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SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc. · Real Estate - Mall & Retail REIT
$229.16
+1.37% this month
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NNN
National Retail Properties, Inc. · Real Estate - Net Lease REIT
$47.52
+3.37% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SPG
3
NNN
1
Comparison scoreboard
SPG LEADS 3/5AI Score
SPG ✓39.4
NNN 25.9
1Y Return
SPG ✓+42.62%
NNN +21.82%
Fwd P/E
SPG 34.03
NNN ✓22.62
Target Up.
SPG ✓-0.62%
NNN -1.80%
Op. Margin
SPG 43.38%
NNN N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026
Quick take
SPG vs NNN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SPG owns and actively manages premier malls and outlets with more cyclical, higher-risk-higher-reward economics, while NNN owns single-tenant net lease properties with simpler, more predictable triple-net cash flows and a long dividend growth track record. The comparison highlights two fundamentally different retail real estate investment models.
SPG vs NNN contrasts an actively managed, higher-quality mall and outlet REIT with more cyclical exposure against a more passive, predictable single-tenant net lease REIT with a long dividend growth history.
Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026
SPG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+42.62% vs +21.82%), though NNN has the better forward P/E setup (22.62x vs 34.03x for SPG). Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: -0.62% for SPG and -1.80% for NNN.
Normalized 1Y performance
SPG
NNN
Recent returns
SPG
NNN
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SPG · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.2/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$120.00
analyst mean$227.95
current price$229.16
-0.6% upside to analyst mean
NNN · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.9/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$44.00
analyst high$50.00
analyst mean$46.63
current price$47.52
-1.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SPG may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to the highest-quality U.S. malls and premium outlets
- →Believe mixed-use redevelopment will continue creating incremental value
- →Are comfortable with greater cyclicality and economic sensitivity
NNN may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to predictable, long-term triple-net lease cash flows
- →Value a long, consistent track record of dividend increases
- →Prefer lower volatility over active mall management exposure
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.4 | 25.9 |
| AI rank | #1144 | #2639 |
| Latest close | $229.16 | $47.52 |
| 1M return | +1.37% | +3.37% |
| 6M return | +19.84% | +18.42% |
| 1Y return | +42.62% | +21.82% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.98K (+39.8%) started 2025-08-04 | $13.09K (+30.9%) started 2025-07-31 |
| 5Y ago | $26.43K (+164.3%) started 2021-08-05 | $17.23K (+72.3%) started 2021-08-02 |
| 10Y ago | $29.23K (+192.3%) started 2016-08-05 | $27.53K (+175.3%) started 2016-08-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $86.9B | $9.03B |
| Trailing P/E | 15.95 | 23.17 |
| Forward P/E | 34.03 | 22.62 |
| Price/Sales | 10.20 | 9.65 |
| EV/Revenue | 15.70 | 14.84 |
| Analyst target | $227.95 | $46.63 |
| Target upside | -0.62% | -1.80% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 19.30% | 4.10% |
| Earnings growth | 16.40% | -2.70% |
| EPS growth | +16.40% | -2.70% |
| FCF margin | +37.52% | -148.90% |
| Operating margin | 43.38% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 70.59% | 41.38% |
| ROIC proxy | 113.59% | 8.85% |
| Return on equity | 113.59% | 8.85% |
| Dividend yield | 3.84% | 5.22% |
| Beta | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| Debt/equity | 457.47 | 110.44 |
| Current ratio | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Quick ratio | 0.20 | 0.11 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdown12.55%
NNN max drawdown8.60%
SPG max wkly drop6.70%
NNN max wkly drop6.01%
5Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdown45.84%
NNN max drawdown25.22%
SPG max wkly drop15.68%
NNN max wkly drop11.62%
10Y risk snapshot
SPG max drawdown76.28%
NNN max drawdown54.99%
SPG max wkly drop55.74%
NNN max wkly drop43.12%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +39.78% | +21.82% |
| CAGR | +39.89% | +21.83% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.61 | 0.98 | |
| Max drawdown | 12.55% | 8.60% | |
| Max daily drop | 3.57% | 4.00% | |
| Max wkly drop | 6.70% | 6.01% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +110.25% | +27.39% |
| CAGR | +16.03% | +4.97% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 45.84% | 25.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.11% | 5.42% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.68% | 11.62% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +64.60% | +46.00% |
| CAGR | +5.11% | +3.86% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.20 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 76.28% | 54.99% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.71% | 24.42% | |
| Max wkly drop | 55.74% | 43.12% |
Business comparison
| Category | SPG | NNN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Simon Property Group, Inc. | National Retail Properties, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate - Net Lease REIT |
| Industry | REIT - Retail | N/A |
| Core business | Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall REIT, owning and operating premier shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use properties, focused on high-quality, well-located retail real estate. | National Retail Properties is a net lease REIT focused on single-tenant retail properties, primarily in convenience stores, restaurants, and automotive service categories, leased under long-term net leases. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Simon's occupancy rates, releasing spreads (rent growth on new leases versus expiring ones), and tenant sales productivity across its mall and outlet portfolio. | Investors track National Retail Properties' long dividend increase streak (one of the longest in the REIT sector), acquisition cap rates, and tenant diversification across retail subcategories. |
SPG strengths
- →Dominant ownership of the highest-quality, most productive U.S. malls and outlets
- →Strong balance sheet and access to capital relative to mall REIT peers
- →Diversification into mixed-use development adds growth beyond traditional retail
NNN strengths
- →One of the longest consecutive annual dividend increase streaks in the entire REIT sector
- →Conservative balance sheet and disciplined underwriting approach
- →Diversified across resilient retail subcategories like convenience and automotive services
Risks to watch — SPG
- →Mall real estate continues to face structural pressure from e-commerce shift
- →More volatile and economically sensitive than triple-net lease REITs
- →Department store anchor bankruptcies and closures create periodic releasing challenges
Risks to watch — NNN
- →Smaller scale than larger net lease peers limits some diversification and capital cost advantages
- →Retail-concentrated portfolio carries some exposure to e-commerce disruption in certain subcategories
- →Slower growth profile than some smaller, faster-growing net lease peers
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