LIVE
CRCL
Circle Internet Group · Financial Technology
$63.02
-19.04% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. · Financial Technology
$47.65
+14.74% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CRCL
1
PYPL
3
Comparison scoreboard
PYPL LEADS 3/5AI Score
CRCL 22.4
PYPL ✓39.6
1Y Return
CRCL -69.21%
PYPL ✓-33.23%
Fwd P/E
CRCL 33.28
PYPL ✓8.05
Target Up.
CRCL ✓+98.25%
PYPL +10.92%
Op. Margin
CRCL N/A
PYPL 17.97%
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
CRCL vs PYPL: Circle vs PayPal Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Circle is the pure-play stablecoin infrastructure company issuing USDC, while PayPal is a diversified digital payments platform that has also launched its own stablecoin (PYUSD). Circle's business is entirely built around stablecoin adoption; PayPal's stablecoin is one small initiative within a much larger payments business.
CRCL vs PYPL is a focused stablecoin infrastructure bet versus a diversified payments platform experimenting with stablecoins — Circle wins if USDC becomes dominant settlement infrastructure; PayPal wins if its existing payment scale allows it to monetize stablecoins as part of a broader digital wallet ecosystem.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
PYPL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PYPL leads on both 1-year return (-33.23%) and forward P/E quality (8.05x vs 33.28x for CRCL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CRCL (+98.25%) than for PYPL (+10.92%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CRCL
PYPL
Recent returns
CRCL
PYPL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CRCL · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$55.00
analyst high$243.00
analyst mean$124.94
current price$63.02
+98.3% upside to analyst mean
PYPL · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$49.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$51.38
current price$47.65
+10.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CRCL may suit investors who:
- →want pure-play exposure to regulated stablecoin adoption through USDC
- →believe stablecoins become mainstream payment, settlement, and cross-border rails
- →are comfortable with interest rate sensitivity and post-IPO valuation risk
- →prefer a focused stablecoin story over a diversified payments platform
PYPL may suit investors who:
- →want a large-scale digital payments platform with proven consumer adoption
- →value PayPal's 430M user base as a distribution channel for stablecoin and new payment features
- →prefer a lower-growth but more diversified digital payments business at a reasonable valuation
- →believe Venmo monetization and margin improvement can drive earnings growth
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 22.4 | 39.6 |
| AI rank | #4151 | #1219 |
| Latest close | $63.02 | $47.65 |
| 1M return | -19.04% | +14.74% |
| 6M return | -23.98% | -17.36% |
| 1Y return | -69.21% | -33.23% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.08K (-69.2%) started 2025-07-14 | $6.45K (-35.5%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $7.57K (-24.3%) started 2025-06-05 | $1.58K (-84.2%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $7.57K (-24.3%) started 2025-06-05 | $11.92K (+19.2%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $16.84B | $40.86B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 8.69 |
| Forward P/E | 33.28 | 8.05 |
| Price/Sales | 5.89 | 2.24 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.95 | 1.28 |
| Analyst target | $124.94 | $51.38 |
| Target upside | +98.25% | +10.92% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.00% | 7.20% |
| Earnings growth | -80.90% | -6.20% |
| EPS growth | -80.90% | -6.20% |
| FCF margin | -4.94% | +12.10% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 17.97% |
| Profit margin | -2.76% | 15.00% |
| ROIC proxy | -2.98% | 25.12% |
| Return on equity | -2.98% | 25.12% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.21% |
| Beta | 2.30 | 1.33 |
| Debt/equity | 0.43 | 58.28 |
| Current ratio | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| Quick ratio | 0.02 | 0.22 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown78.63%
PYPL max drawdown50.04%
CRCL max wkly drop29.00%
PYPL max wkly drop24.88%
5Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown80.93%
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
CRCL max wkly drop31.19%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
10Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown80.93%
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
CRCL max wkly drop31.19%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -69.21% | -35.51% |
| CAGR | -69.24% | -35.63% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.77 | -1.04 | |
| Max drawdown | 78.63% | 50.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 20.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 29.00% | 24.88% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -24.28% | -84.16% |
| CAGR | -22.23% | -30.83% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | -0.77 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.93% | 87.33% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 24.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.19% | 31.59% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -24.28% | +19.24% |
| CAGR | -22.23% | +1.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.93% | 87.33% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 24.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.19% | 31.59% |
Business comparison
| Category | CRCL | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Circle Internet Group | PayPal Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Technology | Financial Services |
| Industry | N/A | Credit Services |
| Core business | Issuer of USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin with $40+ billion in circulation used for crypto trading, cross-border payments, DeFi, and tokenized finance. Circle earns reserve income on USDC collateral and platform transaction fees. | Digital payments platform enabling consumer-to-merchant payments via PayPal, Venmo, Braintree, and Hyperwallet. PayPal has also launched PYUSD, its own stablecoin, and is expanding into buy-now-pay-later, advertising, and checkout optimization. |
| Investor focus | USDC circulation growth, reserve yield and interest rate sensitivity, regulatory clarity for stablecoins, and whether USDC becomes mainstream payment and settlement infrastructure. | Total payment volume (TPV) growth, revenue per active account, PYUSD stablecoin adoption, Venmo monetization, and margin improvement from cost reduction initiatives. |
CRCL strengths
- →USDC is the second-largest regulated stablecoin with established trust and compliance reputation vs unregulated alternatives
- →Reserve income model generates revenue proportional to outstanding USDC supply — directly aligned with stablecoin adoption growth
- →Regulatory tailwinds if US stablecoin legislation legitimizes compliant dollar-backed stablecoins
PYPL strengths
- →430 million active accounts give PayPal one of the world's largest consumer payment user bases
- →PayPal is accepted by millions of merchants globally, giving PYUSD instant distribution potential
- →Venmo is a leading peer-to-peer payment platform with growing monetization through Venmo Pay and debit cards
Risks to watch — CRCL
- →Reserve income is highly sensitive to interest rates — lower rates compress margins significantly
- →PayPal, banks, and other large institutions are launching competing stablecoins
- →Post-IPO valuation is growth-dependent and sensitive to stablecoin adoption speed
Risks to watch — PYPL
- →PayPal's core checkout business faces competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, Shop Pay, and card-linked payments
- →Revenue per active account has been under pressure as consumers diversify payment methods
- →PYUSD adoption has been slow relative to USDC — Circle has a structural head start in institutional stablecoin usage
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