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CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$32.49
-1.66% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
MCD
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Discretionary
$278.61
-0.78% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CMG
2
MCD
3
Comparison scoreboard
MCD LEADS 3/5AI Score
CMG ✓49.5
MCD 49.1
1Y Return
CMG -36.77%
MCD ✓-4.69%
Fwd P/E
CMG 23.76
MCD ✓20.03
Target Up.
CMG ✓+33.04%
MCD +16.32%
Op. Margin
CMG 13.27%
MCD ✓44.25%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
CMG vs MCD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and McDonald's represent two very different fast food investment models — Chipotle is a fast-growing company-owned chain capturing full restaurant economics, while McDonald's is a mature, near-asset-light franchise royalty business generating exceptional free cash flow. CMG grows faster and reinvests aggressively; MCD returns capital to shareholders consistently and compounding on a massive installed base.
Chipotle suits growth investors who believe its throughput, digital, and international expansion can sustain above-market same-store sales for years; McDonald's suits investors who prefer the exceptional capital efficiency and global scale of the world's most recognized restaurant franchise.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
MCD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MCD leads on both 1-year return (-4.69%) and forward P/E (20.03x vs 23.76x for CMG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MCD leads on both revenue growth (9.40%) and operating margin (44.25%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+33.04%) than for MCD (+16.32%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CMG
MCD
Recent returns
CMG
MCD
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CMG
Price target range
analyst mean$42.88
current price$32.49
+33.0% upside to analyst mean
MCD · 28 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$300.00
analyst high$364.00
analyst mean$331.29
current price$278.61
+16.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CMG may suit investors who:
- →want a high-growth fast-casual brand compounding through unit expansion and same-store sales
- →value the company-owned model giving Chipotle direct control over unit economics and brand execution
- →believe the digital loyalty ecosystem and throughput improvements will sustain 5%+ comp sales
- →are comfortable with premium valuation for best-in-class fast-casual execution
MCD may suit investors who:
- →prefer a capital-efficient franchise royalty model generating $7B+ in annual free cash flow
- →want global brand diversification across 100+ countries with a 150M+ loyalty program
- →value consistent dividend growth supported by predictable royalty revenue
- →are comfortable with slower growth in exchange for lower business model risk
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 49.5 | 49.1 |
| AI rank | #503 | #525 |
| Latest close | $32.49 | $278.61 |
| 1M return | -1.66% | -0.78% |
| 6M return | -12.19% | -12.58% |
| 1Y return | -36.77% | -4.69% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.27K (-37.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.62K (-3.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $11.39K (+13.9%) started 2021-06-21 | $14.24K (+42.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $40.93K (+309.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $35.26K (+252.6%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $41.34B | $202.36B |
| Trailing P/E | 29.57 | 23.48 |
| Forward P/E | 23.76 | 20.03 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.77 | 9.33 |
| Analyst target | $42.88 | $331.29 |
| Target upside | +33.04% | +16.32% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.40% | 9.40% |
| Earnings growth | -17.90% | 6.90% |
| EPS growth | -17.90% | +6.90% |
| FCF margin | +8.96% | +21.69% |
| Operating margin | 13.27% | 44.25% |
| Profit margin | 11.96% | 31.62% |
| ROIC proxy | 49.23% | N/A |
| Return on equity | 49.23% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 2.61% |
| Beta | 0.98 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equity | 217.88 | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.78 | 0.87 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown51.61%
MCD max drawdown20.04%
CMG max wkly drop23.26%
MCD max wkly drop5.66%
5Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown58.89%
MCD max drawdown20.04%
CMG max wkly drop23.26%
MCD max wkly drop8.35%
10Y risk snapshot
CMG max drawdown58.89%
MCD max drawdown36.90%
CMG max wkly drop28.03%
MCD max wkly drop27.07%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -37.31% | -3.80% |
| CAGR | -37.36% | -3.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.14 | -0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.61% | 20.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 3.24% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.26% | 5.66% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +13.87% | +30.27% |
| CAGR | +2.64% | +5.44% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.11 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdown | 58.89% | 20.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.26% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +309.26% | +178.86% |
| CAGR | +15.14% | +10.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.45 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdown | 58.89% | 36.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.18% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.03% | 27.07% |
Business comparison
| Category | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | Restaurants |
| Core business | Chipotle Mexican Grill operates over 3,400 fast-casual Mexican restaurants in North America and Europe, selling burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads made with fresh, never-frozen ingredients. Unlike McDonald's franchise model, Chipotle owns the vast majority of its restaurants, directly capturing unit economics and reinvesting into restaurant throughput improvements. Its 'throughput' strategy — moving customers through the line faster — is the key lever for same-store sales growth. Digital ordering (33%+ of sales) enables loyalty rewards and reduces peak-hour friction. | McDonald's is the world's largest fast food company, operating over 40,000 restaurants in over 100 countries through a franchise model — approximately 95% are franchisee-owned. McDonald's earns revenue from franchise royalties (a percentage of franchisee sales), rent income, and company-operated stores. This near-pure-franchise model generates very high margins and free cash flow with minimal capital requirements compared to company-owned chains. The McValue platform, loyalty program, and digital ordering via the MyMcDonald's app are the primary growth initiatives. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable restaurant sales growth, new restaurant unit openings and AUV (average unit volume), digital channel mix, and restaurant-level operating margin — which reflects the unit economics of each location. | Investors track global comparable sales, US digital order penetration and loyalty member growth (McDonald's has 150M+ active loyalty members), franchisee profitability health, and capital returns via dividends and buybacks. |
CMG strengths
- →Dominant US fast-casual brand with a 'food with integrity' positioning commanding premium pricing
- →Company-owned model captures full restaurant economics versus royalty-only franchise models
- →Throughput improvements (Chipotlane, dual make-lines) can grow same-store sales without requiring new locations
MCD strengths
- →Asset-light franchise model generates $7B+ in annual free cash flow with minimal capex requirements
- →150M+ global loyalty members create a direct marketing channel and repeat visit mechanism
- →Global scale in 100+ countries provides unmatched brand recognition and competitive barriers
Risks to watch — CMG
- →Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for new restaurant builds
- →Valuation consistently at 50x+ earnings requires sustained above-average growth to justify
- →Food safety incidents have historically caused temporary but significant same-store sales disruptions
Risks to watch — MCD
- →Value-oriented consumer sensitivity to price increases — McDonald's has faced value perception challenges
- →Franchisee health — if franchisees face margin pressure, they may resist royalty increases or capex
- →International exposure to geopolitical risks (Russia exit, Middle East boycotts) affecting sales
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