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CARR
Carrier Global Corporation · Industrials - HVAC & Refrigeration
$71.81
+16.88% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
TT
Trane Technologies plc · Industrials - Climate Control Systems
$483.40
+7.90% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CARR
1
TT
4
Comparison scoreboard
TT LEADS 4/5AI Score
CARR 53.8
TT ✓60.1
1Y Return
CARR +2.91%
TT ✓+14.56%
Fwd P/E
CARR ✓21.84
TT 26.92
Target Up.
CARR +9.07%
TT ✓+13.81%
Op. Margin
CARR 6.57%
TT ✓15.52%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
CARR vs TT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CARR (Carrier Global) and TT (Trane Technologies) are both HVAC giants benefiting from global cooling demand growth, energy efficiency mandates, and building decarbonization — Carrier with its iconic residential brand, cold chain refrigeration, and Viessmann heat pump expansion, versus Trane with dominant commercial HVAC, data center cooling leadership, and transport refrigeration through Thermo King.
CARR vs TT is residential HVAC brand plus cold chain (Carrier's consumer-facing brand and refrigeration) versus commercial HVAC leadership and data center cooling (Trane's institutional market dominance and AI infrastructure tailwind) — both exposed to global climate control demand but serving different primary customers.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.56% vs +2.91%), though CARR trades at the lower forward P/E (21.84x vs 26.92x). TT leads on both revenue growth (6.00%) and operating margin (15.52%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TT (+13.81%) than for CARR (+9.07%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CARR
TT
Recent returns
CARR
TT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CARR
Price target range
analyst mean$76.25
current price$71.81
+9.1% upside to analyst mean
TT · 21 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$254.00
analyst mean$521.51
current price$483.40
+13.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CARR may suit investors who:
- →Want residential and commercial HVAC exposure through the iconic Carrier brand with cold chain refrigeration and European heat pump growth through Viessmann
- →Value Carrier's strategic portfolio simplification as creating focus on HVAC and cold chain with cleaner financial presentation and better capital allocation
- →See cold chain refrigeration as a structural growth opportunity as global food safety standards and pharmaceutical distribution require expanded temperature-controlled logistics
TT may suit investors who:
- →Want commercial HVAC market leadership with a significant AI data center cooling tailwind as hyperscale data centers require sophisticated climate control systems
- →Value Trane's sustainability positioning and energy-efficient products as aligned with regulatory mandates and corporate decarbonization commitments driving HVAC upgrade cycles
- →See Thermo King's transport refrigeration as a complementary business serving cold chain logistics with different cyclical characteristics than commercial building HVAC
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 53.8 | 60.1 |
| AI rank | #290 | #162 |
| Latest close | $71.81 | $483.40 |
| 1M return | +16.88% | +7.90% |
| 6M return | +37.04% | +26.45% |
| 1Y return | +2.91% | +14.56% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.28K (+2.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.51K (+15.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.27K (+72.7%) started 2021-06-21 | $29.89K (+198.9%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $68.57K (+585.7%) started 2020-03-19 | $127.88K (+1178.8%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $58.07B | $101.3B |
| Trailing P/E | 46.61 | 34.95 |
| Forward P/E | 21.84 | 26.92 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 4.71 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.18 | 4.85 |
| Analyst target | $76.25 | $521.51 |
| Target upside | +9.07% | +13.81% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.40% | 6.00% |
| Earnings growth | -40.70% | -2.10% |
| EPS growth | -40.70% | -2.10% |
| FCF margin | +3.89% | +12.32% |
| Operating margin | 6.57% | 15.52% |
| Profit margin | 5.99% | 13.41% |
| ROIC proxy | 9.91% | 36.63% |
| Return on equity | 9.91% | 36.63% |
| Dividend yield | 1.37% | 0.92% |
| Beta | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| Debt/equity | 91.10 | 53.60 |
| Current ratio | 1.05 | 1.09 |
| Quick ratio | 0.59 | 0.73 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CARR max drawdown37.62%
TT max drawdown20.34%
CARR max wkly drop17.11%
TT max wkly drop8.96%
5Y risk snapshot
CARR max drawdown40.82%
TT max drawdown40.53%
CARR max wkly drop17.11%
TT max wkly drop11.01%
10Y risk snapshot
CARR max drawdown40.82%
TT max drawdown40.53%
CARR max wkly drop17.32%
TT max wkly drop26.84%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +2.79% | +15.13% |
| CAGR | +2.80% | +15.16% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdown | 37.62% | 20.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.61% | 8.40% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.11% | 8.96% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +63.20% | +183.60% |
| CAGR | +10.31% | +23.22% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.33 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdown | 40.82% | 40.53% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.61% | 8.40% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.11% | 11.01% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +539.98% | +993.23% |
| CAGR | +34.59% | +27.04% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.86 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdown | 40.82% | 40.53% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.75% | 10.94% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.32% | 26.84% |
Business comparison
| Category | CARR | TT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Carrier Global Corporation | Trane Technologies plc |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Building Products & Equipment |
| Core business | Carrier Global is a global provider of building and cold-chain solutions — including Carrier residential and commercial HVAC systems, Automated Logic building management software, Kidde fire safety products, and Carrier refrigeration systems for cold chain transportation and storage. | Trane Technologies is a global climate innovation company providing climate control solutions for buildings, homes, and transportation through its Trane (commercial and residential HVAC) and Thermo King (transport refrigeration) brands — focused on decarbonizing heating and cooling with energy-efficient heat pumps and building management systems. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Carrier's HVAC revenue by segment (residential vs. commercial), refrigeration business performance, building automation software growth, aftermarket parts and services revenue, and margin improvement from portfolio simplification after divesting non-core segments. | Investors track Trane's commercial HVAC demand (data centers, healthcare, education), residential HVAC volumes, Thermo King refrigeration orders, and the company's 'Gigaton Challenge' sustainability commitments as a growth driver for energy-efficient HVAC upgrades. |
CARR strengths
- →Carrier brand has over 100 years of HVAC history — one of the most recognized air conditioning brands globally, particularly strong in residential and light commercial HVAC
- →Cold chain refrigeration business provides exposure to food safety and pharmaceutical cold chain growth as global food distribution and vaccine/biopharma distribution expands
- →Viessmann Climate Solutions acquisition adds European heat pump market leadership — an increasingly critical technology as European building heating decarbonization accelerates
TT strengths
- →Commercial HVAC market leadership — Trane has a dominant position in large commercial buildings, data centers, hospitals, and universities where precision climate control is critical
- →Data center cooling is a significant and rapidly growing application — AI infrastructure buildout is driving massive data center construction that requires sophisticated cooling systems
- →Sustainability-focused positioning — Trane's emphasis on energy-efficient heat pumps and building decarbonization aligns with regulatory and corporate sustainability mandates driving HVAC upgrade cycles
Risks to watch — CARR
- →Residential HVAC is cyclically sensitive to housing markets and homeowner spending — mortgage rate increases and housing slowdowns reduce new home HVAC system sales
- →Carrier divested several fire and security businesses to focus on HVAC and cold chain — execution of the strategic transformation requires demonstrating growth in the simplified portfolio
- →European heat pump market has been volatile — government subsidy changes and consumer demand uncertainty have created revenue variability in the Viessmann business post-acquisition
Risks to watch — TT
- →Commercial HVAC market is cyclical with commercial construction activity — an office market downturn or commercial real estate weakness reduces new system orders
- →Thermo King transport refrigeration is exposed to freight market cycles — reduced trucking and trailer demand in freight downturns affects Thermo King order rates
- →Residential HVAC competition is intense — Carrier, Lennox, Rheem, and others compete for the residential market where Trane (now Carrier-branded residential in some markets) must maintain differentiation
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