LIVE
NIO
NIO Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$5.01
-3.84% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
XPEV
XPeng Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$13.39
-7.59% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NIO
2
XPEV
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
NIO ✓26.4
XPEV 24.4
1Y Return
NIO ✓+20.14%
XPEV -24.09%
Fwd P/E
NIO 4.27
XPEV ✓3.43
Target Up.
NIO +47.05%
XPEV ✓+68.51%
Op. Margin
NIO N/A
XPEV N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
NIO vs XPEV: NIO vs XPeng Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NIO differentiates through its battery swap ecosystem and battery-as-a-service model targeting premium buyers, while XPeng differentiates through its XNGP AI-powered autonomous driving system and Volkswagen technology partnership. Both compete in China's intensely competitive EV market against BYD and Tesla with different strategic approaches.
NIO vs XPEV is battery swap ecosystem premium EV versus AI-first autonomous driving EV — NIO wins if battery swap becomes the preferred EV ownership model in China; XPeng wins if XNGP intelligent driving becomes a decisive differentiator that drives brand loyalty and technology licensing.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
NIO and XPEV are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. NIO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+20.14% vs -24.09%), though XPEV has the better forward P/E setup (3.43x vs 4.27x for NIO). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for XPEV (+68.51%) than for NIO (+47.05%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NIO
XPEV
Recent returns
NIO
XPEV
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NIO · 24 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$4.03
analyst high$10.02
analyst mean$7.37
current price$5.01
+47.0% upside to analyst mean
XPEV · 26 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$15.08
analyst high$30.05
analyst mean$22.56
current price$13.39
+68.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NIO may suit investors who:
- →believe battery swap is a durable competitive advantage in China's EV market
- →want exposure to both NIO premium and ONVO mass-market brands as a portfolio of EV segments
- →are comfortable with heavy capex, negative margins, and a long path to profitability
- →prefer NIO's community-centric brand strategy vs XPeng's technology-first positioning
XPEV may suit investors who:
- →believe XNGP autonomous driving will be a decisive purchasing factor in China
- →value the Volkswagen technology licensing partnership as revenue validation and manufacturing scale benefit
- →prefer a technology-differentiated EV company with software-defined vehicle upside
- →are comfortable with lower delivery volumes and technology execution risk in autonomous driving
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 26.4 | 24.4 |
| AI rank | #2613 | #3180 |
| Latest close | $5.01 | $13.39 |
| 1M return | -3.84% | -7.59% |
| 6M return | +3.30% | -38.32% |
| 1Y return | +20.14% | -24.09% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2025-07-14 | $7.59K (-24.1%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $1.16K (-88.4%) started 2021-07-14 | $3.55K (-64.5%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $7.59K (-24.1%) started 2018-09-12 | $6.31K (-36.9%) started 2020-08-27 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $12.55B | $12.81B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 4.27 | 3.43 |
| Price/Sales | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| Analyst target | $7.37 | $22.56 |
| Target upside | +47.05% | +68.51% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 112.20% | -17.60% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -9.09% | -3.06% |
| ROIC proxy | -83.96% | -7.64% |
| Return on equity | -83.96% | -7.64% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.90 | 1.11 |
| Debt/equity | 183.30 | 83.21 |
| Current ratio | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.63 | 0.66 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NIO max drawdown43.73%
XPEV max drawdown56.93%
NIO max wkly drop14.75%
XPEV max wkly drop23.84%
5Y risk snapshot
NIO max drawdown93.29%
XPEV max drawdown88.35%
NIO max wkly drop29.90%
XPEV max wkly drop27.42%
10Y risk snapshot
NIO max drawdown95.00%
XPEV max drawdown91.12%
NIO max wkly drop42.65%
XPEV max wkly drop27.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +20.14% | -24.09% |
| CAGR | +20.16% | -24.11% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | -0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.73% | 56.93% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.05% | 10.32% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.75% | 23.84% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -88.36% | -64.55% |
| CAGR | -34.96% | -18.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.32 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 93.29% | 88.35% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.07% | 15.04% | |
| Max wkly drop | 29.90% | 27.42% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -24.09% | -36.90% |
| CAGR | -3.46% | -7.53% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.31 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdown | 95.00% | 91.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.16% | 15.08% | |
| Max wkly drop | 42.65% | 27.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | NIO | XPEV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NIO Inc. | XPeng Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer offering sedans and SUVs (ET5, ET7, EC6, ES8) under the NIO brand, plus more affordable vehicles under the ONVO sub-brand. NIO is known for its battery swap network, NIO House community centers, and battery-as-a-service subscription model. | Chinese EV manufacturer with a technology-first strategy centered on its XNGP intelligent driving system, one of the most advanced autonomous driving stacks in China. XPeng offers sedans and SUVs targeting tech-savvy buyers, with Volkswagen partnership providing manufacturing scale. |
| Investor focus | Monthly vehicle delivery volumes, NIO vs ONVO brand ramp, gross margin improvement, battery swap network expansion, and path to profitability. | XNGP autonomous driving adoption and differentiation, VW technology licensing revenue, vehicle delivery volumes and mix, and gross margin trajectory. |
NIO strengths
- →Battery swap network is a unique competitive advantage — NIO operators can swap a depleted battery for a full one in minutes at swap stations across China
- →Battery-as-a-service subscription decouples battery cost from vehicle purchase price, making NIO vehicles more price-competitive
- →ONVO sub-brand targets the mass market below NIO's premium positioning, significantly expanding the addressable market
XPEV strengths
- →XNGP is among China's most advanced highway-to-urban autonomous driving systems, providing a meaningful technology moat vs non-AI EV competitors
- →Volkswagen partnership provides technology licensing revenue and validation of XPeng's smart driving stack
- →Software-defined vehicle approach positions XPeng for over-the-air updates that improve driving capability post-purchase
Risks to watch — NIO
- →NIO's gross margins remain negative or barely positive on vehicles — path to profitability is slow
- →Heavy capex on battery swap stations and NIO Houses creates high cash burn relative to revenue
- →BYD and Tesla are intense competitors in China's EV market with better scale economics
Risks to watch — XPEV
- →XPeng's autonomous driving advantage is hard to sustain as Huawei ADS, BYD, and NIO all invest heavily in smart driving
- →Vehicle delivery volumes remain far below Tesla and BYD, limiting scale manufacturing advantages
- →VW partnership technology licensing is meaningful but small relative to vehicle revenue
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