LIVE
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation · Industrials
$520.68
-3.64% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation · Industrials
$541.82
-1.55% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
LMT
2
NOC
3
Comparison scoreboard
NOC LEADS 3/5AI Score
LMT 41.9
NOC ✓51.1
1Y Return
LMT ✓+11.37%
NOC +5.29%
Fwd P/E
LMT ✓16.31
NOC 17.90
Target Up.
LMT +17.68%
NOC ✓+27.34%
Op. Margin
LMT 11.00%
NOC ✓11.69%
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
LMT vs NOC: Lockheed Martin vs Northrop Grumman Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor with the F-35 fighter jet and HIMARS missiles as its anchors, while Northrop Grumman has the B-21 Raider bomber and GBSD ICBM as near-monopoly US strategic deterrence programs. Both are high-quality defense companies with different program risks.
LMT vs NOC is the world's most valuable fighter program plus growing missile demand versus monopoly stealth bomber and ICBM modernization — Lockheed wins if F-35 production ramp and HIMARS demand continue; Northrop wins if B-21 and GBSD execute on cost without fixed-price overruns.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
NOC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LMT leads on both 1-year return (+11.37%) and forward P/E quality (16.31x vs 17.90x for NOC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NOC leads on both revenue growth (4.40%) and operating margin (11.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NOC (+27.34%) than for LMT (+17.68%).
Normalized 1Y performance
LMT
NOC
Recent returns
LMT
NOC
Analyst price targets & sentiment
LMT · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$408.00
analyst high$670.00
analyst mean$615.74
current price$520.68
+17.7% upside to analyst mean
NOC · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$477.00
analyst mean$687.14
current price$541.82
+27.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
LMT may suit investors who:
- →want the world's largest defense contractor with diversified revenue across fighters, missiles, and space
- →value F-35's 3,300+ planned unit production as a multi-decade revenue and sustainment stream
- →believe HIMARS demand from European allies and Pacific partners will sustain elevated missile orders
- →prefer a more diversified defense portfolio vs Northrop's concentration in B-21 and GBSD
NOC may suit investors who:
- →want near-monopoly exposure to US strategic deterrence (B-21 bomber, GBSD ICBM)
- →believe the B-21 program will be managed to avoid the fixed-price overruns common to new bomber programs
- →value Space Force satellite and C4ISR programs as a growing government market for Northrop
- →prefer a higher strategic asset concentration vs Lockheed's broader program mix
Performance & AI score
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.9 | 51.1 |
| AI rank | #973 | #442 |
| Latest close | $520.68 | $541.82 |
| 1M return | -3.64% | -1.55% |
| 6M return | -4.10% | -12.44% |
| 1Y return | +11.37% | +5.29% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.99K (+9.9%) started 2025-07-14 | $10.4K (+4.0%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $17K (+70.0%) started 2021-07-14 | $16.83K (+68.3%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $33.22K (+232.2%) started 2016-07-14 | $32.75K (+227.5%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $120.64B | $76.65B |
| Trailing P/E | 25.31 | 16.92 |
| Forward P/E | 16.31 | 17.90 |
| Price/Sales | 1.57 | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.86 | 2.17 |
| Analyst target | $615.74 | $687.14 |
| Target upside | +17.68% | +27.34% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 0.30% | 4.40% |
| Earnings growth | -11.50% | 84.90% |
| EPS growth | -11.50% | +84.90% |
| FCF margin | +5.31% | +4.89% |
| Operating margin | 11.00% | 11.69% |
| Profit margin | 6.38% | 10.80% |
| ROIC proxy | 67.64% | 28.51% |
| Return on equity | 67.64% | 28.51% |
| Dividend yield | 2.66% | 1.74% |
| Beta | 0.11 | -0.10 |
| Debt/equity | 276.37 | 102.68 |
| Current ratio | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| Quick ratio | 0.91 | 0.98 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
LMT max drawdown27.35%
NOC max drawdown35.42%
LMT max wkly drop13.30%
NOC max wkly drop13.55%
5Y risk snapshot
LMT max drawdown32.26%
NOC max drawdown35.42%
LMT max wkly drop13.30%
NOC max wkly drop13.85%
10Y risk snapshot
LMT max drawdown36.67%
NOC max drawdown36.38%
LMT max wkly drop19.06%
NOC max wkly drop16.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +9.95% | +3.97% |
| CAGR | +9.99% | +3.99% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 27.35% | 35.42% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.81% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.30% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +52.91% | +58.17% |
| CAGR | +8.87% | +9.61% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.29 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 32.26% | 35.42% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.80% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.30% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +156.25% | +181.85% |
| CAGR | +9.87% | +10.92% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.33 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 36.67% | 36.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.76% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.06% | 16.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lockheed Martin Corporation | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | World's largest defense contractor by revenue with F-35 fighters (the most expensive weapons program ever), missile and fire control (HIMARS, PAC-3 missiles), rotary/mission systems (Black Hawk helicopters), and space systems. | Major US defense contractor with B-21 Raider stealth bomber, Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) ICBM program, space systems, and cyber and C4ISR electronics. Northrop's space and missile programs are uniquely positioned for great power competition. |
| Investor focus | F-35 production ramp and international orders, missile demand from global conflicts, space segment growth, and cash return to shareholders. | B-21 Raider production ramp and margin improvement (fixed-price contract challenges), GBSD program execution, space segment growth, and shareholder return. |
LMT strengths
- →F-35 program has 3,300+ planned units across the US and allied nations — a multi-decade production and sustainment revenue stream
- →HIMARS and PAC-3 missile systems have seen surging demand from global conflicts and allied nation procurement
- →International F-35 sales to Norway, Japan, Singapore, and others are growing the program's revenue base beyond US DOD
NOC strengths
- →B-21 Raider is the US Air Force's next-generation stealth bomber — a monopoly program for the next 30+ years of manned strategic bombing
- →GBSD ICBM modernization is the only new US land-based ICBM program — another long-duration near-monopoly
- →Space systems and satellite intelligence are growing with the Space Force and national security satellite demand
Risks to watch — LMT
- →F-35 software delays and engine issues have created program risk and cost growth
- →F-35 unit cost reduction has been challenging — the program continues to face production timeline and margin pressure
- →US defense budget sequestration risk is a perennial concern for major weapons programs
Risks to watch — NOC
- →B-21 is a fixed-price contract — Northrop bears all cost overrun risk, which has historically been significant for new bomber programs
- →GBSD cost overruns have already emerged — fixed-price exposure on two major programs simultaneously is a risk
- →Northrop's portfolio is more concentrated in longer-development programs vs Lockheed's more diversified product mix
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