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BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$336.95
+17.77% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$163.81
+8.71% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
BURL
4
TJX
0
Comparison scoreboard
BURL LEADS 4/5AI Score
BURL ✓54.1
TJX 52.9
1Y Return
BURL ✓+48.22%
TJX +33.17%
Fwd P/E
BURL ✓24.43
TJX 29.24
Target Up.
BURL ✓+8.94%
TJX +5.48%
Op. Margin
BURL N/A
TJX 11.77%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
BURL vs TJX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Burlington and TJX are both US off-price retailers, but TJX is the undisputed market leader with 4,900+ stores, global operations, and 10%+ operating margins. Burlington is a smaller, improving competitor with a compelling store count expansion plan and margin recovery story. Both benefit from the off-price retail secular shift as consumers seek value regardless of economic cycle.
BURL vs TJX is the off-price market leader with scale, margin superiority, and global diversification (TJX) versus the improving off-price competitor with margin recovery upside and smaller-store expansion potential (Burlington) — TJX is the quality hold, Burlington is the turnaround/growth bet.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
BURL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BURL leads on both 1-year return (+48.22%) and forward P/E (24.43x vs 29.24x for TJX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BURL (+8.94%) than for TJX (+5.48%).
Normalized 1Y performance
BURL
TJX
Recent returns
BURL
TJX
Analyst price targets & sentiment
BURL · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$300.00
analyst high$435.00
analyst mean$367.07
current price$336.95
+8.9% upside to analyst mean
TJX · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$87.12
analyst mean$177.63
current price$163.81
+5.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
BURL may suit investors who:
- →prefer a growth story in off-price retail as Burlington expands its store fleet with a smaller-format strategy
- →value margin improvement upside as Burlington's buying relationships and merchandise execution close the gap with TJX
- →want higher-beta off-price retail exposure with more room for comp sales and margin to improve from current levels
- →are comfortable with Burlington's execution gap vs TJX and the pace of operational improvement required for margin targets
TJX may suit investors who:
- →prefer the dominant global off-price retailer with the deepest vendor buying relationships and 10%+ industry-leading margins
- →value TJX's multi-banner strategy covering apparel, home goods, and international markets with consistent execution
- →want a high-quality consumer discretionary compounder with durable earnings through economic cycles
- →are comfortable with lower growth rates from a larger base in exchange for the most reliable off-price execution in retail
Performance & AI score
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 54.1 | 52.9 |
| AI rank | #286 | #314 |
| Latest close | $336.95 | $163.81 |
| 1M return | +17.77% | +8.71% |
| 6M return | +25.64% | +5.24% |
| 1Y return | +48.22% | +33.17% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.82K (+48.2%) started 2025-06-18 | $13.37K (+33.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $11.17K (+11.7%) started 2021-06-18 | $28.54K (+185.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $53.03K (+430.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $55.67K (+456.7%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $21.21B | $186.04B |
| Trailing P/E | 34.70 | 32.76 |
| Forward P/E | 24.43 | 29.24 |
| Price/Sales | 1.78 | 2.51 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.17 | 3.16 |
| Analyst target | $367.07 | $177.63 |
| Target upside | +8.94% | +5.48% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 14.10% | 9.20% |
| Earnings growth | 13.30% | 29.30% |
| EPS growth | +13.30% | +29.30% |
| FCF margin | +1.77% | +7.01% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 11.77% |
| Profit margin | 5.24% | 9.40% |
| ROIC proxy | 39.14% | 61.25% |
| Return on equity | 39.14% | 61.25% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.14% |
| Beta | 1.46 | 0.62 |
| Debt/equity | 319.73 | 136.31 |
| Current ratio | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.40 | 0.49 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdown19.55%
TJX max drawdown10.89%
BURL max wkly drop18.24%
TJX max wkly drop5.42%
5Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdown68.87%
TJX max drawdown27.68%
BURL max wkly drop23.34%
TJX max wkly drop13.72%
10Y risk snapshot
BURL max drawdown68.87%
TJX max drawdown42.55%
BURL max wkly drop38.37%
TJX max wkly drop28.23%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +48.22% | +33.68% |
| CAGR | +48.26% | +33.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.11 | 1.46 | |
| Max drawdown | 19.55% | 10.89% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.24% | 2.90% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.24% | 5.42% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +11.73% | +168.15% |
| CAGR | +2.24% | +21.85% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.17 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdown | 68.87% | 27.68% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.95% | 6.73% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.34% | 13.72% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +430.30% | +385.93% |
| CAGR | +18.17% | +17.14% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdown | 68.87% | 42.55% | |
| Max daily drop | 29.83% | 20.40% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.37% | 28.23% |
Business comparison
| Category | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Burlington Stores, Inc. | The TJX Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer selling apparel, accessories, footwear, and home goods at 20–60% below department store prices. It operates 1,000+ stores across the US. Burlington's model relies on opportunistic buying of vendor overstock and manufacturer closeout merchandise, selling it at deeply discounted prices in a treasure-hunt shopping environment. Burlington is pursuing a smaller-store format strategy with more fleet locations to expand market coverage. | TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Sierra, and Winners (Canada) and T.K. Maxx (Europe). With 4,900+ stores globally, TJX has built the largest off-price buying organization in retail — its global merchandising team sources closeout, excess, and opportunistic inventory from thousands of vendors across 100+ countries. TJX generates 10%+ operating margins, significantly above Burlington. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable store sales growth, new store openings (net unit growth), gross margin improvement as merchandise mix and buying execution improve, and operating margin recovery toward TJX-level profitability. | Investors track comparable store sales growth across divisions, new store openings in US and international markets, gross margin maintenance from buying efficiency, and return on capital demonstrating the high-returns nature of the off-price model. |
BURL strengths
- →Off-price retail model is resilient through economic cycles — value-seeking consumer behavior increases during downturns
- →Smaller-store format strategy allows Burlington to enter markets that its larger-format stores couldn't serve cost-effectively
- →Brand name merchandise at 20–60% discount creates a compelling value proposition that fast fashion and online retailers cannot replicate
TJX strengths
- →Scale advantage in off-price buying — TJX's global merchandise team can negotiate and execute purchases that smaller off-price chains cannot match
- →Multi-banner strategy (TJX, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense) allows targeting different shopper segments and merchandise categories
- →10%+ operating margins are the gold standard in off-price retail — a moat built on decades of buying relationships and execution
Risks to watch — BURL
- →Burlington's margins are below TJX's and Marshalls/HomeGoods levels — execution improvement to close the gap is the primary investment thesis
- →Merchandise mix improvement requires consistent opportunistic buying relationships with vendors and brands that take time to develop
- →Competition from TJX's Marshalls and HomeGoods chains, Ross Stores, and online off-price channels intensifies in favorable market conditions
Risks to watch — TJX
- →Comparable store sales can slow during periods of strong full-price retail (strong economy) when vendor excess inventory is less available
- →International expansion (T.K. Maxx in Europe, HomeSense) carries currency and market-specific execution risk
- →Digital commerce competition doesn't threaten TJX directly (the treasure-hunt model is inherently in-store) but ambient consumer preference for online can reduce store traffic
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