LITE vs COHR: Which Photonics Stock Has More Upside?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lumentum is a focused photonics pure-play with exposure to telecom, datacom, and 3D sensing, while Coherent is a larger, more diversified photonics platform with strong AI networking transceiver momentum and a meaningful balance sheet deleveraging story. Both benefit from AI-driven demand for high-speed optical networking, but differ in scale, leverage, and end-market breadth.
Use this LITE vs COHR comparison to evaluate two distinct ways to invest in the AI-driven photonics opportunity. LITE offers a focused, lower-leverage approach; COHR combines broader platform scale with significant earnings upside if deleveraging and AI datacom growth continue to compound.
LITE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LITE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+1152.08% vs +379.84%), though COHR trades at the lower forward P/E (44.65x vs 47.23x). LITE leads on both revenue growth (90.10%) and operating margin (21.77%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LITE (+29.21%) than for COHR (+5.30%).
- →Want a focused pure-play on photonics and optical networking without conglomerate complexity
- →Prefer a cleaner balance sheet with lower leverage relative to COHR
- →Believe 3D sensing recovery and telecom normalization can add incremental upside
- →Want a smaller-cap option with operating leverage as volumes and margins recover
- →Want the largest diversified photonics platform with leading AI networking transceiver exposure
- →Believe ongoing debt reduction will significantly increase earnings per share over time
- →Are comfortable with business complexity spanning networking, industrial, and EV markets
- →Want optionality from compound semiconductors and silicon carbide for EV power electronics
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 85.3 | 81.0 |
| AI rank | #3 | #7 |
| Latest close | $905.00 | $362.90 |
| 1M return | -4.73% | +10.14% |
| 6M return | +178.32% | +120.93% |
| 1Y return | +1152.08% | +379.84% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $119.3K (+1093.0%) started 2025-06-02 | $47.26K (+372.6%) started 2025-06-02 |
| 5Y ago | $113.04K (+1030.4%) started 2021-06-01 | $53.67K (+436.7%) started 2021-06-01 |
| 10Y ago | $356.86K (+3468.6%) started 2016-06-01 | $179.39K (+1693.9%) started 2016-06-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $66.52B | $70.72B |
| Trailing P/E | 151.59 | 172.13 |
| Forward P/E | 47.23 | 44.65 |
| Price/Sales | 40.44 | 12.17 |
| EV/Revenue | 24.69 | 10.91 |
| Analyst target | $1,104.68 | $380.62 |
| Target upside | +29.21% | +5.30% |
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 90.10% | 20.50% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | 27548.00% |
| EPS growth | N/A | +27548.00% |
| FCF margin | +3.75% | -2.99% |
| Operating margin | 21.77% | 13.57% |
| Profit margin | 17.68% | 7.10% |
| ROIC proxy | 22.83% | 4.72% |
| Return on equity | 22.83% | 4.72% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | N/A |
| Beta | 1.53 | 2.05 |
| Debt/equity | 111.44 | 31.09 |
| Current ratio | 1.14 | 3.05 |
| Quick ratio | 0.94 | 1.71 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +1092.99% | +372.65% |
| CAGR | +1103.19% | +375.18% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 3.35 | 2.54 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.70% | 26.52% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.19% | 19.61% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.33% | 24.71% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +1030.40% | +436.68% |
| CAGR | +62.43% | +39.95% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.04 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.48% | 62.87% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.46% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly drop | 24.54% | 30.16% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +3468.61% | +1693.87% |
| CAGR | +42.98% | +33.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.84 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.89% | 72.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 32.98% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.75% | 32.69% |
| Category | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Coherent Corp. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Optical and photonic products for telecom networks, datacom transceivers (800G+), 3D sensing, and commercial lasers. | Compound semiconductors, high-speed datacom/telecom transceivers (800G, 1.6T), industrial lasers, and silicon carbide for EV power electronics. |
| Investor focus | Datacom transceiver ramp, 3D sensing recovery, telecom cycle, and operating leverage as volumes scale. | AI datacom transceiver leadership, balance sheet deleveraging from the II-VI merger, and compound semiconductor platform margins. |
- →Focused pure-play photonics exposure across telecom, datacom, and sensing
- →Growing datacom transceiver share from AI-driven networking demand (800G+)
- →Asset-light model with meaningful operating leverage potential as revenue recovers
- →Leading high-speed transceiver platform for AI networking infrastructure (800G, 1.6T)
- →Diversified end markets across networking, industrial lasers, and EV/power electronics
- →Deleveraging story: debt reduction from the II-VI/Coherent merger drives earnings upside over time
- →Telecom end market remains cyclical and is recovering from a prolonged downcycle
- →3D sensing revenue is concentrated in Apple product cycles
- →Intense competition in datacom transceivers from COHR, Inphi, and others
- →Significant debt load from acquisitions limits financial flexibility near term
- →Integration complexity across multiple merged businesses creates execution risk
- →Cyclicality across industrial laser and compound semiconductor end markets
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