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TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc. · Off-Price Retail
$163.81
+8.71% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Warehouse Club Retail
$951.45
-13.06% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TJX
3
COST
2
Comparison scoreboard
TJX LEADS 3/5AI Score
TJX 52.9
COST ✓60.4
1Y Return
TJX ✓+33.17%
COST -2.69%
Fwd P/E
TJX ✓29.24
COST 43.42
Target Up.
TJX +5.48%
COST ✓+10.18%
Op. Margin
TJX ✓11.77%
COST 3.67%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
TJX vs COST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TJX and COST are both defensive retail models that thrive in value-seeking consumer environments. TJX's off-price treasure hunt is counter-cyclical and e-commerce resistant. Costco's membership model with 93%+ renewal creates recurring, growing revenue from loyal bulk shoppers. TJX trades at a lower valuation than Costco; Costco commands a premium for its extraordinary membership loyalty and compounding membership fee growth.
TJX vs COST — TJX Companies (the off-price treasure hunt retailer with opportunistic inventory sourcing from 21,000+ global vendors providing a changing, deeply discounted selection that e-commerce cannot replicate) versus Costco (the membership warehouse club generating $4.6B+ annual membership fee revenue with 93%+ renewal rate, Kirkland private label, and near-zero merchandise markup that makes membership the profit center).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TJX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TJX leads on both 1-year return (+33.17%) and forward P/E (29.24x vs 43.42x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while TJX maintains the higher operating margin (11.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COST (+10.18%) than for TJX (+5.48%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TJX
COST
Recent returns
TJX
COST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TJX · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$87.12
analyst mean$177.63
current price$163.81
+5.5% upside to analyst mean
COST · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$620.00
analyst high$1,225.00
analyst mean$1,082.33
current price$951.45
+10.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TJX may suit investors who:
- →value TJX's e-commerce resistance — the treasure hunt shopping experience requires physical store visits that online off-price competitors struggle to replicate
- →see counter-cyclicality as a portfolio hedge — TJX's opportunistic sourcing benefits from retail overproduction and brand distress that increases in economic downturns
- →prefer lower valuation (20-25x earnings) vs Costco's 45-55x premium, providing more margin of safety for a high-quality defensive retailer
- →are comfortable with inventory sourcing risk from brand inventory rationalization and online resale competition from ThredUp and eBay
COST may suit investors who:
- →value Costco's membership model as a consumer loyalty flywheel — 93%+ renewal rates in the US demonstrate extraordinary customer retention that provides recurring revenue regardless of economic cycle
- →see Kirkland Signature as a private label defensibility moat — Costco shoppers buy Kirkland as a trusted quality brand that increases loyalty beyond any single external vendor relationship
- →believe Costco's inflation-proof value proposition (bulk pricing 20%+ below retail) creates recession-resistant consumer spend as budget-conscious households prioritize Costco value
- →are comfortable with premium 45-55x P/E valuation, e-commerce execution challenges, and international expansion execution risk in exchange for the best membership loyalty metrics in retail
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 52.9 | 60.4 |
| AI rank | #314 | #154 |
| Latest close | $163.81 | $951.45 |
| 1M return | +8.71% | -13.06% |
| 6M return | +5.24% | +10.29% |
| 1Y return | +33.17% | -2.69% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.37K (+33.7%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.76K (-2.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $28.54K (+185.4%) started 2021-06-21 | $27.11K (+171.1%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $55.67K (+456.7%) started 2016-06-20 | $85.42K (+754.2%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $186.04B | $435.65B |
| Trailing P/E | 32.76 | 49.51 |
| Forward P/E | 29.24 | 43.42 |
| Price/Sales | 2.51 | 1.67 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.16 | 1.48 |
| Analyst target | $177.63 | $1,082.33 |
| Target upside | +5.48% | +10.18% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 9.20% | 21.50% |
| Earnings growth | 29.30% | 45.50% |
| EPS growth | +29.30% | +45.50% |
| FCF margin | +7.01% | +2.37% |
| Operating margin | 11.77% | 3.67% |
| Profit margin | 9.40% | 3.01% |
| ROIC proxy | 61.25% | 29.15% |
| Return on equity | 61.25% | 29.15% |
| Dividend yield | 1.14% | 0.60% |
| Beta | 0.62 | 0.87 |
| Debt/equity | 136.31 | 60.26 |
| Current ratio | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratio | 0.49 | 0.56 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TJX max drawdown10.89%
COST max drawdown15.38%
TJX max wkly drop5.42%
COST max wkly drop8.96%
5Y risk snapshot
TJX max drawdown27.68%
COST max drawdown31.40%
TJX max wkly drop13.72%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
10Y risk snapshot
TJX max drawdown42.55%
COST max drawdown31.40%
TJX max wkly drop28.23%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +33.68% | -2.41% |
| CAGR | +33.73% | -2.41% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.46 | -0.27 | |
| Max drawdown | 10.89% | 15.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 2.90% | 3.91% | |
| Max wkly drop | 5.42% | 8.96% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +168.15% | +158.18% |
| CAGR | +21.85% | +20.92% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.80 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 27.68% | 31.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.73% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.72% | 16.26% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +385.93% | +616.52% |
| CAGR | +17.14% | +21.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.57 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdown | 42.55% | 31.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.40% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.23% | 16.26% |
Business comparison
| Category | TJX | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The TJX Companies, Inc. | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Discount Stores |
| Core business | TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price retailer operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, and HomeSense across the US, Canada, Europe (TK Maxx), and Australia. TJX's business model is opportunistic buying — purchasing excess inventory, canceled orders, and overstock from brands at deep discounts (20-60% off wholesale) and passing savings to consumers. TJX's 1,200+ buyers source from 21,000+ vendors globally in real-time, creating a 'treasure hunt' shopping experience where inventory constantly changes. No two T.J. Maxx store visits have the same selection — creating repeat visit motivation. | Costco operates 880+ warehouse clubs globally selling bulk merchandise at near-wholesale prices to members who pay an annual membership fee ($65 Gold Star, $130 Executive). Costco's model generates most profit from memberships rather than merchandise — the warehouse floor operates at near-zero markup (10-12% average) while the $4.6B annual membership fee provides high-margin recurring revenue. Costco's Kirkland Signature private label brand is one of the highest-volume consumer packaged goods brands in the US. Costco serves both households and small businesses with bulk packaging at exceptional value. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on TJX's comparable store sales growth, inventory buying opportunities in a promotional retail environment, international expansion (TK Maxx Europe), and operating margin consistency. | Investors focus on Costco's membership renewal rates (93%+ in US/Canada), new warehouse openings, membership fee increases, e-commerce growth, and international expansion (particularly Asia). |
TJX strengths
- →Treasure hunt model is e-commerce resistant: TJX's constantly changing, discounted inventory creates an in-store experience that cannot be replicated online — consumers visit specifically for the discovery shopping experience
- →Counter-cyclical business model: when department stores and brands overproduce, TJX's buyers have more inventory to source at deeper discounts — recessions and retail overproduction benefit TJX's inventory sourcing
- →International expansion runway: TJX operates in 9 countries with TK Maxx in Europe — the off-price model exports well, providing expansion beyond US market saturation
COST strengths
- →Membership fee model with 93% renewal rate: Costco's membership economics are exceptional — 93% annual renewal in the US demonstrates customer loyalty while membership fee revenue grows organically as member count expands
- →Kirkland Signature private label at exceptional value: Kirkland products (batteries, olive oil, wine, clothing) offer near-national-brand quality at 20-40% lower prices — driving basket loyalty and protecting Costco from brand-level pricing comparisons
- →Inflation protection for consumer budgets: Costco's bulk pricing provides significant per-unit cost savings vs grocery and big-box alternatives — the value proposition strengthens in inflationary environments when household budgets are strained
Risks to watch — TJX
- →Inventory sourcing depends on excess retail production: if brands rationalize inventory management (making less, ordering more carefully), TJX's sourcing opportunities become more competitive
- →Competition from online resale (ThredUp, Poshmark, eBay): secondhand and resale platforms offer similar 'treasure hunt' experiences online — increasingly competing for the same value-seeking shopper
- →Execution risk of 1,200+ buyers: TJX's business depends on 1,200 experienced buyers maintaining vendor relationships and deal quality — a buyer talent market challenge
Risks to watch — COST
- →Premium valuation: Costco trades at 45-55x earnings — one of the highest P/E ratios in retail reflecting membership model quality but leaving minimal margin of safety for execution misses
- →E-commerce challenge for bulk warehousing: Costco's e-commerce offering is improving but the warehouse experience (sampling, bulk pickup) doesn't translate perfectly online — Amazon and Walmart grocery capture some Costco's e-commerce share
- →International execution risk: Costco's Japan, Korea, and Australia operations are strong; expansion into new markets has mixed track record — the warehouse model requires large facility investment that pays off slowly
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