LIVE
WM
Waste Management, Inc. · Environmental Services / Waste Management
$214.60
-3.48% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
RSG
Republic Services, Inc. · Environmental Services / Waste Management
$204.94
-4.67% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
WM
4
RSG
1
Comparison scoreboard
WM LEADS 4/5AI Score
WM ✓50.1
RSG 49.9
1Y Return
WM ✓-8.41%
RSG -17.69%
Fwd P/E
WM ✓23.73
RSG 26.04
Target Up.
WM ✓+16.67%
RSG +16.04%
Op. Margin
WM 17.52%
RSG ✓20.20%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
WM vs RSG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
WM and RSG are the two largest US waste management companies operating essentially the same business model — integrated collection, transfer, and landfill disposal with geographic monopoly characteristics. Both have exceptional pricing power, consistent dividend growth, and recession-resistant demand. WM is somewhat larger with a more advanced renewable natural gas program. RSG has similar geographic penetration and comparable financial characteristics. The choice between them is often marginal — both are quality defensive long-term holdings.
WM vs RSG — Waste Management (the US waste management leader with 260+ landfills, renewable natural gas program, recycling automation investment, and local landfill monopoly pricing power creating consistent above-CPI rate increases) versus Republic Services (the second-largest US waste management company with identical integrated waste business model, 200+ landfills, Blue Planet sustainability program, and comparable pricing power).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
WM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WM leads on both 1-year return (-8.41%) and forward P/E (23.73x vs 26.04x for RSG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, WM is growing revenue faster (3.50%), while RSG maintains the higher operating margin (20.20%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +16.67% for WM and +16.04% for RSG.
Normalized 1Y performance
WM
RSG
Recent returns
WM
RSG
Analyst price targets & sentiment
WM · 21 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.2/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$191.00
analyst high$277.00
analyst mean$256.04
current price$214.60
+16.7% upside to analyst mean
RSG · 21 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$180.00
analyst high$290.00
analyst mean$243.58
current price$204.94
+16.0% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
WM may suit investors who:
- →see WM's renewable natural gas program as a differentiating sustainability revenue stream that provides upside beyond the base waste business
- →value WM's larger landfill network as providing slightly stronger geographic coverage and scale for technology investment in recycling automation
- →prefer the market leader in defensive waste management with the longest track record and broadest geographic footprint
- →are comfortable with recycling commodity price volatility, capital-intensive automation investment, and environmental regulation evolution
RSG may suit investors who:
- →see RSG's Blue Planet sustainability program as aligning with ESG investor mandates — potentially broadening institutional investor demand for RSG's shares
- →prefer RSG at a potential valuation discount to WM as the #2 player with comparable business model characteristics at a smaller market cap
- →value comparable dividend growth track record and pricing power to WM at potentially lower purchase price
- →are comfortable with slightly smaller RNG program vs WM and the market-follower rather than market-leader positioning in waste infrastructure
Performance & AI score
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| AI rank | #462 | #475 |
| Latest close | $214.60 | $204.94 |
| 1M return | -3.48% | -4.67% |
| 6M return | -2.35% | -4.56% |
| 1Y return | -8.41% | -17.69% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.2K (-8.0%) started 2025-06-18 | $8.25K (-17.5%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.34K (+73.4%) started 2021-06-21 | $21.04K (+110.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $47.94K (+379.4%) started 2016-06-20 | $57.04K (+470.4%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $88.13B | $64.58B |
| Trailing P/E | 31.76 | 30.12 |
| Forward P/E | 23.73 | 26.04 |
| Price/Sales | 4.15 | 4.89 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.36 | 4.71 |
| Analyst target | $256.04 | $243.58 |
| Target upside | +16.67% | +16.04% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 3.50% | 2.60% |
| Earnings growth | 13.30% | 7.50% |
| EPS growth | +13.30% | +7.50% |
| FCF margin | +8.41% | +10.83% |
| Operating margin | 17.52% | 20.20% |
| Profit margin | 10.99% | 12.99% |
| ROIC proxy | 29.94% | 18.35% |
| Return on equity | 29.94% | 18.35% |
| Dividend yield | 1.61% | 1.19% |
| Beta | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equity | 228.41 | 117.58 |
| Current ratio | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| Quick ratio | 0.80 | 0.60 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
WM max drawdown17.01%
RSG max drawdown21.14%
WM max wkly drop8.75%
RSG max wkly drop7.13%
5Y risk snapshot
WM max drawdown18.72%
RSG max drawdown23.38%
WM max wkly drop11.60%
RSG max wkly drop9.09%
10Y risk snapshot
WM max drawdown30.07%
RSG max drawdown34.02%
WM max wkly drop16.97%
RSG max wkly drop17.30%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -7.98% | -17.46% |
| CAGR | -7.99% | -17.48% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.58 | -1.18 | |
| Max drawdown | 17.01% | 21.14% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.46% | 5.82% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.75% | 7.13% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +63.32% | +99.29% |
| CAGR | +10.32% | +14.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.38 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.72% | 23.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.03% | 5.82% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.60% | 9.09% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +302.83% | +383.38% |
| CAGR | +14.96% | +17.08% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.58 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdown | 30.07% | 34.02% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.12% | 12.81% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.97% | 17.30% |
Business comparison
| Category | WM | RSG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Waste Management, Inc. | Republic Services, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Waste Management | Waste Management |
| Core business | Waste Management is the largest US waste collection and disposal company with 260+ landfills, 340+ transfer stations, and 100+ recycling facilities. WM's integrated waste system captures waste from collection (trucks) through transfer stations to landfills — one of the most defensible business models with geographic monopoly characteristics. WM generates landfill gas (methane from decomposing waste) and has been converting it to renewable natural gas (RNG) — sold to utilities and transportation customers. WM acquired Advanced Disposal Services in 2020 and is investing heavily in recycling automation. | Republic Services is the second-largest US waste collection and disposal company behind Waste Management. RSG operates 200+ landfills, 250+ transfer stations, and 80+ recycling facilities. RSG acquired US LBM Holdings' environmental services business. Republic Services competes directly with WM in most geographic markets — both companies operate the same integrated waste model (collection → transfer stations → landfills). RSG has been investing in recycling infrastructure and sustainability initiatives (Blue Planet sustainability program, renewable energy from landfill gas) similar to WM. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on WM's pricing power (annual rate increases), landfill pricing and volume, recycling profitability improvement, and renewable natural gas revenue from landfill gas extraction. | Investors focus on RSG's organic revenue growth, pricing above CPI, acquisition integration, recycling margin improvement, and sustainability-linked investor interest in the waste-to-resource narrative. |
WM strengths
- →Landfill monopoly economics: landfills are geographically irreplaceable with strict permitting — once built, a landfill has a local monopoly that pricing power can exploit without meaningful competitive threat
- →Annual pricing power: WM regularly increases service pricing 3-5% annually above CPI — essential service demand (trash must be collected) combined with local monopoly enables systematic above-inflation pricing
- →Renewable natural gas upside: WM's landfills produce billions of cubic feet of methane annually — converting this to RNG and selling to transportation or utility buyers provides growing, high-margin revenue from a waste byproduct
RSG strengths
- →Same landfill geographic monopoly economics as WM: RSG's 200+ landfills provide the same pricing power and competitive protection as WM — trash disposal requires physical landfill access that's locally irreplaceable
- →Consistent pricing above inflation track record: RSG has consistently achieved above-CPI price increases across its service areas — essential service demand enables systematic pricing power
- →Blue Planet sustainability program: RSG's sustainability commitment (recycling investment, renewable energy, carbon reduction) aligns with ESG investor mandates — potentially broadening the investor base for waste infrastructure investments
Risks to watch — WM
- →Recycling commodity price volatility: recycling revenue depends on commodity prices for paper, plastic, and metals — commodity price cycles create recycling financial variability
- →Capital-intensive automation investment required for recycling profitability: WM must invest significant capital in recycling facility automation (optical sorters, AI sorting) to improve recycling margins as material quality requirements tighten
- →Regulatory risk for landfill operations: EPA and state environmental regulations for landfill operations continue to evolve — potential stricter methane capture requirements or landfill closure regulations create compliance costs
Risks to watch — RSG
- →Slightly smaller scale vs WM creating competitive disadvantage in some markets: WM's larger landfill network and geographic coverage provides some competitive advantages in markets where both overlap
- →Recycling infrastructure investment required matching WM's automation pace: RSG must invest at comparable pace to WM in recycling automation or risk falling behind in recycling profitability improvement
- →Lower renewable natural gas profile vs WM: WM has more aggressively developed its RNG program from landfill gas — RSG's RNG contribution to earnings is currently more modest than WM's
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