LIVE
COP
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$107.74
-13.88% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$137.81
-15.22% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
COP
4
XOM
1
Comparison scoreboard
COP LEADS 4/5AI Score
COP ✓50.8
XOM 42.2
1Y Return
COP +12.82%
XOM ✓+20.89%
Fwd P/E
COP ✓12.72
XOM 13.82
Target Up.
COP ✓+22.05%
XOM +15.58%
Op. Margin
COP ✓22.05%
XOM 6.35%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
COP vs XOM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are both major US oil companies with significant Permian Basin exposure, but COP is a pure-play E&P while XOM is a fully integrated major with refining, chemicals, and downstream operations. XOM's integration provides earnings diversification across oil price cycles; COP's pure-play model provides more direct oil price leverage and allows more concentrated capital return to shareholders.
COP vs XOM is a choice between the focused pure-play E&P with best-in-class variable return mechanism (ConocoPhillips) and the integrated major with diversified earnings streams, the most reliable dividend in energy, and Pioneer-driven Permian dominance (ExxonMobil).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
COP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+20.89% vs +12.82%), though COP trades at the lower forward P/E (12.72x vs 13.82x). On fundamentals, XOM is growing revenue faster (2.60%), while COP maintains the higher operating margin (22.05%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COP (+22.05%) than for XOM (+15.58%).
Normalized 1Y performance
COP
XOM
Recent returns
COP
XOM
Analyst price targets & sentiment
COP
Price target range
analyst mean$142.77
current price$107.74
+22.0% upside to analyst mean
XOM · 26 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$95.00
analyst mean$169.91
current price$137.81
+15.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
COP may suit investors who:
- →prefer pure-play E&P oil price exposure without downstream refining margin noise from chemicals and fuel retail
- →value VROC variable return mechanism that directly passes oil cycle upside to shareholders
- →want lower total enterprise value with more concentrated capital allocation entirely to E&P production growth
- →are comfortable with pure-play model's higher earnings volatility at oil price extremes vs integrated model buffer
XOM may suit investors who:
- →prefer the largest integrated oil major with diversified downstream, chemicals, and upstream earnings across oil cycles
- →value XOM's 40+ year consecutive dividend increase record and superior dividend reliability vs COP's variable return model
- →want the Permian Basin's dominant integrated operator with Pioneer's inventory as a multi-decade production growth engine
- →are comfortable with larger enterprise value, higher multiple, and Pioneer integration complexity
Performance & AI score
| Metric | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.8 | 42.2 |
| AI rank | #414 | #870 |
| Latest close | $107.74 | $137.81 |
| 1M return | -13.88% | -15.22% |
| 6M return | +13.46% | +17.38% |
| 1Y return | +12.82% | +20.89% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.49K (+14.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $12.18K (+21.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $24.07K (+140.7%) started 2021-06-21 | $30.22K (+202.2%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $43.58K (+335.8%) started 2016-06-20 | $37.03K (+270.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $142.52B | $609.35B |
| Trailing P/E | 19.83 | 24.75 |
| Forward P/E | 12.72 | 13.82 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 1.32 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.69 | 2.01 |
| Analyst target | $142.77 | $169.91 |
| Target upside | +22.05% | +15.58% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -5.30% | 2.60% |
| Earnings growth | -20.20% | -43.40% |
| EPS growth | -20.20% | -43.40% |
| FCF margin | +8.91% | +3.57% |
| Operating margin | 22.05% | 6.35% |
| Profit margin | 12.33% | 7.76% |
| ROIC proxy | 11.28% | 9.87% |
| Return on equity | 11.28% | 9.87% |
| Dividend yield | 2.87% | 2.80% |
| Beta | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Debt/equity | 36.14 | 18.26 |
| Current ratio | 1.29 | 1.04 |
| Quick ratio | 1.07 | 0.74 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
COP max drawdown19.48%
XOM max drawdown19.63%
COP max wkly drop9.85%
XOM max wkly drop9.01%
5Y risk snapshot
COP max drawdown36.30%
XOM max drawdown20.51%
COP max wkly drop21.57%
XOM max wkly drop15.35%
10Y risk snapshot
COP max drawdown70.66%
XOM max drawdown61.34%
COP max wkly drop40.88%
XOM max wkly drop25.80%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +14.86% | +21.75% |
| CAGR | +14.88% | +21.79% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.47 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdown | 19.48% | 19.63% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.97% | 5.23% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.85% | 9.01% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +106.18% | +156.44% |
| CAGR | +15.60% | +20.76% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.47 | 0.67 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.30% | 20.51% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.23% | 7.89% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.57% | 15.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +217.68% | +126.22% |
| CAGR | +12.26% | +8.51% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.38 | 0.27 | |
| Max drawdown | 70.66% | 61.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.84% | 12.22% | |
| Max wkly drop | 40.88% | 25.80% |
Business comparison
| Category | COP | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ConocoPhillips | Exxon Mobil Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | N/A | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | ConocoPhillips is a pure-play E&P company focused entirely on finding, developing, and producing oil and gas. Unlike ExxonMobil, COP does not own downstream refining, chemicals, or fuel retail operations. This pure-play model means COP's earnings are more directly correlated to oil and gas prices, and capital can be fully directed toward production growth and per-share cash return. COP's $40–45/barrel breakeven is one of the lowest in the industry. | ExxonMobil is the world's largest publicly traded integrated oil company, with operations spanning upstream E&P (including Pioneer Natural Resources in the Permian), downstream refining and fuel, chemicals (ExxonMobil Chemical), and low-carbon solutions. Its integrated model provides natural hedging — refining margins improve when crude prices fall, partially offsetting upstream earnings declines. XOM's Pioneer acquisition made it the dominant Permian Basin producer with 570,000+ BOE/day in the basin. |
| Investor focus | Investors track per-barrel operating costs, VROC variable returns to shareholders, free cash flow per share at various oil prices, and production growth per share as COP's key value creation metrics. | Investors track upstream production volumes and Permian Basin growth, downstream refining margins (refinery complexity and capacity utilization), ExxonMobil Chemical margins, Pioneer integration progress, and dividend reliability (XOM has increased dividends for 40+ consecutive years). |
COP strengths
- →Pure-play E&P model provides direct, clean exposure to oil and gas prices without downstream refining margin noise
- →VROC variable distribution mechanism uniquely aligns shareholder returns with oil price cycle economics
- →Low-cost global asset base provides free cash flow generation at oil prices significantly below market cycle averages
XOM strengths
- →Dominant Permian Basin position after Pioneer acquisition with the lowest cost per barrel in the basin at scale
- →Integrated model provides earnings diversification — chemicals and refining generate earnings when upstream margins compress
- →40+ consecutive years of dividend increases makes XOM one of the most reliable dividend growth stocks in energy
Risks to watch — COP
- →Pure E&P model means COP has no downstream earnings buffer during oil price downturns, unlike ExxonMobil's integrated model
- →Marathon Oil integration must deliver on promised cost synergies and production growth milestones
- →Willow Alaska development requires multi-billion capital commitment before generating production or cash flow
Risks to watch — XOM
- →Premium valuation as the largest US integrated major — XOM typically trades at a higher multiple than pure-play E&P peers
- →Pioneer integration is a massive organizational challenge requiring operational harmonization of two large E&P companies
- →Downstream refining margins are volatile and can compress XOM's consolidated earnings during refining margin cycles
Frequently asked questions
Free public comparison
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Related comparisons
More comparisons
Browse all 1,000 comparisons →