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MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation · Energy - Oil Refining & Midstream
$307.03
+15.27% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
PSX
Phillips 66 · Energy - Oil Refining, Midstream & Chemicals
$206.19
+16.87% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
MPC
3
PSX
2
Comparison scoreboard
MPC LEADS 3/5AI Score
MPC ✓61.5
PSX 51.6
1Y Return
MPC ✓+85.48%
PSX +72.40%
Fwd P/E
MPC 11.40
PSX ✓11.15
Target Up.
MPC -3.98%
PSX ✓-2.93%
Op. Margin
MPC ✓3.56%
PSX 0.64%
Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026
Quick take
MPC vs PSX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is the largest pure-play U.S. independent refiner focused entirely on maximizing refining margin capture, while PSX (Phillips 66) is a diversified downstream energy company spanning refining, midstream, and chemicals. Marathon provides maximum exposure to refining cycles while Phillips 66 offers more diversified downstream earnings.
MPC vs PSX is the refining-pure-play versus diversified-downstream comparison — Marathon's concentrated refining margin leverage versus Phillips 66's smoothed earnings across refining, midstream pipelines, and chemicals.
Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026
MPC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MPC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+85.48% vs +72.40%), though PSX has the better forward P/E setup (11.15x vs 11.40x for MPC). MPC leads on both revenue growth (8.80%) and operating margin (3.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: -3.98% for MPC and -2.93% for PSX.
Normalized 1Y performance
MPC
PSX
Recent returns
MPC
PSX
Analyst price targets & sentiment
MPC · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$142.00
analyst mean$303.89
current price$307.03
-4.0% upside to analyst mean
PSX · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$110.00
analyst mean$205.47
current price$206.19
-2.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
MPC may suit investors who:
- →Want pure-play U.S. refining exposure as the largest independent refiner with maximum leverage to refining margin cycles
- →Value Marathon's aggressive capital return program funded by strong refining cash flows
- →Prefer the simplicity of a pure refiner business model versus the complexity of Phillips 66's diversified downstream structure
PSX may suit investors who:
- →Want diversified downstream energy exposure across refining, midstream, and chemicals with fee-based midstream providing more stable earnings
- →Value CPChem's world-scale petrochemical operations as an additional earnings source beyond pure refining margin cycles
- →Prefer more diversified downstream exposure that reduces peak refining cycle upside but also limits downside in poor refining margin environments
Performance & AI score
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 61.5 | 51.6 |
| AI rank | #159 | #382 |
| Latest close | $307.03 | $206.19 |
| 1M return | +15.27% | +16.87% |
| 6M return | +73.55% | +44.96% |
| 1Y return | +85.48% | +72.40% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.28K (+82.8%) started 2025-08-04 | $16.98K (+69.8%) started 2025-08-04 |
| 5Y ago | $65.85K (+558.5%) started 2021-08-05 | $38.84K (+288.4%) started 2021-08-05 |
| 10Y ago | $133.71K (+1237.1%) started 2016-08-05 | $55.67K (+456.7%) started 2016-08-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $92.39B | $84.87B |
| Trailing P/E | 20.83 | 20.92 |
| Forward P/E | 11.40 | 11.15 |
| Price/Sales | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.96 | 0.80 |
| Analyst target | $303.89 | $205.47 |
| Target upside | -3.98% | -2.93% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.80% | 6.90% |
| Earnings growth | 350.70% | -56.80% |
| EPS growth | +350.70% | -56.80% |
| FCF margin | +2.59% | -0.84% |
| Operating margin | 3.56% | 0.64% |
| Profit margin | 3.41% | 3.07% |
| ROIC proxy | 27.46% | 14.55% |
| Return on equity | 27.46% | 14.55% |
| Dividend yield | 1.26% | 2.40% |
| Beta | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| Debt/equity | 146.52 | 91.39 |
| Current ratio | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| Quick ratio | 0.69 | 0.70 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
MPC max drawdown18.74%
PSX max drawdown17.28%
MPC max wkly drop11.18%
PSX max wkly drop9.97%
5Y risk snapshot
MPC max drawdown44.75%
PSX max drawdown44.37%
MPC max wkly drop19.43%
PSX max wkly drop25.32%
10Y risk snapshot
MPC max drawdown79.67%
PSX max drawdown64.21%
MPC max wkly drop46.59%
PSX max wkly drop35.54%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +82.80% | +69.76% |
| CAGR | +83.05% | +69.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.88 | 1.77 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.74% | 17.28% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.13% | 6.88% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.18% | 9.97% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +496.84% | +228.19% |
| CAGR | +42.98% | +26.85% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.12 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdown | 44.75% | 44.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.06% | 13.61% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.43% | 25.32% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +868.84% | +270.99% |
| CAGR | +25.51% | +14.01% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.66 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 79.67% | 64.21% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.01% | 15.87% | |
| Max wkly drop | 46.59% | 35.54% |
Business comparison
| Category | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Phillips 66 |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| Core business | Marathon Petroleum is the largest U.S. independent oil refiner, operating 13 refineries with approximately 3 million barrels per day of capacity, focused entirely on refining and marketing, after selling its Speedway convenience store chain and its midstream MPC/MPLX stake. | Phillips 66 is a diversified downstream energy company operating refining (approximately 1.9 million bpd capacity), midstream (NGL pipelines and terminals), chemicals (CPChem, a 50/50 joint venture with Chevron), and marketing and specialties segments. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Marathon's refining margins (crack spread), refinery utilization rates, capital return to shareholders (buybacks and dividends), and the company's balance sheet strength for opportunistic shareholder returns. | Investors track Phillips 66's refining margin performance, midstream fee-based earnings stability, CPChem chemical earnings cycle, and capital return as the company balances investment across its diversified downstream portfolio. |
MPC strengths
- →Largest U.S. independent refiner with geographic diversity across the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and both coasts provides exposure to regional refined product markets
- →Simplified business model after selling Speedway — pure-play refiner focused entirely on crude processing margins
- →Aggressive capital return philosophy — Marathon has returned billions in buybacks and dividends as refining margins improved
PSX strengths
- →Diversified downstream portfolio — refining, midstream, and chemicals provides multiple earnings streams with different cyclical drivers, reducing pure refining cycle volatility
- →CPChem joint venture with Chevron has world-scale petrochemical facilities providing earnings exposure to chemical commodity cycles
- →Midstream segment's fee-based earnings provide more predictable income than purely margin-dependent refining
Risks to watch — MPC
- →Refining margins (crack spreads) are highly cyclical — the spread between crude oil input cost and refined product output price (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) is driven by seasonal demand and crude supply dynamics
- →Long-term EV adoption trend will reduce gasoline demand over decades, though the pace remains uncertain
- →Refinery capacity investment decisions must balance near-term cash generation against long-term demand uncertainty from energy transition
Risks to watch — PSX
- →Diversification means Phillips 66 benefits less than pure-play refiners (Marathon) when refining margins are exceptionally strong
- →CPChem chemicals exposure means PSX can suffer in years when both refining and chemicals margins are weak simultaneously
- →Complex business structure with multiple segments and a JV makes financial analysis more complex than Marathon's simpler pure-refiner model
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