LIVE
ETSY
Etsy, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$73.95
+28.36% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
SHOP
Shopify Inc. · Technology
$108.85
+7.76% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ETSY
2
SHOP
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
ETSY 50.4
SHOP ✓73.5
1Y Return
ETSY ✓+33.73%
SHOP +2.72%
Fwd P/E
ETSY ✓10.62
SHOP 46.67
Target Up.
ETSY +4.20%
SHOP ✓+36.17%
Op. Margin
ETSY 18.98%
SHOP N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ETSY vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Etsy and Shopify both serve the independent commerce ecosystem but in fundamentally different ways. Etsy is a two-sided marketplace connecting unique goods sellers with buyers on Etsy.com. Shopify provides merchant infrastructure for businesses to sell on their own websites, social media, and marketplaces. Shopify is significantly larger, growing faster, and more financially diversified; Etsy is more niche but has a uniquely defensible inventory.
ETSY vs SHOP is a differentiated two-sided handmade goods marketplace (Etsy) versus the leading e-commerce enablement platform infrastructure company (Shopify) — Shopify is larger, faster-growing, and has stronger platform lock-in; Etsy's unique inventory creates a defensible niche that larger platforms cannot replicate.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
ETSY and SHOP are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. ETSY leads on both 1-year return (+33.73%) and forward P/E (10.62x vs 46.67x for SHOP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHOP (+36.17%) than for ETSY (+4.20%).
Normalized 1Y performance
ETSY
SHOP
Recent returns
ETSY
SHOP
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ETSY
Price target range
analyst mean$72.40
current price$73.95
+4.2% upside to analyst mean
SHOP · 45 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$105.00
analyst high$200.00
analyst mean$148.22
current price$108.85
+36.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ETSY may suit investors who:
- →prefer a differentiated two-sided marketplace with non-commoditized handmade inventory that large platforms cannot replicate
- →value Etsy's niche positioning protecting it from Amazon direct competition in unique, vintage, and handmade goods
- →want marketplace exposure at lower valuation than Shopify with recovery potential as consumer discretionary normalizes
- →are comfortable with GMS growth pressure and buyer retention challenges in post-COVID demand normalization
SHOP may suit investors who:
- →prefer the dominant e-commerce infrastructure platform serving 2M+ merchants across all industries globally
- →value Shopify Payments growing financial services revenue that scales with merchant GMV without incremental merchant acquisition cost
- →want a SaaS platform with deep merchant switching costs and operating leverage improving toward sustained profitability
- →are comfortable with Amazon competition and SFN logistics execution complexity as Shopify expands beyond core SaaS
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.4 | 73.5 |
| AI rank | #446 | #28 |
| Latest close | $73.95 | $108.85 |
| 1M return | +28.36% | +7.76% |
| 6M return | +39.90% | -32.70% |
| 1Y return | +33.73% | +2.72% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.37K (+33.7%) started 2025-06-18 | $10.27K (+2.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $4.35K (-56.5%) started 2021-06-18 | $7.42K (-25.8%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $73.95K (+639.5%) started 2016-06-20 | $365.64K (+3556.4%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $6.59B | $141.25B |
| Trailing P/E | 26.62 | 106.72 |
| Forward P/E | 10.62 | 46.67 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 11.42 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.84 | 11.43 |
| Analyst target | $72.40 | $148.22 |
| Target upside | +4.20% | +36.17% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 3.10% | 34.30% |
| Earnings growth | -7.10% | N/A |
| EPS growth | -7.10% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +5.71% | +10.16% |
| Operating margin | 18.98% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 9.81% | 10.77% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 11.31% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 11.31% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.86 | 2.59 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | 1.43 |
| Current ratio | 1.69 | 6.20 |
| Quick ratio | 1.15 | 4.53 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ETSY max drawdown41.70%
SHOP max drawdown46.71%
ETSY max wkly drop22.08%
SHOP max wkly drop22.56%
5Y risk snapshot
ETSY max drawdown86.26%
SHOP max drawdown84.82%
ETSY max wkly drop28.83%
SHOP max wkly drop34.38%
10Y risk snapshot
ETSY max drawdown86.26%
SHOP max drawdown84.82%
ETSY max wkly drop35.34%
SHOP max wkly drop34.38%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +33.73% | +2.72% |
| CAGR | +33.75% | +2.72% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.72 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.70% | 46.71% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.80% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.08% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -56.45% | -25.79% |
| CAGR | -15.32% | -5.79% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.11 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 86.26% | 84.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.83% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.83% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +639.50% | +3556.37% |
| CAGR | +22.17% | +43.35% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.56 | 0.83 | |
| Max drawdown | 86.26% | 84.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.15% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 35.34% | 34.38% |
Business comparison
| Category | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Etsy, Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Etsy operates a global online marketplace for handmade, vintage, and craft goods connecting independent creators with buyers. Its marketplace model generates revenue from listing fees, transaction fees, payment processing, and advertising (Offsite Ads, Etsy Ads). Etsy also owns Reverb (musical instruments) and Depop (secondhand fashion). The company benefits from a differentiated, hard-to-replicate inventory of unique items that platforms like Amazon cannot easily reproduce at scale. | Shopify is the leading e-commerce enablement platform, providing merchants of all sizes with tools to build online stores, manage inventory, process payments (Shopify Payments), ship orders (Shopify Fulfillment Network), and access capital (Shopify Capital). Unlike Etsy, Shopify doesn't operate a buyer-facing marketplace — it provides the infrastructure for merchants to sell directly to consumers on their own branded storefronts. Over 2 million merchants across 175+ countries use Shopify. |
| Investor focus | Investors track gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth, active buyer retention and reactivation, seller experience improvements driving supply quality, and Etsy Ads revenue as a higher-margin growth vector. | Investors track gross merchandise volume (GMV), Shopify Payments attach rate (payment processing as a percentage of merchant GMV), merchant subscription revenue growth, and operating leverage as Shopify scales toward sustained profitability after years of heavy investment. |
ETSY strengths
- →Unique, non-commoditized inventory of handmade and vintage goods creates a differentiated shopping destination that Amazon cannot easily replicate
- →Two-sided marketplace with network effects — more sellers attract buyers, more buyers attract sellers — creates organic growth dynamics
- →Etsy Ads (seller-funded advertising on Etsy and Google) is a high-margin revenue stream growing faster than transaction fee revenue
SHOP strengths
- →The leading SaaS platform for e-commerce enablement, used by merchants from small boutiques to major brands (Kylie Cosmetics, Allbirds, Gymshark)
- →Shopify Payments attach rate drives high-margin financial services revenue that scales with merchant GMV growth
- →Merchant ecosystem lock-in is deep — switching an entire e-commerce operation (store, payments, inventory, shipping) away from Shopify is very costly
Risks to watch — ETSY
- →GMS growth has been under pressure post-COVID as discretionary consumer spending normalized from pandemic-elevated crafts and home goods demand
- →Buyer retention is the primary challenge — buyers who find Etsy for one purchase don't always return, limiting recurring purchase frequency
- →Chinese marketplace competition (Temu, Shein) disrupts the affordable handcrafted goods market with factory-made alternatives at extreme price points
Risks to watch — SHOP
- →Amazon continues to be the dominant e-commerce platform and offers competing merchant services (Fulfillment by Amazon) to Shopify merchants
- →Operating leverage improvement requires continued discipline after years of heavy infrastructure investment — profitability must sustain as growth moderates
- →Shopify's fulfillment network (SFN) investments have had mixed execution — logistics is a capital-intensive business outside core SaaS competencies
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