LIVE
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc. · Diversified Industrial Manufacturing
$264.09
+6.76% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
DOV
Dover Corporation · Diversified Industrial Manufacturing
$223.57
+7.72% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ITW
1
DOV
4
Comparison scoreboard
DOV LEADS 4/5AI Score
ITW 49.9
DOV ✓52.3
1Y Return
ITW +9.50%
DOV ✓+26.97%
Fwd P/E
ITW 21.15
DOV ✓18.80
Target Up.
ITW +6.65%
DOV ✓+15.37%
Op. Margin
ITW ✓25.67%
DOV 16.40%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ITW vs DOV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ITW and DOV are both Dividend Kings in diversified industrial manufacturing — both with exceptional long-term track records of dividend growth and quality business characteristics. ITW's 80/20 simplification model drives industry-leading margins (25%+) with disciplined focus on profitable customers. Dover is more acquisitive with broader end-market diversification including fuel dispensing. ITW is the higher-margin, more systematic compounder; Dover offers more segment diversification and growth from acquisitions.
ITW vs DOV — Illinois Tool Works (the 80/20 simplification master with 25%+ operating margins across 7 industrial segments, decentralized execution, and Dividend Aristocrat consistency) versus Dover Corporation (the diversified Dividend King with 5 segments including Gilbarco Veeder-Root fuel dispensing leadership, heat exchanger growth, and 68+ years of consecutive dividend increases through acquisitive growth).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
DOV holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DOV leads on both 1-year return (+26.97%) and forward P/E (18.80x vs 21.15x for ITW), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DOV is growing revenue faster (10.10%), while ITW maintains the higher operating margin (25.67%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DOV (+15.37%) than for ITW (+6.65%).
Normalized 1Y performance
ITW
DOV
Recent returns
ITW
DOV
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ITW
Price target range
analyst mean$274.54
current price$264.09
+6.6% upside to analyst mean
DOV
Price target range
analyst mean$250.85
current price$223.57
+15.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ITW may suit investors who:
- →value ITW's 80/20 simplification discipline as a differentiating management philosophy creating industry-leading margins (25%+) through systematic customer and product focus
- →prefer highly predictable FCF conversion (90%+) supporting dividend growth and buybacks simultaneously without sacrificing capital allocation clarity
- →want the most efficient industrial business model — ITW's focus on 20% of customers generating 80% of revenue creates lean, high-margin units that outperform generalist peers
- →are comfortable with automotive OEM cyclicality, slower revenue growth vs more acquisitive peers, and premium valuation requiring consistent 25%+ margin maintenance
DOV may suit investors who:
- →value Dover's fuel dispensing leadership (Gilbarco Veeder-Root) as critical infrastructure for both petroleum and EV charging fueling networks — an infrastructure business with long replacement cycles
- →see Dover's 68+ year Dividend King record as demonstrating exceptional management discipline through multiple recessions and industrial cycles
- →prefer more acquisitive growth — Dover's approach of acquiring niche industrial businesses provides potential for above-organic revenue growth vs ITW's primarily organic model
- →are comfortable with acquisition integration risk, more variable revenue growth across diverse segments, and Gilbarco's evolution as EV adoption gradually changes the fuel dispensing landscape
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 49.9 | 52.3 |
| AI rank | #480 | #335 |
| Latest close | $264.09 | $223.57 |
| 1M return | +6.76% | +7.72% |
| 6M return | +4.63% | +13.98% |
| 1Y return | +9.50% | +26.97% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.94K (+9.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $12.72K (+27.2%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $14.29K (+42.9%) started 2021-06-21 | $16.85K (+68.5%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $38.54K (+285.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $52.95K (+429.5%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $74.06B | $29.28B |
| Trailing P/E | 23.92 | 27.18 |
| Forward P/E | 21.15 | 18.80 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 5.08 | 3.73 |
| Analyst target | $274.54 | $250.85 |
| Target upside | +6.65% | +15.37% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 4.60% | 10.10% |
| Earnings growth | 11.80% | 5.30% |
| EPS growth | +11.80% | +5.30% |
| FCF margin | +13.66% | +10.15% |
| Operating margin | 25.67% | 16.40% |
| Profit margin | 19.32% | 13.30% |
| ROIC proxy | 96.85% | 15.00% |
| Return on equity | 96.85% | 15.00% |
| Dividend yield | 2.50% | 0.96% |
| Beta | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Debt/equity | 283.22 | 43.93 |
| Current ratio | 1.19 | 1.86 |
| Quick ratio | 0.79 | 1.25 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdown17.95%
DOV max drawdown15.58%
ITW max wkly drop6.71%
DOV max wkly drop7.57%
5Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdown28.05%
DOV max drawdown35.56%
ITW max wkly drop12.18%
DOV max wkly drop14.35%
10Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdown37.85%
DOV max drawdown45.24%
ITW max wkly drop20.86%
DOV max wkly drop27.13%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +9.44% | +27.25% |
| CAGR | +9.45% | +27.29% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.93 | |
| Max drawdown | 17.95% | 15.58% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.54% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly drop | 6.71% | 7.57% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +29.78% | +60.41% |
| CAGR | +5.36% | +9.93% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.05% | 35.56% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.79% | 9.10% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.18% | 14.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +205.37% | +351.06% |
| CAGR | +11.82% | +16.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdown | 37.85% | 45.24% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.51% | 16.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.86% | 27.13% |
Business comparison
| Category | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | Dover Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a diversified manufacturer with 7 segments: Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Test & Measurement, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products. ITW's 80/20 simplification strategy focuses each business on its most profitable 20% of customers and products that generate 80% of revenue — systematically pruning complexity to expand margins. ITW's decentralized structure gives individual business units entrepreneurial autonomy while following the 80/20 discipline. ITW is a Dividend Aristocrat with 50+ consecutive years of dividend increases. | Dover Corporation is a diversified manufacturer with 5 segments: Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling (fuel dispensing equipment), Imaging & Identification (marking systems, product decoration), Pumps & Process Solutions, and Climate & Sustainability Technologies. Dover serves varied industrial end markets including fuel dispensing (Gilbarco Veeder-Root), industrial refrigeration, heat exchangers, and inkjet printing systems for product coding/marking. Dover has been more acquisitive than ITW — regularly acquiring niche businesses in its five segments to supplement organic growth. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on ITW's organic revenue growth, operating margin performance (25%+ margins), free cash flow conversion, and 80/20 simplification benefits across its 7 business segments. | Investors focus on Dover's organic revenue growth across segments, Clean Energy fueling equipment and heat exchanger growth, Climate & Sustainability margins, and acquisition integration execution. |
ITW strengths
- →80/20 simplification model driving exceptional margins: ITW's 80/20 system systematically identifies and focuses on high-margin customers and products — generating 25%+ operating margins vs typical industrial averages of 10-15%
- →Decentralized business model with 80+ business units: ITW's structure empowers individual units to focus on their specific markets and customer relationships — creating entrepreneurial execution throughout a large conglomerate
- →Dividend Aristocrat with exceptional FCF: ITW converts 90%+ of net income to free cash flow — funding consistent dividend growth and substantial buybacks simultaneously
DOV strengths
- →Diversification across 5 segments serving different industrial cycles: Dover's segment diversity (fuel dispensing, heat exchangers, inkjet printing, pumps) reduces single-market cyclicality
- →Fuel dispensing and clean energy infrastructure: Gilbarco Veeder-Root is the leading US fuel dispenser manufacturer — providing fueling infrastructure for both traditional petroleum and EV charging equipment
- →Dividend King with 68+ consecutive years: Dover is one of the few Dividend Kings in industrial manufacturing with 68+ consecutive annual dividend increases
Risks to watch — ITW
- →Automotive OEM exposure cyclicality: ITW's Automotive segment serves auto OEMs (car body hardware, electrical components) — automotive production cycles create revenue variability in this segment
- →Organic growth moderation in mature industrial markets: ITW's 80/20 strategy has optimized for margin but also occasionally trades revenue growth for profitability — portfolio simplification can result in slower top-line growth vs more acquisitive peers
- →High valuation for an industrial company: ITW trades at 25-30x earnings — expensive for a company with 4-6% organic growth, requiring consistent execution to justify vs lower-multiple peers
Risks to watch — DOV
- →Revenue growth can be more variable than ITW's systematic approach: Dover's segment mix creates different growth cycles vs ITW's more systematic 80/20 disciplined approach across units
- →Acquisition integration risk: Dover's more acquisitive growth strategy creates integration execution risk vs ITW's organic and 80/20 focus
- →Fuel dispensing evolution: Gilbarco's fuel dispenser business must evolve as EV adoption gradually reduces traditional petroleum fueling volumes — the pace of EV transition affects Dover's largest revenue segment
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