T vs TMUS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AT&T and T-Mobile offer two different approaches to US connectivity growth — AT&T is investing heavily in fiber broadband infrastructure to compete directly with cable, while T-Mobile leverages its 5G spectrum advantage to grow wireless market share and offer fixed wireless broadband without fiber investment. T has a higher dividend yield; TMUS has a faster earnings growth trajectory.
AT&T is the infrastructure investment play — committing billions to fiber that should generate long-term broadband returns — while T-Mobile is the wireless efficiency play, compounding subscriber gains and ARPU from its spectrum advantage; the choice depends on whether an investor wants yield today or growth compounding.
TMUS holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TMUS has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-17.96% vs -20.40%), though T trades at the lower forward P/E (9.25x vs 13.53x). TMUS leads on both revenue growth (10.60%) and operating margin (24.01%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TMUS (+37.92%) than for T (+28.42%).
- →want a high-yield connectivity dividend with the fiber broadband growth story as an upside catalyst
- →believe AT&T Fiber's market share gains against cable will drive sustained EBITDA growth
- →prefer a higher near-term income yield while the long-term fiber investment thesis matures
- →are comfortable with more elevated debt levels from the legacy media acquisition era
- →want the US wireless market share leader with a proven 5G network advantage
- →value free cash flow compounding from Sprint synergies driving buybacks and earnings growth
- →prefer a lower-yield but faster-growing telecom over a higher-yield slower compounder
- →believe FWA broadband can sustain T-Mobile's growth as wireless subscriber adds naturally moderate
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 40.1 | 51.0 |
| AI rank | #1078 | #403 |
| Latest close | $22.01 | $181.67 |
| 1M return | -11.89% | -6.07% |
| 6M return | -9.65% | -8.88% |
| 1Y return | -20.40% | -17.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.96K (-20.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $8.22K (-17.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.91K (+79.1%) started 2021-06-21 | $13.04K (+30.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $34.39K (+243.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $44.93K (+349.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $163.84B | $204.64B |
| Trailing P/E | 7.76 | 20.07 |
| Forward P/E | 9.25 | 13.53 |
| Price/Sales | 1.64 | 3.38 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.60 | 3.57 |
| Analyst target | $30.28 | $260.81 |
| Target upside | +28.42% | +37.92% |
| Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.90% | 10.60% |
| Earnings growth | -11.30% | -12.00% |
| EPS growth | -11.30% | -12.00% |
| FCF margin | +6.99% | +12.31% |
| Operating margin | 22.72% | 24.01% |
| Profit margin | 16.94% | 11.65% |
| ROIC proxy | 18.37% | 18.02% |
| Return on equity | 18.37% | 18.02% |
| Dividend yield | 4.71% | 2.16% |
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Debt/equity | 125.17 | 218.57 |
| Current ratio | 0.92 | 1.09 |
| Quick ratio | 0.52 | 0.70 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -20.43% | -17.79% |
| CAGR | -20.45% | -17.82% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.10 | -0.85 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.69% | 31.66% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.42% | 3.97% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.57% | 7.87% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +31.92% | +27.54% |
| CAGR | +5.71% | +4.99% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.17 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 32.01% | 35.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.41% | 11.22% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.69% | 11.17% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +37.75% | +339.39% |
| CAGR | +3.26% | +15.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.07 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdown | 39.43% | 35.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.41% | 11.22% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.46% | 14.58% |
| Category | T | TMUS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AT&T Inc. | T-Mobile US, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Telecom Services | Telecom Services |
| Core business | AT&T is a focused connectivity company following the WarnerMedia spin-off, now primarily competing in consumer and business wireless, and fiber broadband. AT&T Fiber — its consumer fiber internet service — is the key growth pillar, targeting 30M+ passings by 2025 and gaining market share from cable competitors. The wireless segment generates the majority of revenue, with postpaid net adds competitive with T-Mobile in recent periods. | T-Mobile is the US wireless market leader in postpaid subscriber adds, known for its 5G network built on Sprint's 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum. Its fixed wireless access broadband product is now serving 5M+ customers, competing with cable in markets where T-Mobile lacks fiber infrastructure. The company is focused on ARPU expansion as its subscriber growth engine matures, and is increasingly targeting enterprise wireless clients. |
| Investor focus | Investors track postpaid wireless net adds, AT&T Fiber net adds and penetration, free cash flow per share against the dividend, and debt reduction trajectory from the WarnerMedia era. | Investors track postpaid phone net adds as a market share indicator, FWA broadband subscriber growth, ARPU expansion (the transition from value to premium positioning), and free cash flow compounding from Sprint synergy delivery. |
- →AT&T Fiber competitive momentum gaining broadband share from Comcast and Charter
- →Simplified post-WarnerMedia business model focused on connectivity
- →Strong free cash flow generation supporting dividend coverage and debt paydown
- →Dominant 5G mid-band coverage giving best-in-class network speed and reliability
- →FWA broadband serving 5M+ homes providing a broadband revenue stream without fiber investment
- →Sprint merger synergies exceeded targets, driving strong free cash flow and buyback capacity
- →Heavy legacy debt limits capital return flexibility and financial optionality
- →Fiber build requires sustained capex investment over multiple years
- →DirecTV satellite video decline is an ongoing headwind until divested or wound down
- →Subscriber growth will naturally slow as the easiest market share gains have been captured
- →ARPU expansion requires successfully moving up-market against entrenched premium carrier perceptions
- →FWA broadband faces long-term capacity constraints in high-density markets as users increase data consumption
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