LIVE
TGT
Target Corporation · Consumer Staples
$130.74
+2.75% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
WMT
Walmart Inc. · Consumer Staples
$117.18
-12.68% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TGT
3
WMT
2
Comparison scoreboard
TGT LEADS 3/5AI Score
TGT 48.6
WMT ✓53.3
1Y Return
TGT ✓+37.59%
WMT +24.33%
Fwd P/E
TGT ✓15.19
WMT 36.81
Target Up.
TGT -2.53%
WMT ✓+14.31%
Op. Margin
TGT ✓4.52%
WMT 4.22%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
TGT vs WMT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Target and Walmart are both major US big-box retailers, but they serve different consumer segments and have very different strategic identities. Walmart is the global volume leader with unmatched grocery pricing power and growing advertising revenue. Target is the aspirational discount retailer whose business mix leans heavier toward discretionary goods and private brands. Walmart has outperformed significantly in recent years due to its grocery market share gains.
Walmart is the more durable compounder given its grocery dominance and growing advertising business; Target offers recovery potential from a depressed base if discretionary spending and margin normalization play out — investors must decide which narrative they believe more.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TGT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TGT leads on both 1-year return (+37.59%) and forward P/E (15.19x vs 36.81x for WMT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, WMT is growing revenue faster (7.30%), while TGT maintains the higher operating margin (4.52%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WMT (+14.31%) than for TGT (-2.53%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TGT
WMT
Recent returns
TGT
WMT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TGT · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$80.00
analyst high$135.00
analyst mean$131.81
current price$130.74
-2.5% upside to analyst mean
WMT · 40 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$64.00
analyst mean$138.37
current price$117.18
+14.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TGT may suit investors who:
- →believe Target's discretionary category recovery and owned brand strength will restore margin profile
- →value aspirational discount positioning targeting middle-to-upper-middle-income households
- →want a high-dividend retail compounder with a track record of 50+ consecutive dividend increases
- →are willing to accept more earnings cyclicality in exchange for a lower entry valuation
WMT may suit investors who:
- →want the most defensible US retail franchise anchored by grocery market dominance
- →value growing high-margin revenue streams from Walmart Connect advertising and Walmart+ membership
- →prefer global retail exposure via Flipkart and Walmex alongside the domestic business
- →are comfortable paying a premium multiple for superior execution and earnings predictability
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 48.6 | 53.3 |
| AI rank | #548 | #305 |
| Latest close | $130.74 | $117.18 |
| 1M return | +2.75% | -12.68% |
| 6M return | +32.60% | +1.31% |
| 1Y return | +37.59% | +24.33% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.74K (+37.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $12.32K (+23.2%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $7K (-30.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $28.84K (+188.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $33.4K (+234.0%) started 2016-06-20 | $69.43K (+594.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $61.42B | $963.25B |
| Trailing P/E | 17.86 | 42.62 |
| Forward P/E | 15.19 | 36.81 |
| Price/Sales | 0.42 | 1.14 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.72 | 1.43 |
| Analyst target | $131.81 | $138.37 |
| Target upside | -2.53% | +14.31% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 6.70% | 7.30% |
| Earnings growth | -24.70% | 19.40% |
| EPS growth | -24.70% | +19.40% |
| FCF margin | +2.95% | +0.95% |
| Operating margin | 4.52% | 4.22% |
| Profit margin | 3.24% | 3.14% |
| ROIC proxy | 22.02% | 24.13% |
| Return on equity | 22.02% | 24.13% |
| Dividend yield | 3.43% | 0.82% |
| Beta | 0.99 | 0.60 |
| Debt/equity | 117.55 | 74.82 |
| Current ratio | 0.93 | 0.77 |
| Quick ratio | 0.18 | 0.19 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown22.11%
WMT max drawdown15.75%
TGT max wkly drop8.78%
WMT max wkly drop11.67%
5Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown65.22%
WMT max drawdown25.74%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
10Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown65.22%
WMT max drawdown25.74%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +37.45% | +23.23% |
| CAGR | +37.51% | +23.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.07 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdown | 22.11% | 15.75% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.33% | 7.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.78% | 11.67% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -37.65% | +172.44% |
| CAGR | -9.03% | +22.23% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.21 | 0.83 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.22% | 25.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.93% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.35% | 19.49% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +148.80% | +482.04% |
| CAGR | +9.55% | +19.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.31 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.22% | 25.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.93% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.35% | 19.49% |
Business comparison
| Category | TGT | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Target Corporation | Walmart Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Target operates approximately 1,900 large-format discount stores selling general merchandise, apparel, home goods, electronics, and groceries under one roof. Its differentiated model relies on exclusive owned brands (Cat & Jack, Good & Gather, All in Motion), designer collaborations, and an aesthetically appealing shopping environment to attract higher-income shoppers than traditional discount competitors. Target's same-day fulfillment services (Drive Up, Order Pickup) leverage the store network for omnichannel delivery. | Walmart is the world's largest retailer by revenue, operating hypermarkets, discount stores, and Neighborhood Markets in the US plus international retail through Walmex, Flipkart (India), and other subsidiaries. Sam's Club (membership warehouse club) contributes significant earnings. Walmart's competitive advantage is EDLP (everyday low prices) enabled by enormous supply chain scale and the ability to offer grocery prices that competitors cannot match. Walmart Connect (advertising) and Walmart+ membership add high-margin revenue streams. |
| Investor focus | Investors track same-store sales (as an indicator of traffic and basket size), gross margin recovery after its inventory destocking crisis, the performance of private label brands, and whether discretionary (apparel, home) category sales normalize as inflation subsides. | Investors track US comparable sales (food and general merchandise), Walmart+ membership growth, advertising revenue (Walmart Connect) as a high-margin addition, e-commerce penetration, and international segment performance — especially Flipkart's trajectory in India. |
TGT strengths
- →Owned brands portfolio (30+ brands, $30B+ in revenue) generate higher margins than national brands
- →Drive Up same-day pickup has the highest customer satisfaction scores in retail
- →Aspirational discount positioning attracts higher-income shoppers versus Walmart or Dollar General
WMT strengths
- →Unmatched grocery pricing power — Walmart controls ~25% of US grocery spend giving it enormous buying leverage
- →Walmart Connect advertising platform is a fast-growing high-margin business benefiting from retail media trends
- →Flipkart and Walmex provide exposure to rapidly growing emerging market retail consumer spending
Risks to watch — TGT
- →Discretionary category (apparel, home) revenue sensitivity to consumer spending shifts
- →Inventory management challenges — the 2022 markdown crisis illustrated markdown risk
- →Grocery weakness relative to Walmart as Target's food offering is narrower
Risks to watch — WMT
- →Grocery-centric traffic attracts value-seeking consumers who may pull back on general merchandise spending
- →International operations complexity — Flipkart profitability timeline in India remains uncertain
- →Premium to market valuation requires sustained high single-digit earnings growth to justify
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