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RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · Industrials - Space Launch & Systems
$64.95
-35.10% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Communication Services - Space-Based Cellular Broadband
$58.98
-31.50% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
RKLB
3
ASTS
1
Comparison scoreboard
RKLB LEADS 3/5AI Score
RKLB 57.5
ASTS ✓58.0
1Y Return
RKLB ✓+41.44%
ASTS +10.93%
Fwd P/E
RKLB ✓1354.42
ASTS -244.12
Target Up.
RKLB ✓+62.53%
ASTS +26.70%
Op. Margin
RKLB N/A
ASTS N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026
Quick take
RKLB vs ASTS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RKLB (Rocket Lab) is a more operationally mature space company with established revenue from satellite launch and components, while ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is an earlier-stage company with potentially transformative but technically and financially unproven direct-to-smartphone satellite broadband ambitions. Both are speculative growth bets on commercial space.
RKLB vs ASTS compares two commercial space investment theses: Rocket Lab's more diversified and operationally proven space services business versus AST SpaceMobile's transformative but technically complex direct-to-phone satellite broadband opportunity.
Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB leads on both 1-year return (+41.44%) and forward P/E quality (1354.42x vs -244.12x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RKLB (+62.53%) than for ASTS (+26.70%).
Normalized 1Y performance
RKLB
ASTS
Recent returns
RKLB
ASTS
Analyst price targets & sentiment
RKLB · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$77.00
analyst high$150.00
analyst mean$114.47
current price$64.95
+62.5% upside to analyst mean
ASTS · 11 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$42.50
analyst high$108.00
analyst mean$80.48
current price$58.98
+26.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
RKLB may suit investors who:
- →Want commercial space exposure through a diversified, operationally proven launch and space systems company
- →Value Rocket Lab's track record of consistent technical execution in commercial space
- →See Neutron as a meaningful medium-term growth catalyst while Electron and Space Systems sustain revenue
ASTS may suit investors who:
- →Want high-risk, high-reward exposure to direct-to-smartphone satellite broadband
- →Believe AST's MNO partnerships validate the commercial model for space-based cellular coverage
- →Are comfortable with significant technology, execution, and capital risk in exchange for potentially transformative upside
Performance & AI score
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 57.5 | 58.0 |
| AI rank | #205 | #196 |
| Latest close | $64.95 | $58.98 |
| 1M return | -35.10% | -31.50% |
| 6M return | -24.19% | -51.69% |
| 1Y return | +41.44% | +10.93% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.14K (+41.4%) started 2025-07-31 | $11.09K (+10.9%) started 2025-07-31 |
| 5Y ago | $64.82K (+548.2%) started 2021-08-02 | $52.29K (+422.9%) started 2021-08-02 |
| 10Y ago | $66.66K (+566.6%) started 2020-11-24 | $60.37K (+503.7%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $44.01B | $24.65B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 1354.42 | -244.12 |
| Price/Sales | 64.75 | 290.27 |
| EV/Revenue | 58.15 | 229.82 |
| Analyst target | $114.47 | $80.48 |
| Target upside | +62.53% | +26.70% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 63.50% | 1952.20% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | -31.64% | -1663.33% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -26.87% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxy | -13.55% | -37.75% |
| Return on equity | -13.55% | -37.75% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.63 | 2.75 |
| Debt/equity | 6.12 | 112.42 |
| Current ratio | 4.47 | 18.47 |
| Quick ratio | 3.87 | 17.91 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
RKLB max drawdown60.99%
ASTS max drawdown60.15%
RKLB max wkly drop25.27%
ASTS max wkly drop25.54%
5Y risk snapshot
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
ASTS max drawdown85.57%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
10Y risk snapshot
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
ASTS max drawdown91.07%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +41.44% | +10.93% |
| CAGR | +41.48% | +10.94% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdown | 60.99% | 60.15% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.70% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.27% | 25.54% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +548.20% | +422.87% |
| CAGR | +45.39% | +39.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.80 | 0.77 | |
| Max drawdown | 82.96% | 85.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.60% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +566.56% | +503.68% |
| CAGR | +39.64% | +30.54% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.75 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdown | 82.96% | 91.07% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.60% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 33.07% |
Business comparison
| Category | RKLB | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials - Space Launch & Systems | Communication Services - Space-Based Cellular Broadband |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Rocket Lab operates the Electron small satellite launcher and Space Systems component and spacecraft business, with the Neutron medium-lift rocket in development, serving commercial and government satellite operators globally. | AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based broadband cellular network using very large satellites (BlueBird constellation) that connect directly to standard smartphones, aiming to eliminate mobile connectivity dead zones globally without specialized hardware. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Electron launch cadence and revenue, Space Systems component revenue growth, and Neutron rocket development milestones as the company builds toward medium-lift market entry. | Investors track AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellite constellation deployment, commercial service launch with MNO (mobile network operator) partners, and revenue ramp from mobile operators paying for access to AST's space-based coverage. |
RKLB strengths
- →Established launch track record with Electron as one of the world's most-launched small rockets
- →Diversified revenue from both launch services and space systems components
- →Management credibility from consistently achieving technical milestones in commercial space
ASTS strengths
- →If successful, direct-to-phone satellite broadband addresses a genuinely large global coverage gap affecting billions of people
- →Partnerships with major mobile operators (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten) validate the commercial concept
- →First mover advantage in large-LEO direct-to-standard-phone satellite service
Risks to watch — RKLB
- →Neutron rocket development represents a significant capital investment and technology challenge
- →Small satellite market competition remains intense
- →Profitability timeline extends as Neutron investment is front-loaded
Risks to watch — ASTS
- →Technology and regulatory complexity for deploying large LEO satellites for direct cell service is enormous
- →Significant capital required for full constellation build-out before commercial revenue scales
- →Competes with SpaceX Starlink's direct-to-cell product and other emerging satellite-to-phone solutions
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