LIVE
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) · Aerospace & Defense
$138.69
-13.83% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation · Aerospace & Defense
$520.68
-3.64% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SPCX
1
LMT
1
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
SPCX N/A
LMT 41.9
1Y Return
SPCX N/A
LMT +11.37%
Fwd P/E
SPCX 159.99
LMT ✓16.31
Target Up.
SPCX ✓+74.67%
LMT +17.68%
Op. Margin
SPCX N/A
LMT 11.00%
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
SPCX vs LMT: SpaceX vs Lockheed Martin Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is disrupting Lockheed's United Launch Alliance joint venture through lower-cost reusable rockets while building a completely separate satellite broadband business. Lockheed is the established defense prime contractor with the F-35, hypersonic programs, and space systems as its main revenue streams. SpaceX offers commercial space growth; Lockheed offers defense backlog and dividend income.
SPCX vs LMT is a disruptor vs incumbent story in launch services alongside very different core businesses — SpaceX wins if commercial space and Starlink grow into the valuation; Lockheed wins if F-35 internationalization, hypersonics, and defense spending remain strong.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
SPCX and LMT are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+74.67%) than for LMT (+17.68%).
Normalized 1Y performance
SPCX
LMT
Recent returns
SPCX
LMT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SPCX · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$62.00
analyst high$800.00
analyst mean$242.22
current price$138.69
+74.7% upside to analyst mean
LMT · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$408.00
analyst high$670.00
analyst mean$615.74
current price$520.68
+17.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPCX may suit investors who:
- →want disruption exposure to commercial space and satellite broadband at premium valuation
- →believe Starship's economics will revolutionize both launch and point-to-point cargo
- →prefer growth potential over defense contractor stability and dividends
- →are comfortable with post-IPO price discovery and long investment horizons
LMT may suit investors who:
- →want established defense prime contractor revenue with multi-decade program visibility
- →value F-35 production and international sales as a durable revenue anchor
- →prefer dividend income and buybacks from a profitable, cash-generative defense company
- →want defense exposure to NATO rearmament, hypersonics, and missile defense without startup risk
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | N/A | 41.9 |
| AI rank | N/A | #973 |
| Latest close | $138.69 | $520.68 |
| 1M return | -13.83% | -3.64% |
| 6M return | N/A | -4.10% |
| 1Y return | N/A | +11.37% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $10.99K (+9.9%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $17K (+70.0%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $8.62K (-13.8%) started 2026-06-12 | $33.22K (+232.2%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.83T | $120.64B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 25.31 |
| Forward P/E | 159.99 | 16.31 |
| Price/Sales | 94.65 | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenue | 42.52 | 1.86 |
| Analyst target | $242.22 | $615.74 |
| Target upside | +74.67% | +17.68% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.40% | 0.30% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -11.50% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -11.50% |
| FCF margin | N/A | +5.31% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 11.00% |
| Profit margin | -45.00% | 6.38% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 67.64% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 67.64% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 2.66% |
| Beta | 5.79 | 0.11 |
| Debt/equity | 73.60 | 276.37 |
| Current ratio | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 1.09 | 0.91 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
LMT max drawdown27.35%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
LMT max wkly drop13.30%
5Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
LMT max drawdown32.26%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
LMT max wkly drop13.30%
10Y risk snapshot
SPCX max drawdown34.39%
LMT max drawdown36.67%
SPCX max wkly drop26.89%
LMT max wkly drop19.06%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -13.83% | +9.95% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +9.99% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.32 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 27.35% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 10.81% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -13.83% | +52.91% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +8.87% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.29 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 32.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -13.83% | +156.25% |
| CAGR | -81.71% | +9.87% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.39% | 36.67% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.43% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.89% | 19.06% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Dominant commercial orbital launch provider via Falcon 9, developer of the Starship megarocket, and operator of the Starlink LEO satellite broadband constellation. SpaceX also holds significant NASA and DoD contracts. | Largest US defense contractor, producing F-35 fighter jets, hypersonic missiles, satellite systems, C2BMC missile defense, and next-generation aircraft through its Skunk Works division. Also a 50% owner of United Launch Alliance (ULA). |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber and revenue growth, Starship commercialization timeline, launch market share retention, and government payload contract wins. | F-35 production ramp and international sales, hypersonic program development and contracts, missile and air defense backlog, space systems revenue, and capital returns. |
SPCX strengths
- →Falcon 9 reusability gives SpaceX launch costs 5-10x lower than legacy rockets from ULA (Lockheed/Boeing JV)
- →Starlink's 7,000+ satellite network generates subscription broadband revenue independent of launch cadence
- →Starship's payload capacity, if operational, would dwarf all existing rockets and open new markets
LMT strengths
- →F-35 program is a decades-long revenue stream across US and allied air forces with high switching costs and maintenance contracts
- →Record defense backlog driven by NATO rearmament, hypersonic development, and missile defense programs
- →Skunk Works advanced development capability positions LMT for next-generation air dominance programs (NGAD)
Risks to watch — SPCX
- →Lockheed and ULA are challenging SpaceX for national security space launch contracts
- →Starship regulatory approval from FAA could remain slow, delaying revenue
- →High post-IPO valuation requires decades of compounding growth to justify
Risks to watch — LMT
- →ULA is being directly challenged by SpaceX in national security space launch — ULA's Vulcan rocket faces stiff cost competition
- →F-35 program cost and schedule overruns risk congressional scrutiny
- →Defense budget uncertainty if political pressure leads to procurement reductions
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