LIVE
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Staples
$951.45
-13.06% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
TGT
Target Corporation · Consumer Discretionary
$130.74
+2.75% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
COST
2
TGT
3
Comparison scoreboard
TGT LEADS 3/5AI Score
COST ✓60.4
TGT 48.6
1Y Return
COST -2.69%
TGT ✓+37.59%
Fwd P/E
COST 43.42
TGT ✓15.19
Target Up.
COST ✓+10.18%
TGT -2.53%
Op. Margin
COST 3.67%
TGT ✓4.52%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
COST vs TGT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Costco and Target are both US large-format retailers but with very different business models and risk profiles. Costco's membership fee model creates a unique profit structure that makes it one of the best retail businesses ever created. Target is a conventional mass retailer with discretionary merchandise exposure creating more economic sensitivity. Costco is consistently one of the highest-quality retail compounders; Target is a quality retailer with more cyclical exposure.
COST vs TGT is the warehouse membership compounder whose $5B+ membership fee revenue lets it sell merchandise at near-cost creating irreplaceable member loyalty and near-perfect renewal rates (Costco) versus the 'cheap chic' discretionary mass retailer with design-forward private labels and omnichannel convenience facing discretionary demand sensitivity (Target) — membership fee model monopoly vs discretionary style-value retail.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TGT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TGT leads on both 1-year return (+37.59%) and forward P/E (15.19x vs 43.42x for COST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COST is growing revenue faster (21.50%), while TGT maintains the higher operating margin (4.52%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COST (+10.18%) than for TGT (-2.53%).
Normalized 1Y performance
COST
TGT
Recent returns
COST
TGT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
COST · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$620.00
analyst high$1,225.00
analyst mean$1,082.33
current price$951.45
+10.2% upside to analyst mean
TGT · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$80.00
analyst high$135.00
analyst mean$131.81
current price$130.74
-2.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
COST may suit investors who:
- →prefer the most loyal membership-driven retail business model where 93%+ renewal rates and Kirkland Signature brand trust create one of retail's most durable competitive positions
- →value Costco's profit structure where membership fees generate operating profit allowing merchandise sales near-cost — competitors literally cannot match Costco pricing without losing money
- →want consistent quality retail compounding at a premium valuation from one of the most respected management teams in retail history
- →are comfortable with 45–55x P/E premium leaving no margin for error, modest e-commerce presence vs pure digital retailers, and membership fee growth dependence on new warehouse openings
TGT may suit investors who:
- →prefer the 'cheap chic' mass retailer with design-differentiated private labels (Cat & Jack, A New Day, Threshold) attracting higher-income discretionary shoppers seeking style at value prices
- →value Target's recovery thesis if discretionary demand normalizes after inventory and margin compression, restoring historical operating margins
- →want mass retail exposure with omnichannel convenience (same-day Drive Up, Shipt) and Circle loyalty program competing directly with Amazon and Walmart delivery
- →are comfortable with discretionary category sensitivity in recessions, shrink/organized retail crime operating cost headwinds, and brand positioning risks from merchandise controversy
Performance & AI score
| Metric | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 60.4 | 48.6 |
| AI rank | #154 | #548 |
| Latest close | $951.45 | $130.74 |
| 1M return | -13.06% | +2.75% |
| 6M return | +10.29% | +32.60% |
| 1Y return | -2.69% | +37.59% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.76K (-2.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $13.74K (+37.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $27.11K (+171.1%) started 2021-06-21 | $7K (-30.0%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $85.42K (+754.2%) started 2016-06-20 | $33.4K (+234.0%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $435.65B | $61.42B |
| Trailing P/E | 49.51 | 17.86 |
| Forward P/E | 43.42 | 15.19 |
| Price/Sales | 1.67 | 0.42 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.48 | 0.72 |
| Analyst target | $1,082.33 | $131.81 |
| Target upside | +10.18% | -2.53% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 21.50% | 6.70% |
| Earnings growth | 45.50% | -24.70% |
| EPS growth | +45.50% | -24.70% |
| FCF margin | +2.37% | +2.95% |
| Operating margin | 3.67% | 4.52% |
| Profit margin | 3.01% | 3.24% |
| ROIC proxy | 29.15% | 22.02% |
| Return on equity | 29.15% | 22.02% |
| Dividend yield | 0.60% | 3.43% |
| Beta | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| Debt/equity | 60.26 | 117.55 |
| Current ratio | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Quick ratio | 0.56 | 0.18 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown15.38%
TGT max drawdown22.11%
COST max wkly drop8.96%
TGT max wkly drop8.78%
5Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
TGT max drawdown65.22%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
10Y risk snapshot
COST max drawdown31.40%
TGT max drawdown65.22%
COST max wkly drop16.26%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -2.41% | +37.45% |
| CAGR | -2.41% | +37.51% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.27 | 1.07 | |
| Max drawdown | 15.38% | 22.11% | |
| Max daily drop | 3.91% | 6.33% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.96% | 8.78% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +158.18% | -37.65% |
| CAGR | +20.92% | -9.03% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 65.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 24.93% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 30.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +616.52% | +148.80% |
| CAGR | +21.78% | +9.55% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.80 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 31.40% | 65.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.45% | 24.93% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.26% | 30.35% |
Business comparison
| Category | COST | TGT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation | Target Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Costco operates warehouse membership retail — customers pay annual membership fees ($65–$130) for access to Costco's warehouse stores selling bulk merchandise at thin margins over cost. Costco's business model is unique: the majority of its operating profit comes from membership fee revenue (~$5B annually), not merchandise margins. This allows Costco to sell products near cost, creating extraordinary value for members and driving the highest membership renewal rates (93%+) in retail. Costco's Kirkland Signature private label creates additional margin and member loyalty. | Target is a mass retail chain with 1,900+ US stores known for affordable style (apparel, home décor, beauty) alongside everyday essentials (grocery, household, pets). Target differentiates from Walmart through its 'cheap chic' merchandise — owning designer brand collaborations and exclusive product lines that attract higher-income shoppers seeking value with style. Target's Circle loyalty program provides personalized offers. Target's discretionary revenue concentration (~50% apparel, home, hardlines) makes it more economically sensitive than pure-grocery retailers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track membership fee revenue and renewal rates, same-store sales, and Costco's ability to grow membership penetration globally. | Investors track comparable sales and traffic, discretionary category performance, inventory management, operating margin recovery, and grocery/consumables share. |
COST strengths
- →Membership fee revenue model is uniquely durable — Costco earns profit from subscriptions regardless of merchandise margins, creating a profit structure that makes Costco immune to price competition
- →93%+ membership renewal rate is one of the highest consumer loyalty metrics in retail — Costco members renew because the value proposition ($1 hot dog + soda still $1.50 since 1985) is undeniable
- →Kirkland Signature private label exceeds $60B in annual sales — a brand more trusted by consumers than most CPG companies' own products
TGT strengths
- →'Cheap chic' brand positioning attracts higher-income discretionary shoppers who value design aesthetics — a differentiated market position vs Walmart's value-only positioning
- →Target Circle loyalty and same-day fulfillment (Order Pickup, Drive Up, Shipt) create omnichannel convenience matching Amazon and Walmart delivery
- →Private label brand portfolio across home, apparel, and food provides margin expansion vs national brand product mix
Risks to watch — COST
- →Costco's valuation is permanently premium — trading at 45–55x P/E, Costco's perfect business commands a multiple that leaves little room for execution misses
- →E-commerce integration is Costco's relative weakness — the warehouse format is inherently physical and building online without cannibalizing membership value is an ongoing challenge
- →Grocery and gasoline inflation sensitivity: when food prices normalize, Costco's perceived value proposition changes — members may perceive less savings vs regular retail
Risks to watch — TGT
- →Discretionary category concentration creates significant recession sensitivity — Target underperforms Walmart and Costco during economic contractions as consumers defer apparel and home purchases
- →Target's DEI and product controversy backlash (2023 Pride merchandise) caused Target to strategically reduce certain product categories — the brand positioning consequences are ongoing
- →Shrink and organized retail crime have elevated Target's inventory losses — store security investments add operating costs while theft remains structurally elevated vs pre-pandemic
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