LIVE
CSX
CSX Corporation · Industrials
$45.63
-0.98% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials
$256.88
-5.41% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CSX
1
UNP
4
Comparison scoreboard
UNP LEADS 4/5AI Score
CSX 49.3
UNP ✓50.6
1Y Return
CSX ✓+42.06%
UNP +16.45%
Fwd P/E
CSX 21.95
UNP ✓19.90
Target Up.
CSX -2.97%
UNP ✓+6.98%
Op. Margin
CSX 36.16%
UNP ✓40.36%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
CSX vs UNP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CSX and Union Pacific are the leading US railroad companies — CSX dominating the eastern network, Union Pacific dominating the western network. Both benefit from natural geographic monopolies on their specific routes. CSX's eastern seaport connectivity is strategically valuable; Union Pacific's Pacific Coast port gateway is essential for Asian import distribution. Both are exceptional long-term compounders with pricing power from freight-hauling infrastructure monopolies.
CSX vs UNP is the eastern US railroad network with seaport connectivity and PSR efficiency (CSX) versus the largest western railroad with Pacific Coast gateway and Mexican cross-border freight (Union Pacific) — eastern vs western US rail monopoly, both exceptional long-term infrastructure compounders with pricing power.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
UNP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+42.06% vs +16.45%), though UNP trades at the lower forward P/E (19.90x vs 21.95x). UNP leads on both revenue growth (3.20%) and operating margin (40.36%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UNP (+6.98%) than for CSX (-2.97%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CSX
UNP
Recent returns
CSX
UNP
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CSX
Price target range
analyst mean$46.16
current price$45.63
-3.0% upside to analyst mean
UNP · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$202.00
analyst mean$291.73
current price$256.88
+7.0% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CSX may suit investors who:
- →prefer eastern US railroad exposure with Atlantic seaport connectivity (Savannah, Baltimore, Norfolk) as US import volumes through East Coast ports grow
- →value CSX's PSR operating efficiency discipline sustaining operating ratio improvement over time
- →want east coast industrial and chemical corridor rail exposure serving key eastern US industrial markets from the Gulf Coast to New England
- →are comfortable with coal revenue secular decline, intermodal trucking competition in shorter hauls, and service reliability challenges during demand spikes
UNP may suit investors who:
- →prefer the largest western US railroad with Pacific Coast port gateway infrastructure essential for distributing Asian imports through the US interior
- →value Union Pacific's Mexico cross-border freight exposure as nearshoring manufacturing growth increases US-Mexico freight volumes
- →want the largest-scale US freight railroad compounding from western US population and freight volume growth trends
- →are comfortable with BNSF competition on some western routes, agricultural export volume cyclicality, and service quality management through PSR efficiency initiatives
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 49.3 | 50.6 |
| AI rank | #519 | #430 |
| Latest close | $45.63 | $256.88 |
| 1M return | -0.98% | -5.41% |
| 6M return | +25.01% | +8.51% |
| 1Y return | +42.06% | +16.45% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.15K (+41.5%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.57K (+15.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $15.79K (+57.9%) started 2021-06-21 | $14.02K (+40.2%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $65.25K (+552.5%) started 2016-06-20 | $43.61K (+336.1%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $88.39B | $161.91B |
| Trailing P/E | 29.18 | 22.43 |
| Forward P/E | 21.95 | 19.90 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 5.51 |
| EV/Revenue | 7.54 | 7.79 |
| Analyst target | $46.16 | $291.73 |
| Target upside | -2.97% | +6.98% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 1.70% | 3.20% |
| Earnings growth | 26.50% | 6.20% |
| EPS growth | +26.50% | +6.20% |
| FCF margin | +7.98% | +16.33% |
| Operating margin | 36.16% | 40.36% |
| Profit margin | 21.55% | 29.20% |
| ROIC proxy | 23.68% | 40.69% |
| Return on equity | 23.68% | 40.69% |
| Dividend yield | 1.18% | 2.02% |
| Beta | 1.22 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equity | 143.06 | 162.25 |
| Current ratio | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Quick ratio | 0.78 | 0.66 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CSX max drawdown12.24%
UNP max drawdown12.28%
CSX max wkly drop11.25%
UNP max wkly drop6.19%
5Y risk snapshot
CSX max drawdown29.44%
UNP max drawdown31.83%
CSX max wkly drop11.25%
UNP max wkly drop12.20%
10Y risk snapshot
CSX max drawdown40.55%
UNP max drawdown38.72%
CSX max wkly drop22.55%
UNP max wkly drop18.71%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +41.53% | +15.71% |
| CAGR | +41.60% | +15.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.47 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdown | 12.24% | 12.28% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.12% | 4.54% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.25% | 6.19% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +50.15% | +28.50% |
| CAGR | +8.48% | +5.15% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 29.44% | 31.83% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.71% | 6.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.25% | 12.20% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +473.10% | +253.45% |
| CAGR | +19.09% | +13.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.61 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdown | 40.55% | 38.72% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.55% | 13.03% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.55% | 18.71% |
Business comparison
| Category | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX Corporation | Union Pacific Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Railroads |
| Core business | CSX operates the largest rail network in the eastern United States, covering 21,000+ route miles from the Gulf Coast to New England and into Canada. CSX carries coal, intermodal containers, chemicals, merchandise, and automotive products. The eastern network's strength is connectivity to major eastern seaports (Savannah, Baltimore, Norfolk) and coal-producing regions. CSX's Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR) operating model has significantly improved margins and service consistency. | Union Pacific operates the largest rail network in the western United States, covering 32,000+ route miles from the Missouri River to Pacific Coast ports (LA/Long Beach, Seattle). Union Pacific's network is essential for moving goods between the Pacific Coast ports (where most Asian imports enter the US) and the US interior. UNP carries a diverse mix of agricultural products, chemicals, energy, industrial goods, and intermodal containers. UP's western network serves the fastest-growing US population and freight growth regions. |
| Investor focus | Investors track revenue per revenue ton mile (pricing power), operating ratio (expenses as % of revenue, where lower is better), volume by freight category, and coal revenue in context of energy transition. | Investors track carload volumes by segment, operating ratio, intermodal pricing and volume, and any service improvement or backslide under current leadership. |
CSX strengths
- →Eastern US rail monopoly on its specific route network — trucks are the primary alternative but at significantly higher cost for heavy long-haul freight
- →PSR operating discipline — operating ratio improvement has been sustained and CSX's efficiency metrics demonstrate consistent cost management
- →Eastern seaport connectivity creates competitive advantage for import and export freight, particularly as Savannah, GA has grown dramatically as a port
UNP strengths
- →Western US monopoly on its specific routes — UP's gateway from Pacific Coast ports to the US interior is irreplaceable rail infrastructure with no competitive alternative
- →Agricultural export connectivity — US grain, soybeans, and agricultural products flow through Union Pacific's network to Pacific export terminals
- →Mexico cross-border freight is growing — UP's network extends into Mexico through Ferromex partnership, capturing Mexico manufacturing growth for nearshoring supply chains
Risks to watch — CSX
- →Coal revenue is declining secularly as power plant coal demand falls with natural gas and renewables displacement
- →Intermodal competition from trucking in the shorter-haul markets where truck speed advantage matters more than rail cost advantage
- →Service reliability has been challenged at times — PSR implementations historically reduce spare capacity and can create service problems when demand spikes
Risks to watch — UNP
- →BNSF (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) is Union Pacific's primary competitor on some western US routes — rail duopoly in the west means some competitive pressure
- →Service reliability issues have periodically impacted UP's customer relationships — operating ratio focus must not sacrifice service quality
- →Agricultural export volumes are cyclical — export volumes depend on global commodity prices and competition from South American agriculture
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