LIVE
TGT
Target Corporation · Consumer Discretionary
$130.74
+2.75% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
KR
The Kroger Co. · Consumer Staples
$56.61
-19.82% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TGT
3
KR
2
Comparison scoreboard
TGT LEADS 3/5AI Score
TGT ✓48.6
KR 41.0
1Y Return
TGT ✓+37.59%
KR -14.16%
Fwd P/E
TGT 15.19
KR ✓11.53
Target Up.
TGT -2.53%
KR ✓+16.46%
Op. Margin
TGT ✓4.52%
KR 3.44%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
TGT vs KR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Target and Kroger are both large US retailers but with dramatically different category exposure and economic sensitivity. Target's ~50% discretionary exposure (apparel, home, electronics) makes it more economically cyclical; Kroger's ~90% grocery focus makes it among the most recession-resilient large retailers. Target offers better upside in consumer confidence growth; Kroger offers defensive stability through all economic cycles.
TGT vs KR is the mass retailer with design-forward discretionary merchandise creating style-value differentiation but creating economic cyclicality (Target) versus the pure-play grocery market leader with recession-resilient food retailing, fuel rewards loyalty, and personalized digital pricing (Kroger) — discretionary style retail vs essential grocery income stability.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TGT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TGT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+37.59% vs -14.16%), though KR trades at the lower forward P/E (11.53x vs 15.19x). TGT leads on both revenue growth (6.70%) and operating margin (4.52%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KR (+16.46%) than for TGT (-2.53%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TGT
KR
Recent returns
TGT
KR
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TGT · 32 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$80.00
analyst high$135.00
analyst mean$131.81
current price$130.74
-2.5% upside to analyst mean
KR
Price target range
analyst mean$75.36
current price$56.61
+16.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TGT may suit investors who:
- →prefer the style-differentiated mass retailer attracting higher-income discretionary shoppers with design-forward private labels and 'cheap chic' positioning
- →value Target's recovery upside as discretionary demand normalizes and operating margins recover toward historical levels
- →want omnichannel mass retail exposure with same-day Drive Up and beauty category strength creating high-frequency consumer touch points
- →are comfortable with discretionary category economic sensitivity, grocery share weakness vs Walmart and Kroger, and shrink/organized retail crime operational headwinds
KR may suit investors who:
- →prefer the pure-play grocery market leader whose food-essential revenue base is among the most recession-resilient of any large retailer
- →value Kroger's personalized digital loyalty and fuel rewards creating grocery consumer lock-in and regular store traffic
- →want defensive consumer staples exposure from the largest US supermarket chain with private label breadth and procurement scale advantages
- →are comfortable with limited organic growth rate in mature grocery market, Amazon Fresh and Aldi competitive pressure, and unionized labor cost structure limiting margin flexibility
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 48.6 | 41.0 |
| AI rank | #548 | #992 |
| Latest close | $130.74 | $56.61 |
| 1M return | +2.75% | -19.82% |
| 6M return | +32.60% | -11.28% |
| 1Y return | +37.59% | -14.16% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.74K (+37.4%) started 2025-06-18 | $8.64K (-13.6%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $7K (-30.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $17.04K (+70.4%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $33.4K (+234.0%) started 2016-06-20 | $24.05K (+140.5%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $61.42B | $39.9B |
| Trailing P/E | 17.86 | 42.02 |
| Forward P/E | 15.19 | 11.53 |
| Price/Sales | 0.42 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 0.72 | 0.49 |
| Analyst target | $131.81 | $75.36 |
| Target upside | -2.53% | +16.46% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 6.70% | 1.20% |
| Earnings growth | -24.70% | 50.90% |
| EPS growth | -24.70% | +50.90% |
| FCF margin | +2.95% | +2.30% |
| Operating margin | 4.52% | 3.44% |
| Profit margin | 3.24% | 0.69% |
| ROIC proxy | 22.02% | 14.41% |
| Return on equity | 22.02% | 14.41% |
| Dividend yield | 3.43% | 2.16% |
| Beta | 0.99 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equity | 117.55 | 415.97 |
| Current ratio | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Quick ratio | 0.18 | 0.30 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown22.11%
KR max drawdown25.12%
TGT max wkly drop8.78%
KR max wkly drop11.71%
5Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown65.22%
KR max drawdown31.07%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
KR max wkly drop11.71%
10Y risk snapshot
TGT max drawdown65.22%
KR max drawdown46.25%
TGT max wkly drop30.35%
KR max wkly drop27.58%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +37.45% | -13.60% |
| CAGR | +37.51% | -13.62% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.07 | -0.52 | |
| Max drawdown | 22.11% | 25.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.33% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.78% | 11.71% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -37.65% | +55.85% |
| CAGR | -9.03% | +9.30% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.21 | 0.30 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.22% | 31.07% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.93% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.35% | 11.71% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +148.80% | +96.30% |
| CAGR | +9.55% | +6.98% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.31 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.22% | 46.25% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.93% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.35% | 27.58% |
Business comparison
| Category | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Target Corporation | The Kroger Co. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | N/A |
| Core business | Target operates 1,900+ US mass retail stores selling discretionary merchandise (apparel, home décor, electronics) alongside everyday essentials (grocery, household, beauty). Target's 'cheap chic' positioning attracts higher-income value shoppers through designer collaborations and exclusive private labels. Target Circle loyalty and same-day Drive Up and Shipt delivery create omnichannel convenience. Approximately 50% of Target's revenue comes from discretionary categories — making it more economically sensitive than pure grocery retailers. | Kroger is the largest US supermarket chain by revenue, operating 2,700+ stores under Kroger, Fred Meyer, King Soopers, Ralphs, and other banners across 35 states. Kroger's business is ~90% grocery and food — one of the most essential and recession-resilient retail categories. Kroger's Boost membership, personalized digital coupons, and pharmacy services create loyalty. The proposed Kroger-Albertsons merger (blocked by FTC) would have created an even larger grocery entity; Kroger remains a standalone grocery powerhouse. Kroger's fuel rewards program drives traffic. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable traffic and ticket, discretionary vs consumables category mix, operating margin recovery, and omnichannel fulfillment adoption. | Investors track identical-store sales, fresh department performance, fuel reward program traffic, digital sales penetration, and private label (Simple Truth, Private Selection) penetration. |
TGT strengths
- →Design-differentiated private label brands (Cat & Jack, Threshold, A New Day) attract higher-income style-conscious shoppers creating trading-up behavior vs Walmart's pure-value positioning
- →Same-day Drive Up and Shipt delivery integrate digital convenience into Target's physical store footprint — stores as fulfillment centers
- →Beauty and personal care category strength creates high-frequency traffic — Target's beauty section competes with Ulta and Sephora for loyal beauty shoppers
KR strengths
- →Grocery is the most recession-resilient retail category — food is essential and Kroger's identical-store sales hold up through economic cycles better than any discretionary retailer
- →Scale in grocery procurement creates cost advantages — Kroger's buying power and private label development compress COGS creating food margin improvements
- →Personalized digital offers via Kroger app and loyalty data create pricing precision that national CPG brands cannot match at individual shopper level
Risks to watch — TGT
- →Discretionary category concentration creates significant economic sensitivity — apparel and home purchases decline rapidly during recessions
- →Grocery market share is weaker than Walmart and Kroger — Target's grocery selection is limited vs full-service grocery retailers
- →Organized retail crime and shrink elevated inventory losses and store profitability in recent years
Risks to watch — KR
- →Amazon Fresh, Walmart grocery pickup, and Aldi/Lidl hard discount compete intensely for grocery share across all income segments
- →Kroger's growth rate is inherently limited by the mature grocery market — without significant new store openings or acquisition, comp growth is the primary lever
- →Labor costs are a significant Kroger expense with unionized workforce making rapid cost structure changes difficult during inflationary periods
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