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CTO
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. · Real Estate - Retail REIT
$20.60
+1.25% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc. · Real Estate - Mall & Retail REIT
$211.33
+5.21% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CTO
1
SPG
2
Comparison scoreboard
SPG LEADS 2/5AI Score
CTO 33.7
SPG ✓39.0
1Y Return
CTO +23.74%
SPG ✓+34.49%
Fwd P/E
CTO N/A
SPG 32.66
Target Up.
CTO ✓+11.65%
SPG -2.05%
Op. Margin
CTO N/A
SPG 43.38%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
CTO vs SPG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG is the dominant, large-scale leader in premier mall and outlet real estate, while CTO is a much smaller, growth-focused REIT concentrated in open-air shopping centers in southern U.S. growth markets. The comparison highlights vastly different scales within the broader retail REIT sector.
CTO vs SPG contrasts a small-cap, opportunistic open-air shopping center REIT against the largest, most established mall and premium outlet operator in the U.S.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
SPG holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.49% vs +23.74% for CTO). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CTO (+11.65%) than for SPG (-2.05%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CTO
SPG
Recent returns
CTO
SPG
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CTO · 6 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$22.00
analyst high$24.00
analyst mean$23.00
current price$20.60
+11.7% upside to analyst mean
SPG · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.2/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$120.00
analyst mean$214.55
current price$211.33
-2.0% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CTO may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to smaller-scale, growth-market open-air retail real estate
- →See value in CTO's higher percentage growth potential from a smaller base
- →Are comfortable with higher volatility and lower trading liquidity
SPG may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- →Value Simon's scale, balance sheet strength, and capital access advantages
- →Prefer a larger, more established, more liquid retail REIT investment
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 33.7 | 39.0 |
| AI rank | #1856 | #1209 |
| Latest close | $20.60 | $211.33 |
| 1M return | +1.25% | +5.21% |
| 6M return | +18.51% | +14.72% |
| 1Y return | +23.74% | +34.49% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.47K (+34.7%) started 2025-06-18 | $13.45K (+34.5%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $29.92K (+199.2%) started 2021-06-18 | $25.45K (+154.5%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $53.78K (+437.8%) started 2016-06-20 | $28.62K (+186.2%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $695.94M | $83.23B |
| Trailing P/E | 103.00 | 15.22 |
| Forward P/E | N/A | 32.66 |
| Price/Sales | 4.49 | 10.20 |
| EV/Revenue | 8.69 | 15.19 |
| Analyst target | $23.00 | $214.55 |
| Target upside | +11.65% | -2.05% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.00% | 19.30% |
| Earnings growth | 1200.10% | 16.40% |
| EPS growth | +1200.10% | +16.40% |
| FCF margin | -13.82% | +37.52% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 43.38% |
| Profit margin | 9.06% | 70.59% |
| ROIC proxy | 2.40% | 113.59% |
| Return on equity | 2.40% | 113.59% |
| Dividend yield | 7.27% | 4.02% |
| Beta | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Debt/equity | 113.24 | 457.47 |
| Current ratio | 4.69 | 0.20 |
| Quick ratio | 1.25 | 0.20 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CTO max drawdown14.75%
SPG max drawdown12.55%
CTO max wkly drop7.20%
SPG max wkly drop6.70%
5Y risk snapshot
CTO max drawdown25.47%
SPG max drawdown45.84%
CTO max wkly drop12.91%
SPG max wkly drop15.68%
10Y risk snapshot
CTO max drawdown47.85%
SPG max drawdown77.00%
CTO max wkly drop29.13%
SPG max wkly drop55.74%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +23.74% | +34.52% |
| CAGR | +23.76% | +34.58% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdown | 14.75% | 12.55% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.78% | 3.55% | |
| Max wkly drop | 7.20% | 6.70% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +78.05% | +99.76% |
| CAGR | +12.23% | +14.87% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.43 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.47% | 45.84% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.78% | 10.11% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.91% | 15.68% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +172.59% | +61.14% |
| CAGR | +10.56% | +4.89% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.34 | 0.19 | |
| Max drawdown | 47.85% | 77.00% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.34% | 26.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 29.13% | 55.74% |
Business comparison
| Category | CTO | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Simon Property Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate - Retail REIT | Real Estate |
| Industry | N/A | REIT - Retail |
| Core business | CTO Realty Growth is a small-cap REIT that owns and operates open-air shopping centers and other retail and mixed-use properties across the southeastern and southwestern United States. | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. |
| Investor focus | Investors track CTO's acquisition pace and cap rates, occupancy and leasing spreads at its shopping centers, and its dividend coverage given its smaller, externally-focused growth strategy. | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. |
CTO strengths
- →Focused, opportunistic acquisition strategy targeting open-air retail centers in growth markets
- →Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based portfolio growth
- →Attractive dividend yield reflecting its small-cap retail REIT positioning
SPG strengths
- →Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- →Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- →Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
Risks to watch — CTO
- →Much smaller scale than larger retail REIT peers limits diversification and capital cost advantages
- →Open-air shopping center sector faces ongoing competitive and e-commerce pressures
- →Smaller market capitalization can mean lower trading liquidity and higher volatility
Risks to watch — SPG
- →Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- →More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- →Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
Frequently asked questions
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