving Chipotle direct control over unit economics and brand execution
- →believe the digital loyalty ecosystem and throughput improvements will sustain 5%+ comp sales
- →are comfortable with premium valuation for best-in-class fast-casual execution
MCD may suit investors who:
- →prefer a capital-efficient franchise royalty model generating $7B+ in annual free cash flow
- →want global brand diversification across 100+ countries with a 150M+ loyalty program
- →value consistent dividend growth supported by predictable royalty revenue
- →are comfortable with slower growth in exchange for lower business model risk
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.9 | 49.3 |
| AI rank | #415 | #512 |
| Latest close | $37.46 | $265.23 |
| 1M return | +5.85% | -5.49% |
| 6M return | -2.73% | -16.73% |
| 1Y return | -11.90% | -12.43% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.74K (-12.6%) started 2025-08-04 | $8.72K (-12.8%) started 2025-08-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.86K (-1.4%) started 2021-08-05 | $13.35K (+33.5%) started 2021-08-05 |
| 10Y ago | $46.69K (+366.9%) started 2016-08-05 | $34.75K (+247.5%) started 2016-08-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $47.19B | $190.21B |
| Trailing P/E | 34.46 | 22.33 |
| Forward P/E | 27.23 | 19.17 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.17 | 8.96 |
| Analyst target | $44.05 | $323.58 |
| Target upside | +18.35% | +19.56% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 9.30% | 9.40% |
| Earnings growth | -1.30% | 6.90% |
| EPS growth | -1.30% | +6.90% |
| FCF margin | +8.99% | +21.69% |
| Operating margin | 16.11% | 44.25% |
| Profit margin | 11.43% | 31.62% |
| ROIC proxy | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equity | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 2.75% |
| Beta | 0.96 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equity | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.59 | 0.87 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown36.01%
MCD max drawdown22.95%
CMG max wkly drop23.26%
MCD max wkly drop6.79%
5Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown58.89%
MCD max drawdown22.95%
CMG max wkly drop23.26%
MCD max wkly drop8.35%
10Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown58.89%
MCD max drawdown36.90%
CMG max wkly drop28.03%
MCD max wkly drop27.07%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -12.64% | -12.82% |
| CAGR | -12.67% | -12.85% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.25 | -0.91 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.01% | 22.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.26% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -1.42% | +22.17% |
| CAGR | -0.29% | +4.09% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 58.89% | 22.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.26% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +366.93% | +174.84% |
| CAGR | +16.67% | +10.64% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdown | 58.89% | 36.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.03% | 27.07% |
Business comparison
| Category | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | Restaurants |
| Core business | Chipotle Mexican Grill operates over 3,400 fast-casual Mexican restaurants in North America and Europe, selling burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads made with fresh, never-frozen ingredients. Unlike McDonald's franchise model, Chipotle owns the vast majority of its restaurants, directly capturing unit economics and reinvesting into restaurant throughput improvements. Its 'throughput' strategy — moving customers through the line faster — is the key lever for same-store sales growth. Digital ordering (33%+ of sales) enables loyalty rewards and reduces peak-hour friction. | McDonald's is the world's largest fast food company, operating over 40,000 restaurants in over 100 countries through a franchise model — approximately 95% are franchisee-owned. McDonald's earns revenue from franchise royalties (a percentage of franchisee sales), rent income, and company-operated stores. This near-pure-franchise model generates very high margins and free cash flow with minimal capital requirements compared to company-owned chains. The McValue platform, loyalty program, and digital ordering via the MyMcDonald's app are the primary growth initiatives. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable restaurant sales growth, new restaurant unit openings and AUV (average unit volume), digital channel mix, and restaurant-level operating margin — which reflects the unit economics of each location. | Investors track global comparable sales, US digital order penetration and loyalty member growth (McDonald's has 150M+ active loyalty members), franchisee profitability health, and capital returns via dividends and buybacks. |
CMG strengths
- →Dominant US fast-casual brand with a 'food with integrity' positioning commanding premium pricing
- →Company-owned model captures full restaurant economics versus royalty-only franchise models
- →Throughput improvements (Chipotlane, dual make-lines) can grow same-store sales without requiring new locations
MCD strengths
- →Asset-light franchise model generates $7B+ in annual free cash flow with minimal capex requirements
- →150M+ global loyalty members create a direct marketing channel and repeat visit mechanism
- →Global scale in 100+ countries provides unmatched brand recognition and competitive barriers
Risks to watch — CMG
- →Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for new restaurant builds
- →Valuation consistently at 50x+ earnings requires sustained above-average growth to justify
- →Food safety incidents have historically caused temporary but significant same-store sales disruptions
Risks to watch — MCD
- →Value-oriented consumer sensitivity to price increases — McDonald's has faced value perception challenges
- →Franchisee health — if franchisees face margin pressure, they may resist royalty increases or capex
- →International exposure to geopolitical risks (Russia exit, Middle East boycotts) affecting sales
Frequently asked questions
Free public comparison
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Related comparisons
More comparisons
Browse all 1,000 comparisons →