LIVE
LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc. · Space Technology
$22.85
-29.61% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · Space Technology
$107.24
-15.76% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
LUNR
1
RKLB
3
Comparison scoreboard
RKLB LEADS 3/5AI Score
LUNR 40.3
RKLB ✓59.6
1Y Return
LUNR +124.90%
RKLB ✓+285.06%
Fwd P/E
LUNR -190.42
RKLB ✓-6103.59
Target Up.
LUNR ✓+78.46%
RKLB -0.30%
Op. Margin
LUNR N/A
RKLB N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
LUNR vs RKLB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
LUNR and RKLB are both new space economy companies but in different segments. Intuitive Machines is building the commercial lunar services infrastructure with NASA CLPS contracts — a first-mover in the emerging moon economy. Rocket Lab is an operational small satellite launch provider with growing Space Systems components revenue and the Neutron medium-lift rocket in development. LUNR is the pure lunar economy bet; RKLB is the operational small satellite launch and space systems company with a larger addressable market.
LUNR vs RKLB — Intuitive Machines (the first successful US commercial Moon lander providing lunar surface delivery and communication relay services under NASA CLPS as the first-mover in commercial lunar infrastructure) versus Rocket Lab (the world's most frequently launched small rocket operator with growing Space Systems components revenue developing Neutron medium-lift for the high-margin launch market).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB leads on both 1-year return (+285.06%) and forward P/E (-6103.59x vs -190.42x for LUNR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LUNR (+78.46%) than for RKLB (-0.30%).
Normalized 1Y performance
LUNR
RKLB
Recent returns
LUNR
RKLB
Analyst price targets & sentiment
LUNR · 9 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$11.00
analyst high$75.00
analyst mean$40.78
current price$22.85
+78.5% upside to analyst mean
RKLB · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$60.00
analyst high$150.00
analyst mean$106.92
current price$107.24
-0.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
LUNR may suit investors who:
- →believe the commercial lunar economy is a genuine multi-decade investment theme — as NASA's Artemis program progresses toward a permanent lunar base, Intuitive Machines is uniquely positioned as the US commercial infrastructure provider
- →want pure-play exposure to commercial lunar services with the IM-1 successful landing validation — proving Intuitive Machines can deliver on its technical lunar mission capability
- →see NASA's CLPS and Near Space Network contracts as visible multi-year revenue providing investment thesis validation beyond speculative moon economy narratives
- →are comfortable with lunar mission technical risk, government contract concentration, and a market cap based on future commercial lunar economy potential rather than current financial scale
RKLB may suit investors who:
- →prefer a commercial space company with actual recurring revenue ($300M+), operational launch cadence (50+ Electron launches), and a diversified business across launch and Space Systems components
- →see Neutron medium-lift rocket development as a transformational optionality — if Neutron succeeds, Rocket Lab addresses the much larger medium-payload satellite launch market dominated by SpaceX
- →want space economy exposure with more financial stability than LUNR's mission-dependent revenue — Rocket Lab's Space Systems revenue provides a recurring base less dependent on individual mission success or failure
- →are comfortable with SpaceX competition in both small and medium launch, Neutron development timeline and cost overrun risks, and the multi-year path to operating profitability
Performance & AI score
| Metric | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 40.3 | 59.6 |
| AI rank | #1067 | #170 |
| Latest close | $22.85 | $107.24 |
| 1M return | -29.61% | -15.76% |
| 6M return | +123.80% | +98.74% |
| 1Y return | +124.90% | +285.06% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $22.49K (+124.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $38.51K (+285.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $23.68K (+136.8%) started 2021-11-17 | $103.12K (+931.2%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $23.68K (+136.8%) started 2021-11-17 | $110.06K (+1000.6%) started 2020-11-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $3.67B | $67.01B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | -190.42 | -6103.59 |
| Price/Sales | 10.97 | 98.60 |
| EV/Revenue | 15.07 | 87.28 |
| Analyst target | $40.78 | $106.92 |
| Target upside | +78.46% | -0.30% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 198.70% | 63.50% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | -9.61% | -31.64% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -32.69% | -26.87% |
| ROIC proxy | -30.29% | -13.55% |
| Return on equity | -30.29% | -13.55% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.69 | 2.50 |
| Debt/equity | 62.25 | 6.12 |
| Current ratio | 1.22 | 4.47 |
| Quick ratio | 0.91 | 3.87 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
LUNR max drawdown50.28%
RKLB max drawdown43.01%
LUNR max wkly drop33.01%
RKLB max wkly drop23.65%
5Y risk snapshot
LUNR max drawdown97.43%
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
LUNR max wkly drop76.48%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
10Y risk snapshot
LUNR max drawdown97.43%
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
LUNR max wkly drop76.48%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +124.90% | +285.06% |
| CAGR | +125.03% | +285.42% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.23 | 1.87 | |
| Max drawdown | 50.28% | 43.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.93% | 14.70% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.01% | 23.65% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +136.79% | +931.15% |
| CAGR | +20.69% | +59.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdown | 97.43% | 82.96% | |
| Max daily drop | 75.24% | 17.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 76.48% | 26.89% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +136.79% | +1000.57% |
| CAGR | +20.69% | +53.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdown | 97.43% | 82.96% | |
| Max daily drop | 75.24% | 17.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 76.48% | 26.89% |
Business comparison
| Category | LUNR | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Intuitive Machines, Inc. | Rocket Lab USA, Inc. |
| Sector | Space Technology | Space Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Intuitive Machines is a space exploration and commercial lunar services company providing landers, lunar surface delivery, data relay satellites, and lunar infrastructure services under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. In February 2024, Intuitive Machines' IM-1 Nova-C lander became the first US commercial spacecraft to successfully soft-land on the Moon — achieving a historic milestone in commercial space exploration. Intuitive Machines has secured NASA contracts worth hundreds of millions for additional lunar surface missions and lunar communication relay infrastructure (Near Space Network). | Rocket Lab is a small satellite launch company and space systems manufacturer providing launches on its Electron rocket and spacecraft components through its Space Systems division. Electron is the world's most frequently launched small rocket, providing dedicated small satellite launch services. Rocket Lab is developing Neutron — a medium-lift reusable rocket to compete with SpaceX Falcon 9 in the medium-payload segment. Space Systems (solar panels, reaction wheels, avionics) serves defense and commercial satellite manufacturers. Rocket Lab has $300M+ annual revenue with a path to profitability. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Intuitive Machines' CLPS contract backlog, IM-2 and future lunar mission execution, NASA lunar communication relay contract expansion, and the company's ability to achieve cost-efficient recurring lunar surface delivery. | Investors focus on Rocket Lab's Electron launch cadence, Space Systems revenue growth, Neutron development milestones, and the path to operating profitability as Space Systems scales. |
LUNR strengths
- →First commercial lunar landing success: IM-1's 2024 Moon landing validated Intuitive Machines' technical capability and NASA's commercial lunar services strategy — establishing LUNR as the US commercial lunar services leader
- →NASA CLPS and lunar relay contract backlog: Intuitive Machines has hundreds of millions in contracted NASA work for lunar surface delivery and the Near Space Network lunar communication relay — providing visibility into multi-year revenue
- →First-mover in commercial lunar economy: LUNR has a significant head start on commercial lunar infrastructure with no direct publicly traded competitor in lunar landing services
RKLB strengths
- →World's most frequently launched small rocket: Electron has demonstrated operational reliability with 50+ launches — a proven commercial small satellite launch vehicle with repeat customers
- →Space Systems diversification: Rocket Lab's spacecraft components and satellite manufacturing business provides revenue independent of launch market cycles — reducing launch-only business model risk
- →Neutron development for medium lift: Neutron addresses the higher-margin medium-lift market that SpaceX's Falcon 9 dominates — successful Neutron development would dramatically expand Rocket Lab's TAM and competitive positioning
Risks to watch — LUNR
- →Lunar missions are inherently high-risk: each IM-1 mission has significant technical risk — launch failures, landing failures, or surface mission failures could be catastrophic for the stock and company credibility
- →Government contract concentration: virtually all Intuitive Machines revenue is NASA-dependent — changes in NASA's commercial lunar program priorities or budget allocations create revenue risk
- →Small revenue base with significant execution risk: LUNR has early-stage revenue relative to its market cap — valuation is based on future moon economy potential rather than current financial performance
Risks to watch — RKLB
- →SpaceX Falcon 9 reusability economics: SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 provides launches at costs that challenge Rocket Lab's Electron economics for customers who need frequent launches vs dedicated small payloads
- →Neutron development timeline and cost risk: Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket has faced development delays and is a capital-intensive program — successful development is critical to RKLB's long-term competitive positioning vs SpaceX
- →Path to profitability extends longer than expected: Rocket Lab remains unprofitable — Neutron development costs require significant capital while investors await the Space Systems profitability inflection
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