LIVE
XPO
XPO, Inc. · Industrials
$199.50
-1.38% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. · Industrials
$221.04
+8.11% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
XPO
4
ODFL
0
Comparison scoreboard
XPO LEADS 4/5AI Score
XPO ✓69.8
ODFL 56.9
1Y Return
XPO ✓+65.40%
ODFL +41.09%
Fwd P/E
XPO ✓33.24
ODFL 38.89
Target Up.
XPO ✓+12.92%
ODFL -9.74%
Op. Margin
XPO N/A
ODFL 23.78%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
XPO vs ODFL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
XPO and Old Dominion are both major LTL freight carriers competing for business freight shipments that are too large for UPS/FedEx but too small to fill an entire truck. Old Dominion is the clear quality and efficiency leader — the benchmark carrier with the best operating ratio, service metrics, and customer loyalty in the industry. XPO is investing to improve its LTL quality but starts from a significantly lower service and efficiency baseline.
XPO vs ODFL is the LTL carrier in service quality catch-up mode investing in network and technology after portfolio simplification (XPO) versus the premier LTL carrier with industry-best operating ratio, service quality, and customer loyalty commanding premium pricing (Old Dominion) — challenger investment vs the clear quality leader in US trucking.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
XPO holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XPO leads on both 1-year return (+65.40%) and forward P/E (33.24x vs 38.89x for ODFL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for XPO (+12.92%) than for ODFL (-9.74%).
Normalized 1Y performance
XPO
ODFL
Recent returns
XPO
ODFL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
XPO · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$105.00
analyst high$275.00
analyst mean$225.27
current price$199.50
+12.9% upside to analyst mean
ODFL · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$134.00
analyst mean$221.82
current price$221.04
-9.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
XPO may suit investors who:
- →prefer the LTL carrier turnaround/improvement story if XPO's network investment and service quality focus can close the gap with ODFL over time
- →value XPO's European LTL business as geographic diversification unavailable from US-only carriers like ODFL or Saia
- →want LTL trucking exposure at lower valuation multiples than ODFL reflecting XPO's current quality discount
- →are comfortable with higher operating ratio (worse efficiency), service quality gap to ODFL, and the multi-year investment timeline required for XPO to match industry leaders
ODFL may suit investors who:
- →prefer the highest-quality LTL carrier with industry-best operating ratio and service metrics commanding premium customer pricing and loyalty
- →value Old Dominion's conservative organic growth culture — opening new service centers and maintaining quality rather than risky acquisitions
- →want long-term freight infrastructure compounding from the premium market-position carrier that customers prefer regardless of economic cycle
- →are comfortable with premium valuation requiring continued exceptional execution and LTL volume cyclicality during economic slowdowns
Performance & AI score
| Metric | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 69.8 | 56.9 |
| AI rank | #38 | #224 |
| Latest close | $199.50 | $221.04 |
| 1M return | -1.38% | +8.11% |
| 6M return | +37.49% | +41.94% |
| 1Y return | +65.40% | +41.09% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.54K (+65.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $14.17K (+41.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $41.35K (+313.5%) started 2021-06-18 | $18.18K (+81.8%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $204.84K (+1948.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $115.63K (+1056.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $23.42B | $51.11B |
| Trailing P/E | 68.56 | 51.30 |
| Forward P/E | 33.24 | 38.89 |
| Price/Sales | 2.82 | 5.91 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.50 | 9.32 |
| Analyst target | $225.27 | $221.82 |
| Target upside | +12.92% | -9.74% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.30% | -2.90% |
| Earnings growth | 46.60% | -4.20% |
| EPS growth | +46.60% | -4.20% |
| FCF margin | +3.90% | +15.80% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 23.78% |
| Profit margin | 4.19% | 18.46% |
| ROIC proxy | 19.94% | 23.33% |
| Return on equity | 19.94% | 23.33% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.47% |
| Beta | 1.64 | 1.18 |
| Debt/equity | 221.07 | 0.91 |
| Current ratio | 0.99 | 1.56 |
| Quick ratio | 0.83 | 1.44 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown15.63%
ODFL max drawdown26.20%
XPO max wkly drop14.11%
ODFL max wkly drop16.35%
5Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown53.17%
ODFL max drawdown45.37%
XPO max wkly drop18.64%
ODFL max wkly drop17.13%
10Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown64.48%
ODFL max drawdown45.37%
XPO max wkly drop37.52%
ODFL max wkly drop17.13%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +65.40% | +41.67% |
| CAGR | +65.45% | +41.74% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.26 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdown | 15.63% | 26.20% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.07% | 9.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.11% | 16.35% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +313.53% | +78.80% |
| CAGR | +32.84% | +12.34% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.17% | 45.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.96% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.64% | 17.13% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1948.41% | +1017.11% |
| CAGR | +35.28% | +27.31% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.78 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 64.48% | 45.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.17% | 12.97% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.52% | 17.13% |
Business comparison
| Category | XPO | ODFL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | XPO, Inc. | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Trucking |
| Core business | XPO is a large less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier and logistics company. XPO has simplified through divestitures (spinning off GXO Logistics and RXO brokerage), focusing on its core LTL trucking network. XPO's North American LTL network provides freight transportation for shipments too large for parcel carriers but too small to fill an entire truck. XPO has been investing significantly in service quality improvement, hub expansion, and technology to compete with ODFL and Saia. | Old Dominion Freight Line is the premier LTL freight carrier in the United States, consistently achieving the best service metrics (on-time delivery, claims ratio) and lowest operating ratios in the industry. ODFL's network covers 99%+ of US zip codes with same-day and next-day service to most major markets. ODFL is the benchmark against which other LTL carriers are measured — its service quality is the standard that XPO, Saia, and others aspire to achieve. ODFL's consistency and reliability drive premium pricing that customers pay voluntarily. |
| Investor focus | Investors track LTL revenue, operating ratio improvement (the key profitability metric), yield (revenue per shipment), and whether XPO can close the service quality gap with Old Dominion. | Investors track ODFL's operating ratio (best in industry), revenue per hundredweight (pricing power), shipment volume growth, and organic network expansion through new service center openings. |
XPO strengths
- →Large national LTL network with significant infrastructure investment underway — XPO's hub expansion and technology investment positions it for long-term competitive improvement
- →European LTL operation provides geographic diversification — XPO's European freight network is an additional growth vector absent from purely domestic US LTL carriers
- →Capital allocation focus on LTL after divesting logistics and brokerage creates cleaner, purer LTL investment thesis
ODFL strengths
- →Best operating ratio in the LTL industry — ODFL's cost efficiency and service quality are both industry-leading, a combination that creates pricing power and customer loyalty
- →99%+ US zip code coverage with industry-leading on-time delivery rates — ODFL customers pay premium prices because ODFL reliably delivers on time with minimal damage claims
- →Conservative culture of organic network expansion over acquisition — ODFL has built its network through opening new service centers rather than acquiring competitors, maintaining culture and quality
Risks to watch — XPO
- →XPO's operating ratio is materially higher than ODFL — service quality and efficiency gap requires continued investment and time to close
- →LTL freight volume is cyclical — economic slowdowns reduce business-to-business freight shipment volumes
- →Old Dominion has a 20+ year head start on building a best-in-class LTL network — XPO's catch-up requires sustained capital investment and culture change
Risks to watch — ODFL
- →LTL freight volume is cyclical — economic slowdowns reduce business shipments across all LTL carriers including ODFL
- →XPO, Saia, and FedEx Freight are all investing to improve service quality — the service gap may narrow over time
- →ODFL's premium valuation (often 25–30x earnings) requires sustained excellent execution — any service quality stumble could quickly reprice the stock
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