LIVE
XPO
XPO, Inc. · Industrials - Trucking & LTL Freight
$199.50
-1.38% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
SAIA
Saia, Inc. · Industrials - Trucking & LTL Freight
$435.12
-3.08% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
XPO
2
SAIA
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
XPO ✓69.8
SAIA 60.8
1Y Return
XPO +65.40%
SAIA ✓+67.05%
Fwd P/E
XPO 33.24
SAIA ✓30.22
Target Up.
XPO ✓+12.92%
SAIA +4.10%
Op. Margin
XPO N/A
SAIA N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
XPO vs SAIA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Both XPO and SAIA are national LTL freight carriers that have benefited from Yellow Freight's 2023 bankruptcy, gaining service centers and freight volumes. XPO is larger with a more established national network, while Saia is aggressively expanding its footprint and has a strong track record of operational excellence.
XPO vs SAIA compares two leading LTL freight carriers competing for market share following the industry-reshaping bankruptcy of Yellow Freight.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
XPO and SAIA are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. SAIA leads on both 1-year return (+67.05%) and forward P/E (30.22x vs 33.24x for XPO), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for XPO (+12.92%) than for SAIA (+4.10%).
Normalized 1Y performance
XPO
SAIA
Recent returns
XPO
SAIA
Analyst price targets & sentiment
XPO · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$105.00
analyst high$275.00
analyst mean$225.27
current price$199.50
+12.9% upside to analyst mean
SAIA · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$265.00
analyst high$550.00
analyst mean$452.95
current price$435.12
+4.1% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
XPO may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to one of the largest national LTL freight networks
- →Believe XPO's service improvements and yield management will drive operating ratio expansion
- →See value in XPO's scale and density advantages following Yellow's exit
SAIA may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to a high-quality, rapidly growing LTL carrier
- →Believe Saia's national network expansion will drive long-term market share gains
- →Are comfortable paying a growth premium for a track record of strong operational execution
Performance & AI score
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 69.8 | 60.8 |
| AI rank | #38 | #145 |
| Latest close | $199.50 | $435.12 |
| 1M return | -1.38% | -3.08% |
| 6M return | +37.49% | +32.66% |
| 1Y return | +65.40% | +67.05% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.54K (+65.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $16.7K (+67.0%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $41.35K (+313.5%) started 2021-06-18 | $21.49K (+114.9%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $204.84K (+1948.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $162.91K (+1529.1%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $23.42B | $11.58B |
| Trailing P/E | 68.56 | 45.80 |
| Forward P/E | 33.24 | 30.22 |
| Price/Sales | 2.82 | 3.56 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.50 | 3.81 |
| Analyst target | $225.27 | $452.95 |
| Target upside | +12.92% | +4.10% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.30% | 2.40% |
| Earnings growth | 46.60% | 0.00% |
| EPS growth | +46.60% | 0.00% |
| FCF margin | +3.90% | +1.06% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 4.19% | 7.84% |
| ROIC proxy | 19.94% | 10.23% |
| Return on equity | 19.94% | 10.23% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| Debt/equity | 221.07 | 9.97 |
| Current ratio | 0.99 | 1.52 |
| Quick ratio | 0.83 | 1.29 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown15.63%
SAIA max drawdown24.92%
XPO max wkly drop14.11%
SAIA max wkly drop20.39%
5Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown53.17%
SAIA max drawdown60.94%
XPO max wkly drop18.64%
SAIA max wkly drop32.20%
10Y risk snapshot
XPO max drawdown64.48%
SAIA max drawdown60.94%
XPO max wkly drop37.52%
SAIA max wkly drop32.20%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +65.40% | +67.05% |
| CAGR | +65.45% | +67.10% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.26 | 1.21 | |
| Max drawdown | 15.63% | 24.92% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.07% | 9.29% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.11% | 20.39% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +313.53% | +114.87% |
| CAGR | +32.84% | +16.53% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.17% | 60.94% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.96% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.64% | 32.20% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1948.41% | +1529.05% |
| CAGR | +35.28% | +32.21% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.78 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdown | 64.48% | 60.94% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.17% | 30.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.52% | 32.20% |
Business comparison
| Category | XPO | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | XPO, Inc. | Saia, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials - Trucking & LTL Freight | Industrials - Trucking & LTL Freight |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | XPO is one of the largest less-than-truckload freight carriers in North America, operating a dense service center network to move partial truckloads for commercial customers, with a focus on premium service and yield improvement. | Saia is a national less-than-truckload freight carrier that has been aggressively expanding its service center network and national footprint, with a strong track record of improving operating ratio and service quality metrics. |
| Investor focus | Investors track XPO's shipment volume trends, revenue per shipment (yield), operating ratio improvement, and its ability to capture service center capacity following Yellow Freight's bankruptcy. | Investors track Saia's service center opening pace and network expansion progress, shipment volume and yield trends, and operating ratio improvement as its national network matures. |
XPO strengths
- →One of the largest LTL networks in North America with strong national coverage
- →Benefited significantly from Yellow Freight's bankruptcy by capturing service centers and freight volumes
- →Focused on premium service and yield improvement as key margin drivers
SAIA strengths
- →Consistently strong operating ratio and service quality metrics relative to industry peers
- →Accelerating national network expansion by opening new service centers
- →Benefited from Yellow Freight's bankruptcy by capturing freight and experienced personnel
Risks to watch — XPO
- →LTL freight volumes are cyclically sensitive to broader industrial and manufacturing activity
- →Network expansion and integration of former Yellow facilities carries execution risk
- →Faces competition from other large LTL players including Old Dominion, Saia, and ABF Freight
Risks to watch — SAIA
- →LTL freight volumes are cyclically sensitive to broader economic conditions
- →Rapid service center expansion requires significant capital investment ahead of revenue
- →Shares often trade at a premium valuation reflecting growth expectations
Frequently asked questions
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