CAG vs SJM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CAG and SJM are mid-size packaged food companies competing for grocery shelf space with established consumer brands, both navigating the post-pandemic challenge of volume recovery after years of price-driven revenue growth. Smucker's Hostess acquisition gives it a significant new category, while Conagra's frozen food portfolio benefits from secular convenience trends.
CAG vs SJM compares two packaged food brand portfolios navigating private label competition and consumer value-seeking behavior, both working to balance pricing and volume in a normalizing grocery environment.
SJM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SJM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+17.31% vs -38.75%), though CAG trades at the lower forward P/E (8.54x vs 10.87x). SJM leads on both revenue growth (5.80%) and operating margin (18.46%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +6.22% for CAG and +4.38% for SJM.
- →Want exposure to a broad portfolio of frozen and grocery food brands including Birds Eye and Healthy Choice
- →Believe frozen food convenience trends provide a structural tailwind for Conagra's largest segment
- →See value in Conagra's ongoing cost discipline and brand investment program
- →Want exposure to leading brands in peanut butter, jams, and coffee alongside a growing snack cake business
- →Believe the Hostess acquisition expands Smucker's commercial opportunity despite integration complexity
- →Value SJM's strong brand positions in fundamental pantry staple categories
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 26.0 | 35.8 |
| AI rank | #2665 | #1550 |
| Latest close | $13.20 | $110.86 |
| 1M return | -5.24% | +7.59% |
| 6M return | -26.34% | +10.43% |
| 1Y return | -38.75% | +17.31% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.14K (-38.6%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.55K (+15.5%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $5.26K (-47.4%) started 2021-06-21 | $11.08K (+10.8%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $6.9K (-31.0%) started 2016-06-20 | $13.68K (+36.8%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $6.57B | $12.42B |
| Trailing P/E | 10.03 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 8.54 | 10.87 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 1.34 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.24 | 2.15 |
| Analyst target | $14.59 | $121.59 |
| Target upside | +6.22% | +4.38% |
| Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -1.90% | 5.80% |
| Earnings growth | 39.00% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +39.00% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +5.86% | +11.11% |
| Operating margin | 10.57% | 18.46% |
| Profit margin | -0.39% | -1.53% |
| ROIC proxy | -0.51% | -2.39% |
| Return on equity | -0.51% | -2.39% |
| Dividend yield | 10.19% | 3.78% |
| Beta | -0.04 | 0.26 |
| Debt/equity | 89.81 | 128.61 |
| Current ratio | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| Quick ratio | 0.25 | 0.28 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -38.60% | +15.53% |
| CAGR | -38.65% | +15.55% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.76 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.79% | 22.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.08% | 5.16% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.09% | 8.38% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -56.28% | -3.63% |
| CAGR | -15.27% | -0.74% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.79 | -0.09 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.50% | 39.94% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.44% | 15.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.09% | 16.08% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -51.31% | +0.22% |
| CAGR | -6.95% | +0.02% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.32 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.50% | 39.94% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.53% | 15.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.75% | 16.08% |
| Category | CAG | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Conagra Brands, Inc. | The J.M. Smucker Company |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | N/A | Packaged Foods |
| Core business | Conagra Brands is a large packaged food company owning iconic brands including Birds Eye (frozen vegetables), Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Slim Jim, and many other grocery and frozen food products. | J.M. Smucker owns consumer food brands across coffee (Folgers, Dunkin' at-home), peanut butter (Jif), fruit spreads (Smucker's), and following its acquisition of Hostess, snack cakes and sweet baked goods. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Conagra's organic volume recovery after price-led inflation years, brand investment effectiveness, and the profitability improvement trajectory across its grocery and refrigerated/frozen segments. | Investors track Smucker's revenue growth and margin improvement from the Hostess acquisition integration, coffee category trends, and how the Jif and Smucker's core brands perform versus private label alternatives. |
- →Broad portfolio of recognizable frozen and grocery brands provides shelf presence across many grocery categories
- →Frozen food segment has structural secular growth as consumers value convenience
- →Cost optimization programs have improved operating margins over time
- →Number-one or number-two brand positions in core categories including peanut butter (Jif) and jams/jellies (Smucker's)
- →Hostess acquisition significantly expands Smucker's addressable market into the large U.S. snack cake segment
- →Coffee portfolio through Folgers and licensed Dunkin' provides a large, recurring household penetration
- →Volume declines following significant price increases have been more persistent than management expected
- →Private label and store brands have gained share in several Conagra categories during consumer value-seeking periods
- →Significant debt from acquisition activity constrains financial flexibility
- →Coffee commodity prices (arabica and robusta) create raw material cost volatility
- →Private label competition is particularly strong in categories like peanut butter and jams
- →Hostess integration carries execution risk and increases leverage significantly
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