HD vs LOW: Home Depot vs Lowe's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Home Depot is the larger, more Pro-oriented home improvement retailer with the SRS Distribution acquisition accelerating its contractor strategy; Lowe's is the #2 player with a strong margin improvement track record, more DIY exposure, and an active buyback program. Both are highly correlated to the US housing cycle and trade closely together.
Use this HD vs LOW comparison to choose between the home improvement market leader and a margin-improving challenger. Home Depot offers superior scale and the SRS Distribution Pro growth catalyst; Lowe's offers stronger recent margin expansion and more aggressive buyback-driven EPS growth from a lower market cap base.
LOW holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LOW leads on both 1-year return (-10.98%) and forward P/E quality (15.49x vs 21.06x for HD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, LOW is growing revenue faster (10.30%), while HD maintains the higher operating margin (11.93%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LOW (+26.35%) than for HD (+9.29%).
- →Want the home improvement market leader with the most complete Pro contractor strategy
- →Value the SRS Distribution acquisition as a structural deepening of HD's professional customer base
- →Prefer the larger store network and brand recognition that comes with scale leadership
- →Seek consistent long-term dividend growth backed by superior free cash flow
- →Want home improvement exposure with a more aggressive buyback-driven EPS growth dynamic
- →Value Lowe's margin expansion track record as evidence of operational discipline
- →Prefer slightly more DIY mix as a balance to HD's heavier Pro contractor orientation
- →Are comfortable with the #2 market position at a potential valuation discount to HD
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.2 | 51.1 |
| AI rank | #501 | #437 |
| Latest close | $324.71 | $201.92 |
| 1M return | +0.08% | -5.44% |
| 6M return | -15.58% | -27.13% |
| 1Y return | -12.48% | -10.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.63K (-13.7%) started 2025-07-23 | $8.83K (-11.7%) started 2025-07-23 |
| 5Y ago | $11.84K (+18.4%) started 2021-07-26 | $11.8K (+18.0%) started 2021-07-26 |
| 10Y ago | $36.99K (+269.9%) started 2016-07-25 | $34.94K (+249.4%) started 2016-07-25 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $337.89B | $117.04B |
| Trailing P/E | 24.10 | 17.64 |
| Forward P/E | 21.06 | 15.49 |
| Price/Sales | 2.24 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Analyst target | $370.34 | $263.73 |
| Target upside | +9.29% | +26.35% |
| Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 4.80% | 10.30% |
| Earnings growth | -4.30% | -0.70% |
| EPS growth | -4.30% | -0.70% |
| FCF margin | +6.08% | +5.45% |
| Operating margin | 11.93% | 11.07% |
| Profit margin | 8.41% | 7.51% |
| ROIC proxy | 128.38% | N/A |
| Return on equity | 128.38% | N/A |
| Dividend yield | 2.75% | 2.40% |
| Beta | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| Debt/equity | 459.36 | N/A |
| Current ratio | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| Quick ratio | 0.23 | 0.10 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -13.72% | -11.67% |
| CAGR | -13.74% | -11.69% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.65 | -0.50 | |
| Max drawdown | 29.74% | 29.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.02% | 5.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.09% | 7.76% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +7.50% | +9.65% |
| CAGR | +1.46% | +1.86% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.00 | 0.03 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.73% | 33.86% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.85% | 6.19% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.68% | 11.67% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +193.24% | +193.17% |
| CAGR | +11.37% | +11.36% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.38 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 37.99% | 48.63% | |
| Max daily drop | 19.79% | 24.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.90% | 34.42% |
| Category | HD | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Home Depot, Inc. | Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Home Improvement Retail | N/A |
| Core business | World's largest home improvement retailer with approximately 2,300 US stores. Acquired SRS Distribution in 2024 to deepen its position with roofing, landscaping, and pool contractors. Pro contractors account for over 50% of sales. | Second-largest US home improvement retailer with approximately 1,750 stores. The 'Total Home Strategy' focuses on deepening Pro contractor penetration, improving DIY efficiency, and expanding online and installation services. |
| Investor focus | Pro contractor penetration deepening via SRS Distribution, comparable sales recovery as the housing market stabilises, supply chain efficiency, and margin durability. | Pro contractor penetration catching up to Home Depot, comparable sales trajectory, operating margin expansion, and capital return via buybacks and dividends. |
- →Scale advantages — larger store base, stronger brand, and superior supply chain vs Lowe's
- →SRS Distribution acquisition significantly deepens the Pro contractor relationship and adds a distribution channel
- →Consistent 14+ year dividend growth record with exceptional free cash flow generation
- →Strong operating margin improvement track record — management has successfully expanded margins over recent years
- →More DIY-focused mix than HD provides some resilience when Pro spending cycles down
- →Active buyback program has significantly reduced the share count, supporting EPS growth
- →Housing turnover has slowed significantly — existing home sales are the primary demand driver for big-ticket home improvement
- →SRS integration execution and leverage from the $18.25B acquisition
- →Comparable sales remain soft as consumers defer large renovation projects
- →Still trails Home Depot on Pro contractor penetration — closing that gap is the key long-term growth lever
- →Housing cycle sensitivity similar to HD — existing home sales slowdown directly impacts big-ticket demand
- →No comparable strategic acquisition to HD's SRS deal — Pro strategy execution is more organic
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.