LIVE
WMT
Walmart Inc. · Consumer Staples
$117.18
-12.68% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Staples
$951.45
-13.06% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
WMT
4
COST
1
Comparison scoreboard
WMT LEADS 4/5AI Score
WMT 53.3
COST ✓60.4
1Y Return
WMT ✓+24.33%
COST -2.69%
Fwd P/E
WMT ✓35.65
COST 42.05
Target Up.
WMT ✓+18.32%
COST +13.82%
Op. Margin
WMT ✓4.22%
COST 3.67%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/22/2026
Quick take
WMT vs COST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Walmart and Costco are both grocery and consumer staples retail giants but with very different business models. Walmart competes on EDLP price leadership at scale; Costco earns profit from memberships and sells merchandise near-cost. Both are among the most durable consumer retail businesses. Walmart's scale and advertising transformation give it multiple growth vectors; Costco's membership model creates a unique profit structure that competitors cannot easily replicate. Both trade at quality premiums.
WMT vs COST is the world's largest retailer transforming EDLP grocery dominance into membership (Walmart+) and advertising (Walmart Connect) higher-margin revenue while maintaining essential weekly consumer traffic (Walmart) versus the membership warehouse compounder whose $5B+ fee income enables near-cost merchandise pricing, creating irreplaceable consumer loyalty and 93%+ renewal (Costco) — retail scale transformation vs membership fee model monopoly.
Live analysis · updated 6/22/2026
WMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT leads on both 1-year return (+24.33%) and forward P/E (35.65x vs 42.05x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while WMT maintains the higher operating margin (4.22%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WMT (+18.32%) than for COST (+13.82%).
Normalized 1Y performance
WMT
COST
Recent returns
WMT
COST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
WMT · 40 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$64.00
analyst mean$138.65
current price$117.18
+18.3% upside to analyst mean
COST · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$620.00
analyst high$1,225.00
analyst mean$1,082.94
current price$951.45
+13.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
WMT may suit investors who:
- →prefer the world's largest retailer with grocery market leadership, advertising transformation toward higher-margin revenue, and essential weekly consumer traffic defensiveness
- →value Walmart's multi-growth-vector transformation: Walmart+, Walmart Connect advertising, and international markets provide multiple upside drivers beyond traditional retail
- →want recession-resilient consumer staples exposure with the most powerful retail procurement scale in existence providing structural COGS advantages
- →are comfortable with Amazon grocery competition, e-commerce profitability build-out costs, and international market complexity across diverse geographies
COST may suit investors who:
- →prefer the uniquely structured membership warehouse model where $5B+ fee revenue enables near-cost merchandise selling — a business model competitors literally cannot copy without becoming Costco
- →value Costco's 93%+ membership renewal as one of the most exceptional consumer loyalty metrics in retail — members do not leave
- →want high-quality consumer staples compounding at a premium valuation from one of retail's best management teams and most durable business models
- →are comfortable with 45–55x P/E premium requiring flawless execution, limited e-commerce format, and international warehouse expansion being the primary new unit driver
Performance & AI score
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 53.3 | 60.4 |
| AI rank | #305 | #154 |
| Latest close | $117.18 | $951.45 |
| 1M return | -12.68% | -13.06% |
| 6M return | +1.31% | +10.29% |
| 1Y return | +24.33% | -2.69% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.32K (+23.2%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.76K (-2.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $28.84K (+188.4%) started 2021-06-21 | $27.11K (+171.1%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $69.43K (+594.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $85.42K (+754.2%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $932.53B | $421.95B |
| Trailing P/E | 41.26 | 47.84 |
| Forward P/E | 35.65 | 42.05 |
| Price/Sales | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Analyst target | $138.65 | $1,082.94 |
| Target upside | +18.32% | +13.82% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.30% | 21.50% |
| Earnings growth | 19.40% | 45.50% |
| EPS growth | +19.40% | +45.50% |
| FCF margin | +0.95% | +2.37% |
| Operating margin | 4.22% | 3.67% |
| Profit margin | 3.14% | 3.01% |
| ROIC proxy | 24.13% | 29.15% |
| Return on equity | 24.13% | 29.15% |
| Dividend yield | 0.84% | 0.62% |
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| Debt/equity | 74.82 | 60.26 |
| Current ratio | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| Quick ratio | 0.19 | 0.56 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
WMT max drawdown15.75%
COST max drawdown15.38%
WMT max wkly drop11.67%
COST max wkly drop8.96%
5Y risk snapshot
WMT max drawdown25.74%
COST max drawdown31.40%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
10Y risk snapshot
WMT max drawdown25.74%
COST max drawdown31.40%
WMT max wkly drop19.49%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +23.23% | -2.41% |
| CAGR | +23.27% | -2.41% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.81 | -0.27 | |
| Max drawdown | 15.75% | 15.38% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.27% | 3.91% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.67% | 8.96% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +172.44% | +158.18% |
| CAGR | +22.23% | +20.92% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.83 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.74% | 31.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.38% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.49% | 16.26% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +482.04% | +616.52% |
| CAGR | +19.27% | +21.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.71 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.74% | 31.40% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.38% | 12.45% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.49% | 16.26% |
Business comparison
| Category | WMT | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Walmart Inc. | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Walmart is the world's largest retailer with 10,500+ stores in 19 countries, serving 90% of Americans within 10 miles of a Walmart location. Walmart's Everyday Low Price (EDLP) model and grocery dominance create essential weekly consumer traffic. Walmart+ membership, Walmart Connect advertising, and e-commerce are transforming Walmart's margin profile beyond thin-margin traditional retail. Walmart's scale enables supplier negotiating power unmatched by any competitor — enabling consistently low prices that sustain consumer traffic through economic cycles. | Costco operates warehouse membership retail where annual fees ($65–$130) fund the majority of Costco's profit — allowing merchandise to be sold near-cost. With 876+ warehouses across the US, Canada, UK, and Asia, Costco serves 130M+ cardholders. Costco's Kirkland Signature private label ($60B+ annual sales) exceeds most CPG companies' brands in consumer trust. Costco's 93%+ membership renewal rate is among the highest loyalty metrics in retail. Costco's treasure hunt merchandise plus everyday staples creates an experience consumers engage with repeatedly. |
| Investor focus | Investors track US comp sales and traffic, Walmart+ membership, Walmart Connect advertising growth, and international markets (including Flipkart India). | Investors track membership fee revenue growth, membership renewal rates, same-store sales, and Costco's international expansion (especially Japan, Korea, Australia). |
WMT strengths
- →Grocery market leadership creates irreplaceable daily/weekly traffic — Americans buy food multiple times per week, and Walmart's EDLP grocery positioning is the #1 or #2 grocery option for most US consumers
- →Advertising business transformation: Walmart Connect retail media is one of the fastest-growing ad platforms — monetizing 150M+ weekly US shopper intent data without Google or Meta mediation
- →Scale in procurement creates structural COGS advantages — Walmart's $500B+ annual purchase volume compresses supplier prices below any competitor's cost structure
COST strengths
- →Membership fee profit model is structurally unique: Costco earns $5B+ annually just from memberships — allowing it to sell merchandise at near-cost, making it literally impossible for competitors to match Costco's pricing without copying the membership model
- →Kirkland Signature is the most trusted private label brand in retail — consumers actively seek Kirkland products rather than tolerating them as a substitution
- →International expansion creates decades of warehouse count growth opportunities — Costco's model works in Japan, UK, Korea, and Australia with strong international renewal rates
Risks to watch — WMT
- →Amazon's grocery expansion through Whole Foods, Amazon Fresh, and Prime grocery delivery competes for Walmart's core grocery share
- →Walmart's DTC/e-commerce profitability remains lower than physical stores — building e-commerce infrastructure requires significant ongoing investment
- →International market complexity: Walmart's international segment includes Flipkart (India), China, Mexico, and other markets with varying performance and strategic clarity
Risks to watch — COST
- →Costco's valuation is permanently elevated: at 45–55x P/E, the stock prices in perfection — any comp deceleration or renewal rate dip creates outsized stock reactions
- →E-commerce is not Costco's strength — online ordering (Costco.com) exists but the treasure hunt experience that drives warehouse visits doesn't translate perfectly to digital
- →Membership fee increases (Costco raised fees in 2024 for first time since 2017) must be accepted by 93%+ of renewing members or risk the loyalty that makes Costco's model work
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